METHODS: A cohort study was conducted in 77,425 men and women free of NAFLD and metabolic abnormalities at baseline, who were followed-up annually or biennially for an average of 4.5 years. Being metabolically healthy was defined as not having any metabolic syndrome component and having a homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance <2.5. The presence of fatty liver was determined using ultrasound.
RESULTS: During 348,193.5 person-years of follow-up, 10,340 participants developed NAFLD (incidence rate, 29.7 per 1,000 person-years). The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident NAFLD comparing overweight and obese with normal-weight participants were 2.15 (2.06-2.26) and 3.55 (3.37-3.74), respectively. In detailed dose-response analyses, increasing baseline BMI showed a strong and approximately linear relationship with the incidence of NAFLD, with no threshold at no risk. This association was present in both men and women, although it was stronger in women (P for interaction <0.001), and it was evident in all clinically relevant subgroups evaluated, including participants with low inflammation status.
CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of strictly defined metabolically healthy men and women, overweight and obesity were strongly and progressively associated with an increased incidence of NAFLD, suggesting that the obese phenotype per se, regardless of metabolic abnormalities, can increase the risk of NAFLD.
METHODS: This multinational cohort study was conducted at 25 sites across 13 Asia-Pacific countries. We included adult patients aged 18 years or older with stable SLE who were receiving routine clinical care, had two or more visits and had attained stable disease at one or more visits. We categorised stable disease into: LLDAS (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K] score ≤4, Physician Global Assessment [PGA] ≤1, and prednisolone ≤7·5 mg/day); Definitions of Remission in SLE (DORIS) remission (clinical SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day); or complete remission on therapy (SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day). Stable disease categories were mutually exclusive. Tapering was defined as any decrease in dose of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy (mycophenolate mofetil, calcineurin inhibitors, azathioprine, leflunomide, or methotrexate). Using multivariable generalised estimating equations, we compared flares (SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index) at the subsequent visit after drug tapering. We used generalised estimating equations and Cox proportional hazard models to compare tapering attempts that had begun in LLDAS, remission, and complete remission.
FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2020, 4106 patients were recruited to the cohort, 3002 (73·1%) of whom were included in our analysis. 2769 (92·2%) participants were female, 233 (7·8%) were male, and 2636 (88·1%) of 2993 with ethnicity data available were Asian. The median age was 39·5 years (IQR 29·0-50·0). There were 14 808 patient visits for patients in LLDAS, or remission or complete remission, of which 13 140 (88·7%) entered the final multivariable model after excluding missing data. Among the 9863 visits at which patients continued the same therapy, 1121 (11·4%) flared at the next visit, of which 221 (19·7%) were severe flares. Of the 3277 visits at which a patient received a tapering of therapy, 557 (17·0%) flared at the next visit, of which 120 (21·5%) were severe flares. Tapering was associated with higher odds of flare compared with continuing the same therapy (odds ratio [OR] 1·24 [95% CI 1·10-1·39]; p=0·0005). Of 2095 continuous tapering attempts, 860 (41·1%) were initiated in LLDAS, 596 (28·4%) in remission, and 639 (30·5%) in complete remission. Tapering initiated in LLDAS (OR 1·37 [95% CI 1·03-1·81]; p=0·029) or remission (1·45 [1·08-1·94]; p=0·013) had higher odds of flare in 1 year compared with complete remission. Tapering in LLDAS (hazard ratio 1·24 [95% CI 1·04-1·48]; p=0·016) or remission (1·30 [1·08-1·56]; p=0·0054) had a significantly shorter time to first flare than tapering initiated in complete remission. Attaining sustained LLDAS, remission, or complete remission for at least 6 months just before the time of taper was associated with lower odds of flare at next visit, flares in 1 year, and longer time to flare.
INTERPRETATION: Tapering of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy in patients with stable SLE was associated with excess flares. Our findings suggest that drug tapering should be carefully considered, weighing the risks and benefits, and is best exercised in complete (clinical and serological) remission and after maintaining stable disease for at least 6 months.
FUNDING: AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lily, Janssen, Merck Serono, GSK, and UCB.
METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 22,210 adult men and women who underwent a comprehensive health screening examination between 2011 and 2013 (median age 40 years). Sugar-sweetened carbonated beverage consumption was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and CAC was measured by cardiac computed tomography. Multivariable-adjusted CAC score ratios and 95% CIs were estimated from robust Tobit regression models for the natural logarithm (CAC score +1).
RESULTS: The prevalence of detectable CAC (CAC score >0) was 11.7% (n = 2,604). After adjustment for age; sex; center; year of screening examination; education level; physical activity; smoking; alcohol intake; family history of cardiovascular disease; history of hypertension; history of hypercholesterolemia; and intake of total energy, fruits, vegetables, and red and processed meats, only the highest category of sugar-sweetened carbonated beverage consumption was associated with an increased CAC score compared with the lowest consumption category. The multivariable-adjusted CAC ratio comparing participants who consumed ≥5 sugar-sweetened carbonated beverages per week with nondrinkers was 1.70 (95% CI, 1.03-2.81). This association did not differ by clinical subgroup, including participants at low cardiovascular risk.
CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that high levels of sugar-sweetened carbonated beverage consumption are associated with a higher prevalence and degree of CAC in asymptomatic adults without a history of cardiovascular disease, cancer, or diabetes.
METHODS: We used data from a large multicenter, longitudinal SLE cohort in which patients received standard of care. The first visit with active disease (defined as SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K] score ≥6) was designated as baseline, and mSRI attainment (defined as a reduction in SLEDAI-2K ≥4 points with no worsening in physician global assessment ≥0.3 points) was determined at annual intervals from baseline up to 5 years. Associations between mSRI attainment and outcomes including disease activity, glucocorticoid dose, flare, damage accrual, Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), and remission were studied.
RESULTS: We included 2,060 patients, with a median baseline SLEDAI-2K score of 8. An mSRI response was attained by 56% of patients at 1 year, with similar responder rates seen at subsequent annual time points. Compared to nonresponders, mSRI responders had significantly lower disease activity and prednisolone dose and higher proportions of LLDAS and remission attainment at each year, and less damage accrual at years 2 and 3. Furthermore, mSRI responder status at 1 year predicted clinical benefit at subsequent years across most outcomes, including damage accrual (odds ratio [OR] range 0.58-0.69, P
METHODS: We included patients from a multicentre longitudinal cohort (recruited between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2019) with active SLE (SLEDAI-2K ≥6) coinciding with an abnormality in at least one of 13 routine laboratory tests, at a visit designated as baseline. At 12 months, we analysed associations between thresholds of improvement in individual laboratory test results, measured as continuous variables, and five clinical outcomes using logistic regression. Primary outcomes were damage accrual and lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS), and secondary outcomes were modified SLE responder index (mSRI), physician global assessment (PGA) improvement of at least 0·3, and flare.
FINDINGS: We included 1525 patients (1415 [93%] women and 110 [7%] men, 1328 [87%] Asian ethnicity) in separate subsets for each laboratory test. The strongest associations with LLDAS and damage protection were seen with improvements in proteinuria (complete response: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 62·48, 95% CI 18·79-208·31 for LLDAS, OR 0·22, 95% CI 0·10-0·49 for damage accrual), albumin (complete response: adjusted OR 6·46, 95% CI 2·20-18·98 for LLDAS, OR 0·42, 95% CI 0·20-1·22 for damage accrual), haemoglobin (complete response: adjusted OR 1·97, 95% CI 1·09-3·53 for LLDAS, OR 0·33, 95% CI 0·15-0·71 for damage accrual), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (complete response: adjusted OR 1·71, 95% CI 1·10-2·67 for LLDAS, OR 0·53, 95% CI 0·30-0·94 for damage accrual), and platelets (complete response: adjusted OR 4·82, 95% CI 1·54-15·07 for LLDAS, OR 0·49, 95% CI 0·20-1·19 for damage accrual). Improvement in serological tests were mainly associated with PGA and mSRI. White cell and lymphocyte count improvements were least predictive.
INTERPRETATION: Improvements in several routine laboratory tests correspond with clinical outcomes in SLE over 12 months. Tests with the strongest associations were discrepant with laboratory tests included in current trial endpoints, and associations were observed across a range of improvement thresholds including incomplete resolution. These findings suggest the need to revise the use of laboratory test results in SLE trial endpoints.
FUNDING: Abbvie.
METHODS: Data from a 13-country longitudinal SLE cohort were collected prospectively between 2013 and 2020. An inception cohort was defined based on disease duration <1 year at enrolment. Patient characteristics between inception and non-inception cohorts were compared. Survival analyses were performed to examine the association between LLDAS attainment and damage accrual and flare.
RESULTS: Of the total 4,106 patients, 680 (16%) were recruited within 1 year of SLE diagnosis (inception cohort). Compared to the non-inception cohort, inception cohort patients were significantly younger, had higher disease activity, used more glucocorticoids, but had less organ damage at enrolment. Significantly fewer inception cohort patients were in LLDAS at enrolment than the non-inception cohort (29.6% vs. 52.3%, p<0.001), but three quarters of both groups achieved LLDAS at least once during follow-up. Limiting analysis only to patients not in LLDAS at enrolment, inception cohort patients were 60% more likely to attain LLDAS (HR = 1.37 (95%CI: 1.16-1.61), p<0.001) than non-inception cohort patients and attained LLDAS significantly faster. LLDAS attainment was significantly protective against flare in both the inception and non-inception cohorts. A total of 88 (13.6%) inception cohort patients accrued damage during a median 2.2 years follow-up.
CONCLUSION: LLDAS attainment is protective from flare in recent onset SLE. Significant protection from damage accrual was not observed, due to low rates of damage accrual in the first years after SLE diagnosis.