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Fulltext Forecasting COVID-19 Case Trends Using SARIMA Models during the Third Wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Tan CV, Singh S, Lai CH, Zamri ASSM, Dass SC, Aris TB, et al.

Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2022 Jan 28;19(3).
PMID: 35162523 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031504

With many countries experiencing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, it is important to forecast disease trends to enable effective planning and implementation of control measures. This study aims to develop Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models using 593 data points and smoothened case and covariate time-series data to generate a 28-day forecast of COVID-19 case trends during the third wave in Malaysia. SARIMA models were developed using COVID-19 case data sourced from the Ministry of Health Malaysia's official website. Model training and validation was conducted from 22 January 2020 to 5 September 2021 using daily COVID-19 case data. The SARIMA model with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAE) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was selected to generate forecasts from 6 September to 3 October 2021. The best SARIMA model with a RMSE = 73.374, MAE = 39.716 and BIC = 8.656 showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases during the forecast period, wherein the observed daily cases were within the forecast range. The majority (89%) of the difference between the forecasted and observed values was well within a deviation range of 25%. Based on this work, we conclude that SARIMA models developed in this paper using 593 data points and smoothened data and sensitive covariates can generate accurate forecast of COVID-19 case trends.
Treatment of atrophic vaginitis with topical conjugated equine estrogens in postmenopausal Asian women

Raymundo N, Yu-cheng B, Zi-yan H, Lai CH, Leung K, Subramaniam R, et al.

Climacteric, 2004 Sep;7(3):312-8.
PMID: 15669556

We investigated the effects of 2 months of treatment with topical estrogens on atrophic vaginitis and gynecological health in Asian women.
Description of the COVID-19 epidemiology in Malaysia

Md Nadzri MN, Md Zamri ASS, Singh S, Sumarni MG, Lai CH, Tan CV, et al.

Front Public Health, 2024;12:1289622.
PMID: 38544725 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1289622

INTRODUCTION: Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, it has spread rapidly across the world and has resulted in recurrent outbreaks. This study aims to describe the COVID-19 epidemiology in terms of COVID-19 cases, deaths, ICU admissions, ventilator requirements, testing, incidence rate, death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and test positivity rate for each outbreak from the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 till endemicity of COVID-19 in 2022 in Malaysia.
METHODS: Data was sourced from the GitHub repository and the Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 website. The study period was from the beginning of the outbreak in Malaysia, which began during Epidemiological Week (Ep Wk) 4 in 2020, to the last Ep Wk 18 in 2022. Data were aggregated by Ep Wk and analyzed in terms of COVID-19 cases, deaths, ICU admissions, ventilator requirements, testing, incidence rate, death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and test positivity rate by years (2020 and 2022) and for each outbreak of COVID-19.
RESULTS: A total of 4,456,736 cases, 35,579 deaths and 58,906,954 COVID-19 tests were reported for the period from 2020 to 2022. The COVID-19 incidence rate, death rate, CFR and test positivity rate were reported at 1.085 and 0.009 per 1,000 populations, 0.80 and 7.57%, respectively, for the period from 2020 to 2022. Higher cases, deaths, testing, incidence/death rate, CFR and test positivity rates were reported in 2021 and during the Delta outbreak. This is evident by the highest number of COVID-19 cases, ICU admissions, ventilatory requirements and deaths observed during the Delta outbreak.
CONCLUSION: The Delta outbreak was the most severe compared to other outbreaks in Malaysia's study period. In addition, this study provides evidence that outbreaks of COVID-19, which are caused by highly virulent and transmissible variants, tend to be more severe and devastating if these outbreaks are not controlled early on. Therefore, close monitoring of key epidemiological indicators, as reported in this study, is essential in the control and management of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Malaysia.
Fulltext The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue cases in Malaysia

Md Iderus NH, Singh SSL, Ghazali SM, Zulkifli AA, Ghazali NAM, Lim MC, et al.

