DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.
SETTING: This study was conducted across 743 ICUs of 282 hospitals in 144 cities in 42 Asian, African, European, Latin American, and Middle Eastern countries.
PARTICIPANTS: The study included patients admitted to ICUs across 24 years.
RESULTS: In total, 289,643 patients were followed during 1,951,405 patient days and acquired 8,236 VAPs. We analyzed 10 independent variables. Multiple logistic regression identified the following independent VAP RFs: male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.28; P < .0001); longer length of stay (LOS), which increased the risk 7% per day (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.07-1.08; P < .0001); mechanical ventilation (MV) utilization ratio (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.23-1.31; P < .0001); continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), which was associated with the highest risk (aOR, 13.38; 95% CI, 11.57-15.48; P < .0001); tracheostomy connected to a MV, which was associated with the next-highest risk (aOR, 8.31; 95% CI, 7.21-9.58; P < .0001); endotracheal tube connected to a MV (aOR, 6.76; 95% CI, 6.34-7.21; P < .0001); surgical hospitalization (aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.17-1.29; P < .0001); admission to a public hospital (aOR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.35-1.86; P < .0001); middle-income country (aOR, 1.22; 95% CI, 15-1.29; P < .0001); admission to an adult-oncology ICU, which was associated with the highest risk (aOR, 4.05; 95% CI, 3.22-5.09; P < .0001), admission to a neurologic ICU, which was associated with the next-highest risk (aOR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.78-3.45; P < .0001); and admission to a respiratory ICU (aOR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.79-3.07; P < .0001). Admission to a coronary ICU showed the lowest risk (aOR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.51-0.77; P < .0001).
CONCLUSIONS: Some identified VAP RFs are unlikely to change: sex, hospitalization type, ICU type, facility ownership, and country income level. Based on our results, we recommend focusing on strategies to reduce LOS, to reduce the MV utilization ratio, to limit CPAP use and implementing a set of evidence-based VAP prevention recommendations.
METHODS: We implemented a multidimensional approach, incorporating an 11-element bundle, education, surveillance of CLABSI rates and clinical outcomes, monitoring compliance with bundle components, feedback of CLABSI rates and clinical outcomes, and performance feedback in 316 ICUs across 30 low- and middle-income countries. Our dependent variables were CLABSI per 1,000-CL-days and in-ICU all-cause mortality rates. These variables were measured at baseline and during the intervention, specifically during the second month, third month, 4 to 16 months, and 17 to 29 months. Comparisons were conducted using a two-sample t test. To explore the exposure-outcome relationship, we used a generalized linear mixed model with a Poisson distribution to model the number of CLABSIs.
RESULTS: During 1,837,750 patient-days, 283,087 patients, used 1,218,882 CL-days. CLABSI per 1,000 CL-days rates decreased from 15.34 at the baseline period to 7.97 in the 2nd month (relative risk (RR) = 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48-0.56; P
OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.
EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.
FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.
FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.
INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.
METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of reported MERS-CoV cases between December 2016 and January 2019, as retrieved from the World Health Organization. The aim of this study is to examine the epidemiology of reported cases and quantify the percentage of health care workers (HCWs) among reported cases.
RESULTS: There were 403 reported cases with a majority being men (n = 300; 74.4%). These cases were reported from Lebanon, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. HCWs represented 26% and comorbidities were reported among 71% of non-HCWs and 1.9% among HCWs (P < .0001). Camel exposure and camel milk ingestion were reported in 64% each, and the majority (97.8%) of those with camel exposures had camel milk ingestion. There were 58% primary cases and 42% were secondary cases. The case fatality rate was 16% among HCWs compared with 34% among other patients (P = .001). The mean age ± SD was 47.65 ± 16.28 for HCWs versus 54.23 ± 17.34 for non-HCWs (P = .001).
CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV infection continues to have a high case fatality rate and a large proportion of patients were HCWs. Further understanding of the disease transmission and prevention mainly in health care settings are needed.
METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.
INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: Multinational, multicenter, prospective cohort study at 786 ICUs of 312 hospitals in 147 cities in 37 Latin American, Asian, African, Middle Eastern, and European countries.
RESULTS: Between 07/01/1998 and 02/12/2022, 300,827 patients, followed during 2,167,397 patient-days, acquired 21,371 HAIs. Following mortality risk factors were identified in multiple logistic regression: Central line-associated bloodstream infection (aOR:1.84; P
METHODS: Prospective intensive care unit patient data collected via International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium Surveillance Online System. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Health Care Safety Network definitions applied for device-associated health care-associated infections (DA-HAI).
