OBJECTIVES: This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments.
METHODS: A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes.
SIGNIFICANCE: This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.
AIM: To evaluate the rate of relapse in perianal Crohn's disease (CD) after stopping anti-TNF therapy.
METHODS: Consecutive perianal CD patients treated with anti-TNF therapy with subsequent discontinuation were retrieved from prospective inflammatory bowel disease database of institutes in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore from 1997 to June 2019. Cumulative probability of perianal CD relapse was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method.
RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 89 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 65-173 months), 44 of the 78 perianal CD patients (56.4%) relapsed after stopping anti-TNF, defined as increased fistula drainage or recurrence of previously healed fistula, after stopping anti-TNF therapy. Cumulative probabilities of perianal CD relapse were 50.8%, 72.6% and 78.0% at 12, 36 and 60 months, respectively. Younger age at diagnosis of CD [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; P = .04] was associated with a higher chance of perianal CD relapse. Among those with perianal CD relapse (n = 44), retreatment with anti-TNF induced remission in 24 of 29 patients (82.8%). Twelve (27.3%) patients required defunctioning surgery and one (2.3%) required proctectomy. Maintenance with thiopurine was not associated with a reduced likelihood of relapse [HR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.58-2.12; P = .77]. Among the 17 patients who achieved radiological remission of perianal CD, five (35.3%) developed relapse after stopping anti-TNF therapy after a median of 6 months.
CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the perianal CD patients developed relapse after stopping anti-TNF therapy. Most regained response after resuming anti-TNF. However, more than one-fourth of the perianal CD patients with relapse required defunctioning surgery. Radiological assessment before stopping anti-TNF is crucial in perianal CD.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the effect of known causal risk factors for stillbirth, and to identify those that have a large proportion of their risk mediated through small for gestational age birth.
STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study used data from all births in the state of Queensland, Australia between 2000 and 2018. The total effects of exposures on the odds of stillbirth were determined using multivariable, clustered logistic regression models. Mediation analysis was performed using a counterfactual approach to determine the indirect effect and percentage of effect mediated through small for gestational age. For risk factors significantly mediated through small for gestational age, the relative risks of stillbirth were compared between small for gestational age and appropriate for gestational age infants. We also investigated the proportion of risk mediated via small for gestational age for late stillbirths (≥28 weeks).
RESULTS: The initial data set consisted of 1,105,612 births. After exclusions, the final study cohort constituted 925,053 births. Small for gestational age births occurred in 9.9% (91,859/925,053) of the study cohort. Stillbirths occurred in 0.5% of all births (4234/925,053) and 1.5% of small for gestational age births (1414/91,859). Births at ≥28 weeks occurred in 99.4% (919,650/925,053) of the study cohort and in 98.9% (90,804/91,859) of all small for gestational age births. Of the ≥28-week births, stillbirths occurred in 0.2% (2156/919,650) of all births and 0.8% (677/90,804) of the small for gestational age births. Overall, increased odds of stillbirth were significantly mediated through small for gestational age for age <20 years, low socioeconomic status, Indigenous ethnicity, birth in sub-Saharan and North Africa or the Middle East, smoking, nulliparity, multiple pregnancy, assisted conception, previous stillbirth, preeclampsia, and renal disease. Preeclampsia had the largest proportion mediated through small for gestational age (66.7%), followed by nulliparity (61.6%), smoking (29.4%), North-African or Middle Eastern ethnicity (27.6%), multiple pregnancy (26.3%), low socioeconomic status (25.8%), and Indigenous status (18.7%). Sensitivity analysis showed that for late stillbirths, the portions mediated through small for gestational age remained very similar for many of the risk factors.
CONCLUSION: Although small for gestational age is an important mediator between many pregnancy risk factors and stillbirth, mitigating the risk of small for gestational age is likely to be of value only when it is a major contributor in the pathway to fetal demise.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the risks of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and severe neonatal morbidity by comparing expectant management with delivery from 37+0 weeks of gestation.
STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study evaluating women with singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies at 37+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation in Queensland, Australia, delivered from 2000 to 2018. Rates of stillbirth, neonatal death, and severe neonatal morbidity were calculated for <3rd, 3rd to <10th, 10th to <25th, 25th to <90th, and ≥90th birthweight centiles. The composite risk of mortality with expectant management for an additional week in utero was compared with rates of neonatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity.