Front Public Health, 2023;11:1213514.
PMID: 37693699 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1213514

BACKGROUND: Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the transmission dynamics and distribution of dengue. Therefore, this study aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the geographic and demographic distribution of dengue incidence in Malaysia.
METHODS: This study analyzed dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2021 and COVID-19 confirmed cases from January 2020 to December 2021 which was divided into the pre (2014 to 2019) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) phases. The average annual dengue case incidence for geographical and demographic subgroups were calculated and compared between the pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic phases. In addition, Spearman rank correlation was performed to determine the correlation between weekly dengue and COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic phase.
RESULTS: Dengue trends in Malaysia showed a 4-year cyclical trend with dengue case incidence peaking in 2015 and 2019 and subsequently decreasing in the following years. Reductions of 44.0% in average dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase was observed at the national level. Higher dengue cases were reported among males, individuals aged 20-34 years, and Malaysians across both phases. Weekly dengue cases were significantly correlated (ρ = -0.901) with COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic.
CONCLUSION: There was a reduction in dengue incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase. Significant reductions were observed across all demographic groups except for the older population (>75 years) across the two phases.
Fulltext Symptomatology and health status in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Loh LC, Lai CH, Liew OH, Siow YY

Med J Malaysia, 2005 Dec;60(5):570-7.
PMID: 16515107

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a growing health problem worldwide and in Malaysia. Until recently, research on COPD has been slow and difficult, partly due to the huge heterogeneity of this disease, and its variable and imprecise definitions. To perform a descriptive study on a convenient sample of local patients with COPD treated in a state hospital in Malaysia. Fifty-two patients [mean (95% CI) age: 67 (63-70) years; 86% male: 38% Malays, 36% Chinese, 25% Indians; mean (95% CI) PEFR: 45 (40-51) % predicted normal] were interviewed. Clinico-demographic data was collected using a structured questionnaire and health-related quality of life was scored using St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). For analysis, patients were also divided into moderate (n=17) [PEFR 50% to 80%] and severe (n=35) [PEFR < 50%] disease groups. Except for education and total family income, demographic and comorbidity variables were comparable between the two groups of COPD severity. All except 9% of patients were current or ex-smokers. Breathlessness, not chronic bronchitis (i.e. cough and sputum), was the first ranking respiratory symptom in over 70% of the patients, whether currently or at early disease manifestation. Between 5 and 15% of the patients denied any symptom of chronic bronchitis as current or early stage symptoms. Duration of symptoms prior to the diagnosis varied considerably with about 9% having symptoms for over 10 years. Over 80% of the patients smoked for over 15 years before the onset of symptoms. Quality of life in patients with COPI) was generally poor and similar between both COPD severity groups. About one fifth of the patients had exacerbations more than 12 times a year. While many features described in our local patients are well recognized in COPD, the finding that 'chronic bronchitis' is not a prominent symptom in the current or past history may have important implications in the diagnosis of at risk individuals and patients with early disease requiring attention. More research is required to confirm and to understand this.
Fulltext Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models

Lim MC, Singh S, Lai CH, Gill BS, Kamarudin MK, Md Zamri ASS, et al.

Epidemiol Health, 2023;45:e2023093.
PMID: 37905314 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2023093

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
Size Preferences Uptake of Glycosilica Nanoparticles to MDA-MB-231 Cell

Li HY, Lin HC, Huang BJ, Kai Lo AZ, Saidin S, Lai CH

Langmuir, 2020 09 29;36(38):11374-11382.
PMID: 32902993 DOI: 10.1021/acs.langmuir.0c02297

Recently, studies on the development and investigation of carbohydrate-functionalized silica nanoparticles (NPs) and their biomedicine applications such as cell-specific targeting and bioimaging has been carried out extensively. Since the number of breast cancer patients has been growing in recent years, potential NPs were being studied in this project for targeting breast cancer cells. Mannose receptors can be found on the surface of MDA-MB-231, which is a kind of human breast cancer cell line. Therefore, we decorated a cyanine 3 fluorescent dye (Cy3) and mannosides on the surface of silica NPs for the purpose of imaging and targeting. Galactoside was also introduced onto the surface of silica NPs acting as a control sample. Various sizes of silica NPs were synthesized by using different amounts of ammonium to investigate the effect of the size of NPs on the cellular uptake rate. The physical properties of these NPs were characterized by scanning electron microscope, dynamic light scattering, and their zeta potential. Cellular experiments demonstrated that mannoside-modified NPs can be uptaken by MDA-MB-231. From the experiment, we found out that the best cellular uptake rate of nanoparticle size is about 250 nm. The MTT assay showed that Man@Cy3SiO2NPs are not cytotoxic, indicating they may have the potential for biomedical applications.
Fulltext Pan-Asian adapted ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients with endometrial cancer

Koppikar S, Oaknin A, Babu KG, Lorusso D, Gupta S, Wu LY, et al.