RESULTS: We gathered data from 204,770 patients, 1,480,620 patient days, 936,976 central line (CL)-days, 637,850 mechanical ventilators (MV)-days, and 1,005,589 urinary catheter (UC)-days. Our results showed 4,270 CL-associated bloodstream infections, 7,635 ventilator-associated pneumonia, and 3,005 UC-associated urinary tract infections. The combined rates of DA-HAIs were 7.28%, and 10.07 DA-HAIs per 1,000 patient days. CL-associated bloodstream infections occurred at 4.55 per 1,000 CL-days, ventilator-associated pneumonias at 11.96 per 1,000 MV-days, and UC-associated urinary tract infections at 2.91 per 1,000 UC days. In terms of resistance, Pseudomonas aeruginosa showed 50.73% resistance to imipenem, 44.99% to ceftazidime, 37.95% to ciprofloxacin, and 34.05% to amikacin. Meanwhile, Klebsiella spp had resistance rates of 48.29% to imipenem, 72.03% to ceftazidime, 61.78% to ciprofloxacin, and 40.32% to amikacin. Coagulase-negative Staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus displayed oxacillin resistance in 81.33% and 53.83% of cases, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The high rates of DA-HAI and bacterial resistance emphasize the ongoing need for continued efforts to control them.
DESIGN: A prospective cohort study.
SETTING: The study was conducted across 623 ICUs of 224 hospitals in 114 cities in 37 African, Asian, Eastern European, Latin American, and Middle Eastern countries.
PARTICIPANTS: The study included 169,036 patients, hospitalized for 1,166,593 patient days.
METHODS: Data collection took place from January 1, 2014, to February 12, 2022. We identified CAUTI rates per 1,000 UC days and UC device utilization (DU) ratios stratified by country, by ICU type, by facility ownership type, by World Bank country classification by income level, and by UC type. To estimate CAUTI risk factors, we analyzed 11 variables using multiple logistic regression.
RESULTS: Participant patients acquired 2,010 CAUTIs. The pooled CAUTI rate was 2.83 per 1,000 UC days. The highest CAUTI rate was associated with the use of suprapubic catheters (3.93 CAUTIs per 1,000 UC days); with patients hospitalized in Eastern Europe (14.03) and in Asia (6.28); with patients hospitalized in trauma (7.97), neurologic (6.28), and neurosurgical ICUs (4.95); with patients hospitalized in lower-middle-income countries (3.05); and with patients in public hospitals (5.89).The following variables were independently associated with CAUTI: Age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.01; P < .0001), female sex (aOR, 1.39; P < .0001), length of stay (LOS) before CAUTI-acquisition (aOR, 1.05; P < .0001), UC DU ratio (aOR, 1.09; P < .0001), public facilities (aOR, 2.24; P < .0001), and neurologic ICUs (aOR, 11.49; P < .0001).
CONCLUSIONS: CAUTI rates are higher in patients with suprapubic catheters, in middle-income countries, in public hospitals, in trauma and neurologic ICUs, and in Eastern European and Asian facilities.Based on findings regarding risk factors for CAUTI, focus on reducing LOS and UC utilization is warranted, as well as implementing evidence-based CAUTI-prevention recommendations.
METHODS: We implemented a multidimensional approach and an 8-component bundle in 374 ICUs across 35 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) from Latin-America, Asia, Eastern-Europe, and the Middle-East, to reduce VAP rates in ICUs. The VAP rate per 1000 mechanical ventilator (MV)-days was measured at baseline and during intervention at the 2nd month, 3rd month, 4-15 month, 16-27 month, and 28-39 month periods.
RESULTS: 174,987 patients, during 1,201,592 patient-days, used 463,592 MV-days. VAP per 1000 MV-days rates decreased from 28.46 at baseline to 17.58 at the 2nd month (RR = 0.61; 95% CI = 0.58-0.65; P
METHODS: We implemented a strategy involving a 9-element bundle, education, surveillance of CAUTI rates and clinical outcomes, monitoring compliance with bundle components, feedback of CAUTI rates and performance feedback. This was executed in 299 ICUs across 32 low- and middle-income countries. The dependent variable was CAUTI per 1,000 UC days, assessed at baseline and throughout the intervention, in the second month, third month, 4 to 15 months, 16 to 27 months, and 28 to 39 months. Comparisons were made using a 2-sample t test, and the exposure-outcome relationship was explored using a generalized linear mixed model with a Poisson distribution.
RESULTS: Over the course of 978,364 patient days, 150,258 patients utilized 652,053 UC-days. The rates of CAUTI per 1,000 UC days were measured. The rates decreased from 14.89 during the baseline period to 5.51 in the second month (risk ratio [RR] = 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.34-0.39; P