METHODS: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention.
RESULTS: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10- 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10- 6 for ModelGail.
CONCLUSIONS: Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.
METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of use and dosing of lithium salts for BD patients across 13 Asian sites and evaluated bivariate relationships of lithium treatment with clinical correlates followed by multivariate logistic regression modeling.
RESULTS: In a total of 2139 BD participants (52.3% women) of mean age 42.4 years, lithium salts were prescribed in 27.3% of cases overall, varying among regions from 3.20% to 59.5%. Associated with lithium treatment were male sex, presence of euthymia or mild depression, and a history of seasonal mood change. Other mood stabilizers usually were given with lithium, often at relatively high doses. Lithium use was associated with newly emerging and dose-dependent risk of tremors as well as risk of hypothyroidism. We found no significant differences in rates of clinical remission or of suicidal behavior if treatment included lithium or not.
CONCLUSIONS: Study findings clarify current prevalence, dosing, and clinical correlates of lithium treatment for BD in Asia. This information should support clinical decision-making regarding treatment of BD patients and international comparisons of therapeutic practices.
METHODS: We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models.
RESULTS: We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31-32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12-16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8-12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7-11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55-59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32-37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73-75 %) among current smokers.
CONCLUSIONS: While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed.
DESIGN AND METHODS: This 10-year retrospective cohort study uses clinical audit datasets from Malaysian National Diabetes Registry from 2011 to 2021. T2D patients who received treatment in public health clinics in the southern region of Malaysia with at least two data points in 10 years are included. Patients with diabetes complications at baseline are excluded to ensure temporality between predictors and the target variable. Appropriate methods are used to address issues related to data cleaning, missing data imputation, data splitting, feature selection, and class imbalance. The study uses 7 ML algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine, to develop predictive models for four target variables: nephropathy, retinopathy, ischaemic heart disease, and stroke. Hyperparameter tuning is performed for each algorithm. The model training is performed using a stratified k-fold cross-validation technique. The best model for each algorithm is evaluated on a hold-out dataset using multiple metrics.
EXPECTED IMPACT OF THE STUDY ON PUBLIC HEALTH: The prediction model may be a valuable tool for diabetes management and secondary prevention by enabling earlier interventions and optimal resource allocation, leading to better health outcomes.
METHODS: This study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer cohort, comprising male and female participants from 10 European countries. Between 1992 and 2000, there were 477,312 participants without cancer who completed a dietary questionnaire and were followed up to determine pancreatic cancer incidence. Coffee and tea intake was calibrated with a 24-hour dietary recall. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were computed using multivariable Cox regression.
RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 11.6 y, 865 first incidences of pancreatic cancers were reported. When divided into fourths, neither total intake of coffee (HR, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.27; high vs low intake), decaffeinated coffee (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.76-1.63; high vs low intake), nor tea were associated with risk of pancreatic cancer (HR, 1.22, 95% CI, 0.95-1.56; high vs low intake). Moderately low intake of caffeinated coffee was associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.02-1.74), compared with low intake. However, no graded dose response was observed, and the association attenuated after restriction to histologically confirmed pancreatic cancers.
CONCLUSIONS: Based on an analysis of data from the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer cohort, total coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and tea consumption are not related to the risk of pancreatic cancer.
DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study.
STUDY SAMPLE: 1068 subjects issued with HAs at a tertiary hospital from 2001 to 2013.
RESULTS: Half of the subjects presented with more severe (>55 dB) hearing loss (HL) in their better ear. In multivariable analysis, older age, Malay ethnicity, conductive and mixed HL, and combination type of HL were associated with more severe HL at first presentation. Over 70% of subjects were older than 65 years. Worse pure tone audiometry (PTA) thresholds of the better ear, gradual onset and sensorineural HL were associated with older age presentation. For unilaterally fitted subjects, PTA thresholds were the only determinant of having the better ear aided. Better PTA thresholds, younger age and sensorineural HL were associated with choosing in ear compared to behind the ear HAs. Younger age and worse PTA of the better ear were associated with ≥4 h of daily HA usage.
CONCLUSIONS: Age, ethnicity and type of HL were important determinants for more severe HL at first HA fitting. Older patients and those with better hearing were less likely to use their HAs regularly.