ESMO Open, 2023 Feb;8(1):100774.
PMID: 36696825 DOI: 10.1016/j.esmoop.2022.100774

The most recent version of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients with endometrial cancer was published in 2022. It was therefore decided, by both the ESMO and the Indian Society of Medical and Paediatric Oncology (ISMPO), to convene a virtual meeting in July 2022 to adapt the ESMO 2022 guidelines to take into account the variations in the management of endometrial cancer in Asia. These guidelines represent the consensus opinion of a panel of Asian experts representing the oncological societies of China (CSCO), India (ISMPO), Indonesia (ISHMO), Japan (JSMO), Korea (KSMO), Malaysia (MOS), the Philippines (PSMO), Singapore (SSO), Taiwan (TOS) and Thailand (TSCO). Voting was based on scientific evidence and was conducted independently of the current treatment practices and treatment access constraints in the different Asian countries, which were discussed when appropriate. The aim of this guideline manuscript is to provide guidance for the optimisation and harmonisation of the management of patients with endometrial cancer across the different regions of Asia, drawing on the evidence provided by Western and Asian trials whilst respecting the variations in clinical presentation, diagnostic practices including molecular profiling and disparities in access to therapeutic options, including drug approvals and reimbursement strategies.
Intrauterine Gardnerella vaginalis Infection Results in Fetal Growth Restriction and Alveolar Septal Hypertrophy in a Rabbit Model

Cheah FC, Lai CH, Tan GC, Swaminathan A, Wong KK, Wong YP, et al.

Front Pediatr, 2020;8:593802.
PMID: 33553066 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2020.593802

Background:Gardnerella vaginalis (GV) is most frequently associated with bacterial vaginosis and is the second most common etiology causing intrauterine infection after Ureaplasma urealyticum. Intrauterine GV infection adversely affects pregnancy outcomes, resulting in preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, and neonatal pneumonia. The knowledge of how GV exerts its effects is limited. We developed an in vivo animal model to study its effects on fetal development. Materials and Methods: A survival mini-laparotomy was conducted on New Zealand rabbits on gestational day 21 (28 weeks of human pregnancy). In each dam, fetuses in the right uterine horn received intra-amniotic 0.5 × 102 colony-forming units of GV injections each, while their littermate controls in the left horn received sterile saline injections. A second laparotomy was performed seven days later. Assessment of the fetal pups, histopathology of the placenta and histomorphometric examination of the fetal lung tissues was done. Results: Three dams with a combined total of 12 fetuses were exposed to intra-amniotic GV, and 9 fetuses were unexposed. The weights of fetuses, placenta, and fetal lung were significantly lower in the GV group than the saline-inoculated control group [mean gross weight, GV (19.8 ± 3.8 g) vs. control (27.9 ± 1.7 g), p < 0.001; mean placenta weight, GV (5.5 ± 1.0 g) vs. control (6.5 ± 0.7 g), p = 0.027; mean fetal lung weight, GV (0.59 ± 0.11 g) vs. control (0.91 ± 0.08 g), p = 0.002. There was a two-fold increase in the multinucleated syncytiotrophoblasts in the placenta of the GV group than their littermate controls (82.9 ± 14.9 vs. 41.6 ± 13.4, p < 0.001). The mean alveolar septae of GV fetuses was significantly thicker than the control (14.8 ± 2.8 μm vs. 12.4 ± 3.8 μm, p = 0.007). Correspondingly, the proliferative index in the interalveolar septum was 1.8-fold higher in the GV group than controls (24.9 ± 6.6% vs. 14.2 ± 2.9%, p = 0.011). The number of alveoli and alveolar surface area did not vary between groups. Discussion: Low-dose intra-amniotic GV injection induces fetal growth restriction, increased placental multinucleated syncytiotrophoblasts and fetal lung re-modeling characterized by alveolar septal hypertrophy with cellular proliferative changes. Conclusion: This intra-amniotic model could be utilized in future studies to elucidate the acute and chronic effects of GV intrauterine infections.