OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.
EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.
METHODS: We reanalyzed the empirical data from the Health Insurance Plan trial in 1963 to the UK age trial in 1991 and their follow-up data published until 2015. We first performed Bayesian conjugated meta-analyses on the heterogeneity of attendance rate, sensitivity, and over-detection and their impacts on advanced stage breast cancer and death from breast cancer across trials using Bayesian Poisson fixed- and random-effect regression model. Bayesian meta-analysis of causal model was then developed to assess a cascade of causal relationships regarding the impact of both attendance and sensitivity on 2 main outcomes.
RESULTS: The causes of heterogeneity responsible for the disparities across the trials were clearly manifested in 3 components. The attendance rate ranged from 61.3% to 90.4%. The sensitivity estimates show substantial variation from 57.26% to 87.97% but improved with time from 64% in 1963 to 82% in 1980 when Bayesian conjugated meta-analysis was conducted in chronological order. The percentage of over-detection shows a wide range from 0% to 28%, adjusting for long lead-time. The impacts of the attendance rate and sensitivity on the 2 main outcomes were statistically significant. Causal inference made by linking these causal relationships with emphasis on the heterogeneity of the attendance rate and sensitivity accounted for the variation in the reduction of advanced breast cancer (none-30%) and of mortality (none-31%). We estimated a 33% (95% CI: 24-42%) and 13% (95% CI: 6-20%) breast cancer mortality reduction for the best scenario (90% attendance rate and 95% sensitivity) and the poor scenario (30% attendance rate and 55% sensitivity), respectively.
CONCLUSION: Elucidating the scenarios from high to low performance and learning from the experiences of these trials helps screening policy-makers contemplate on how to avoid errors made in ineffective studies and emulate the effective studies to save women lives.
OBJECTIVE: We studied the incidence of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) in Asian patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery of the lower limbs.
PATIENTS/METHODS: We performed a prospective epidemiological study in 19 centers across Asia (China, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) in patients undergoing elective total hip replacement (THR), total knee replacement (TKR) or hip fracture surgery (HFS) without pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was the rate of DVT of the lower limbs documented objectively with bilateral ascending venography performed 6-10 days after surgery using a standardized technique and evaluated by a central adjudication committee unaware of local interpretation.
RESULTS: Overall, of 837 Asian patients screened for this survey, 407 (48.6%, aged 20-99 years) undergoing THR (n = 175), TKR (n = 136) or HFS (n = 96) were recruited in 19 centers. DVT was diagnosed in 121 of 295 evaluable patients [41.0%, (95% confidence interval (CI): 35.4-46.7)]. Proximal DVT was found in 30 patients [10.2% (7.0-14.2)]. Total DVT and proximal DVT rates were highest in TKR patients (58.1% and 17.1%, respectively), followed by HFS patients (42.0% and 7.2%, respectively), then THR patients (25.6% and 5.8%, respectively). DVT was more frequent in female patients aged at least 65 years. Pulmonary embolism was clinically suspected in 10 of 407 patients (2.5%) and objectively confirmed in two (0.5%).
CONCLUSIONS: The rate of venographic thrombosis in the absence of thromboprophylaxis after major joint surgery in Asian patients is similar to that previously reported in patients in Western countries.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medical records of 407 cervical cancer patients between 1st January 2002 to 31st December 2012 were reviewed. Some 32 cases with positive PALN were identified to have received definitive extended field radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. Treatment outcomes, clinicopathological factors affecting survival and radiotherapy related acute and late effects were analyzed.
RESULTS: Totals of 13 and 19 patients underwent EFRT and CCEFRT respectively during the period of review. The median follow-up was 70 months. The 5-year overall survival (OS) was 40% for patients who underwent CCEFRT as compared to 18% for patients who had EFRT alone, with median survival sof 29 months and 13 months, respectively. The 5-years progression free survival (PFS) for patients who underwent CCEFRT was 32% and 18% for those who had EFRT. Median PFS were 18 months and 12 months, respectively. Overall treatment time (OTT) less than 8 weeks reduced risk of death by 81% (HR=0.19). Acute side effects were documented in 69.7% and 89.5% of patients who underwent EFRT and CCEFRT, respectively. Four patients (12.5%) developed radiotherapy late toxicity and there was no treatment-related death observed.
CONCLUSIONS: CCEFRT is associated with higher 5-years OS and median OS compared to EFRT and with tolerable level of acute and late toxicities in selected patients with cervical cancer and PALN metastasis.