METHODS: Data was sourced from the GitHub repository and the Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 website. The study period was from the beginning of the outbreak in Malaysia, which began during Epidemiological Week (Ep Wk) 4 in 2020, to the last Ep Wk 18 in 2022. Data were aggregated by Ep Wk and analyzed in terms of COVID-19 cases, deaths, ICU admissions, ventilator requirements, testing, incidence rate, death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and test positivity rate by years (2020 and 2022) and for each outbreak of COVID-19.
RESULTS: A total of 4,456,736 cases, 35,579 deaths and 58,906,954 COVID-19 tests were reported for the period from 2020 to 2022. The COVID-19 incidence rate, death rate, CFR and test positivity rate were reported at 1.085 and 0.009 per 1,000 populations, 0.80 and 7.57%, respectively, for the period from 2020 to 2022. Higher cases, deaths, testing, incidence/death rate, CFR and test positivity rates were reported in 2021 and during the Delta outbreak. This is evident by the highest number of COVID-19 cases, ICU admissions, ventilatory requirements and deaths observed during the Delta outbreak.
CONCLUSION: The Delta outbreak was the most severe compared to other outbreaks in Malaysia's study period. In addition, this study provides evidence that outbreaks of COVID-19, which are caused by highly virulent and transmissible variants, tend to be more severe and devastating if these outbreaks are not controlled early on. Therefore, close monitoring of key epidemiological indicators, as reported in this study, is essential in the control and management of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Malaysia.
METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
METHODS: A molecular epidemiological investigation of CVA21 was conducted among patients presenting with acute upper respiratory illnesses in the ambulatory settings between 2012 and 2014 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
RESULTS: Epidemiological surveillance of acute respiratory infections (n = 3935) showed low-level detection of CVA21 (0.08%, 1.4 cases/year) in Kuala Lumpur, with no clear seasonal distribution. Phylogenetic analysis of the new complete genomes showed close relationship with CVA21 strains from China and the United States. Spatio-temporal mapping of the VP1 gene determined 2 major clusters circulating worldwide, with inter-country lineage migration and strain replacement occurring over time.
CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the emerging role of CVA21 in causing sporadic acute respiratory outbreaks.
METHODS: A retrospective case-note analysis was conducted on a cohort of 3935 patients attending primary care at the University Malaya Medical Centre, Malaysia from February 2012 till May 2014 with URTI symptoms. Demographics, clinical characteristics, medical and vaccination history were obtained from electronic medical records, and mortality data from the National Registration Department. Comparisons were made between those aged <25, ≥25 to <65 and ≥65 years.
RESULTS: 470 (11.9%) had PCR-confirmed influenza virus infection. Six (1.3%) received prior influenza vaccination. Those aged ≥65 years were more likely to have ≥2 comorbidities (P
METHODS: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local (n = 6), regional (n = 9) and national (n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used.
RESULTS: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV.
CONCLUSIONS: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.
Methods: An observational study was conducted among 3935 patients presenting with acute upper respiratory illnesses in the ambulatory settings between 2012 and 2014.
Results: The VP4/VP2 gene was genotyped from all 976 RV-positive specimens, where the predominance of RV-A (49%) was observed, followed by RV-C (38%) and RV-B (13%). A significant regression in median nasopharyngeal viral load (VL) (P < .001) was observed, from 883 viral copies/µL at 1-2 days after symptom onset to 312 viral copies/µL at 3-4 days and 158 viral copies/µL at 5-7 days, before declining to 35 viral copies/µL at ≥8 days. In comparison with RV-A (median VL, 217 copies/µL) and RV-B (median VL, 275 copies/µL), RV-C-infected subjects produced higher VL (505 copies/µL; P < .001). Importantly, higher RV VL (median, 348 copies/µL) was associated with more severe respiratory symptoms (Total Symptom Severity Score ≥17, P = .017). A total of 83 phylogenetic-based transmission clusters were identified in the population. It was observed that the relative humidity was the strongest environmental predictor of RV seasonality in the tropical climate.
Conclusions: Our findings underline the role of VL in increasing disease severity attributed to RV-C infection, and unravel the factors that fuel the population transmission dynamics of RV.