RESULTS: Of 948,895 singleton, term nonanomalous births, 813,077 occurred at 37+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. Rates of stillbirth increased with gestational age, with the highest rate observed in infants with birthweight below the third centile: 10.0 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval, 6.2-15.3) at 37+0 to 37+6 weeks, rising to 106.4 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval, 74.6-146.9) at 40+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. The rate of neonatal mortality was highest at 37+0 to 37+6 weeks for all birthweight centiles. The composite risk of expectant management rose sharply after 39+0 to 39+6 weeks, and was highest in infants with birthweight below the third centile (125.2/10,000; 95% confidence interval, 118.4-132.3) at 40+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. Balancing the risk of expectant management and delivery (neonatal mortality), the optimal timing of delivery for each birthweight centile was evaluated on the basis of relative risk differences. The rate of severe neonatal morbidity sharply decreased in the period between 37+0 to 37+6 and 38+0 to 38+6 weeks, particularly for infants with birthweight below the third centile.
CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the optimal time of birth is 37+0 to 37+6 weeks for infants with birthweight <3rd centile and 38+0 to 38+6 weeks' gestation for those with birthweight between the 3rd and 10th centile and >90th centile. For all other birthweight centiles, birth from 39+0 weeks is associated with the best outcomes. However, large numbers of planned births are required to prevent a single excess death. The healthcare costs and acceptability to women of potential universal policies of planned birth need to be carefully considered.
METHODS: We analyzed all rectal and colonic biopsies (n=268) for suspected HD identified from the records in the Pathology Department of Al-Sabah Hospital for the period between 1994 and 2004.
RESULTS: One hundred and two patients (87 males and 15 females) had histologically confirmed HD. Fifty-eight (57%) were neonates (<1 month of age), while 21% were more than 4 months old. The diagnosis was based on open biopsy in 11 cases and rectal biopsies in 91 cases. Nine patients with open biopsies presented as intestinal obstruction, necrotizing enterocolitis, or perforation. The extent of the disease was unknown in 13 patients. There were 67 males and 3 females with short segment HD. Nine had long segment, two ultra-short segment and eight total colonic aganglionosis (TCA). Five TCA cases involved the small intestine. A skip area was observed in two cases. Six patients had other anomalies. A positive family history for HD was established in three patients. Two of these were male siblings from a consanguineous marriage and had Waardenburg syndrome.
CONCLUSION: This study has highlighted an exceptionally strong male predominance of short segment and a relatively high frequency (5.6%) of small intestinal involvement in HD in Kuwait. These data call for a more detailed epidemiological study with special emphasis on genetics.
PATIENTS AND METHODS: With concern over its rising microbial resistance, we explored the association of empiric antibiotics choices with the hospital outcomes of patients treated for microbial proven K. pneumoniae pneumonia in an urban-based teaching hospital.
RESULTS: In 313 eligible cases reviewed retrospectively, hospital mortality and requirement for ventilation were 14.3% and 10.8% respectively. Empiric regimes that had in vitro resistance to at least one empiric antibiotic (n = 90) were associated with higher hospital mortality (23.3% vs. 10.8%, P = 0.004) with risk increased by about two-fold [Odds ratio (OR), 2.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3 to 4.8]. Regimes (n = 84) other than the commonly recommended "standard" regimes (a beta-lactam stable antibiotic with or without a acrolide) were associated with higher ventilation rates (16.7% vs. 8.8%, P = 0.047) with similar increased risk [OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 4.3].
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reiterate the clinical relevance of in vitro microbial resistance in adult K. pneumoniae pneumonia and support empiric regimes that contain beta-lactam stable antibiotics.
METHODS: Data from a 12-country longitudinal SLE cohort, collected prospectively between 2013 and 2020, were analysed. SLE patients with mSACQ defined as the state with serological activity (increased anti-dsDNA and/or hypocomplementemia) but without clinical activity, treated with ≤7.5 mg/day of prednisolone-equivalent GCs and not-considering duration, were studied. The risk of subsequent flare or damage accrual per 1 mg decrease of prednisolone was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models while adjusting for confounders. Observation periods were 2 years and censored if each event occurred.
RESULTS: Data from 1850 mSACQ patients were analysed: 742, 271 and 180 patients experienced overall flare, severe flare and damage accrual, respectively. Tapering GCs by 1 mg/day of prednisolone was not associated with increased risk of overall or severe flare: adjusted HRs 1.02 (95% CI, 0.99 to 1.05) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.004), respectively. Antimalarial use was associated with decreased flare risk. Tapering GCs was associated with decreased risk of damage accrual (adjusted HR 0.96, 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.99) in the patients whose initial prednisolone dosages were >5 mg/day.
CONCLUSIONS: In mSACQ patients, tapering GCs was not associated with increased flare risk. Antimalarial use was associated with decreased flare risk. Tapering GCs protected mSACQ patients treated with >5 mg/day of prednisolone against damage accrual. These findings suggest that cautious GC tapering is feasible and can reduce GC use in mSACQ patients.