METHODS: In this study, we built a new model (Asian Risk Calculator) for estimating the likelihood of carrying a pathogenic variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene, using germline BRCA genetic testing results in a cross-sectional population-based study of 8,162 Asian patients with breast cancer. We compared the model performance to existing mutation prediction models. The models were evaluated for discrimination and calibration.
RESULTS: Asian Risk Calculator included age of diagnosis, ethnicity, bilateral breast cancer, tumor biomarkers, and family history of breast cancer or ovarian cancer as predictors. The inclusion of tumor grade improved significantly the model performance. The full model was calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value = .614) and discriminated well between BRCA and non-BRCA pathogenic variant carriers (area under receiver operating curve, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.84). Addition of grade to the existing clinical genetic testing criteria targeting patients with breast cancer age younger than 45 years reduced the proportion of patients referred for genetic counseling and testing from 37% to 33% (P value = .003), thereby improving the overall efficacy.
CONCLUSION: Population-specific customization of mutation prediction models and clinical genetic testing criteria improved the accuracy of BRCA mutation prediction in Asian patients.
METHODS: We used a panel of 34 putative susceptibility genes to perform sequencing on samples from 60,466 women with breast cancer and 53,461 controls. In separate analyses for protein-truncating variants and rare missense variants in these genes, we estimated odds ratios for breast cancer overall and tumor subtypes. We evaluated missense-variant associations according to domain and classification of pathogenicity.
RESULTS: Protein-truncating variants in 5 genes (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2) were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall with a P value of less than 0.0001. Protein-truncating variants in 4 other genes (BARD1, RAD51C, RAD51D, and TP53) were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall with a P value of less than 0.05 and a Bayesian false-discovery probability of less than 0.05. For protein-truncating variants in 19 of the remaining 25 genes, the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the odds ratio for breast cancer overall was less than 2.0. For protein-truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2, odds ratios were higher for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease than for ER-negative disease; for protein-truncating variants in BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, RAD51C, and RAD51D, odds ratios were higher for ER-negative disease than for ER-positive disease. Rare missense variants (in aggregate) in ATM, CHEK2, and TP53 were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall with a P value of less than 0.001. For BRCA1, BRCA2, and TP53, missense variants (in aggregate) that would be classified as pathogenic according to standard criteria were associated with a risk of breast cancer overall, with the risk being similar to that of protein-truncating variants.
CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study define the genes that are most clinically useful for inclusion on panels for the prediction of breast cancer risk, as well as provide estimates of the risks associated with protein-truncating variants, to guide genetic counseling. (Funded by European Union Horizon 2020 programs and others.).
METHODS: Data were collected on 271 BRCA1 and 301 BRCA2 families from Malaysia and Singapore, ascertained through population/hospital-based case-series (88%) and genetic clinics (12%). Age-specific cancer risks were estimated using a modified segregation analysis method, adjusted for ascertainment.
FINDINGS: BC and OC relative risks (RRs) varied across age groups for both BRCA1 and BRCA2. The age-specific RR estimates were similar across ethnicities and country of residence. For BRCA1 carriers of Malay, Indian and Chinese ancestry born between 1950 and 1959 in Malaysia, the cumulative risk (95% CI) of BC by age 80 was 40% (36%-44%), 49% (44%-53%) and 55% (51%-60%), respectively. The corresponding estimates for BRCA2 were 29% (26-32%), 36% (33%-40%) and 42% (38%-45%). The corresponding cumulative BC risks for Singapore residents from the same birth cohort, where the underlying population cancer incidences are higher compared to Malaysia, were higher, varying by ancestry group between 57 and 61% for BRCA1, and between 43 and 47% for BRCA2 carriers. The cumulative risk of OC by age 80 was 31% (27-36%) for BRCA1 and 12% (10%-15%) for BRCA2 carriers in Malaysia born between 1950 and 1959; and 42% (34-50%) for BRCA1 and 20% (14-27%) for BRCA2 carriers of the same birth cohort in Singapore. There was evidence of increased BC and OC risks for women from >1960 birth cohorts (p-value = 3.6 × 10-5 for BRCA1 and 0.018 for BRCA2).
INTERPRETATION: The absolute age-specific cancer risks of Asian carriers vary depending on the underlying population-specific cancer incidences, and hence should be customised to allow for more accurate cancer risk management.
FUNDING: Wellcome Trust [grant no: v203477/Z/16/Z]; CRUK (PPRPGM-Nov20∖100002).
METHODS: We developed a decision analytic model to estimate the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) accrued through BRCA mutation testing or routine clinical surveillance (RCS) for a hypothetical cohort of 1000 early-stage breast cancer patients aged 40 years. In the model, patients would decide whether to accept testing and to undertake risk-reducing mastectomy, oophorectomy, tamoxifen, combinations or neither. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) from the health system perspective. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed.
RESULTS: In the base case, testing generated 11.2 QALYs over the lifetime and cost US$4815 per patient whereas RCS generated 11.1 QALYs and cost US$4574 per patient. The ICER of US$2725/QALY was below the cost-effective thresholds. The ICER was sensitive to the discounting of cost, cost of BRCA mutation testing and utility of being risk-free, but the ICERs remained below the thresholds. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that at a threshold of US$9500/QALY, 99.9% of simulations favoured BRCA mutation testing over RCS.
CONCLUSIONS: Offering BRCA mutation testing to early-stage breast cancer patients identified using a locally-validated risk-assessment tool may be cost effective compared to RCS in Malaysia.