METHODS AND FINDINGS: As a key step to estimate the economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia (SEA), we projected dengue cases from 2001 through 2010 using EFs. We conducted a systematic literature review (1995-2011) and identified 11 published articles reporting original, empirically derived EFs or the necessary data, and 11 additional relevant studies. To estimate EFs for total cases in countries where no empirical studies were available, we extrapolated data based on the statistically significant inverse relationship between an index of a country's health system quality and its observed reporting rate. We compiled an average 386,000 dengue episodes reported annually to surveillance systems in the region, and projected about 2.92 million dengue episodes. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simultaneously varying the most important parameters in 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and derived 95% certainty level of 2.73-3.38 million dengue episodes. We estimated an overall EF in SEA of 7.6 (95% certainty level: 7.0-8.8) dengue cases for every case reported, with an EF range of 3.8 for Malaysia to 19.0 in East Timor.
CONCLUSION: Studies that make no adjustment for underreporting would seriously understate the burden and cost of dengue in SEA and elsewhere. As the sites of the empirical studies we identified were not randomly chosen, the exact extent of underreporting remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the results reported here, based on a systematic analysis of the available literature, show general consistency and provide a reasonable empirical basis to adjust for underreporting.
METHODS & RESULTS: We extend and apply an environmental niche modelling framework as implemented by a previous mapping study of P. knowlesi transmission risk which included data up to 2015. We reviewed the literature from October 2015 through to March 2020 and identified 264 new records of P. knowlesi, with a total of 524 occurrences included in the current study following consolidation with the 2015 study. The modelling framework used in the 2015 study was extended, with changes including the addition of new covariates to capture the effect of deforestation and urbanisation on P. knowlesi transmission.
DISCUSSION: Our map of P. knowlesi relative transmission suitability estimates that the risk posed by the pathogen is highest in Malaysia and Indonesia, with localised areas of high risk also predicted in the Greater Mekong Subregion, The Philippines and Northeast India. These results highlight areas of priority for P. knowlesi surveillance and prospective sampling to address the challenge the disease poses to malaria elimination planning.
METHODS: A nationwide cross-sectional, self-administered online survey was conducted on 1-19 May 2020. The health belief model (HBM) was used as a theoretical framework for understanding COVID-19 vaccination intent and WTP.
RESULTS: A total of 3,541 complete responses were received. The majority reported a probably yes intent (54.6%), followed by a definite yes intent (28.7%). The perception that vaccination decreases the chances of getting COVID-19 under the perceived benefit construct (OR = 3.14, 95% CI 2.05-4.83) and not being concerned about the efficacy of new COVID-19 vaccines under the perceived barriers construct (OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.31-2.09) were found to have the highest significant odds of a definite intention to take the COVID-19 vaccine. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) of WTP for COVID-19 vaccine was CNY¥200/US$28 (IQR CNY¥100-500/USD$14-72). The highest marginal WTP for the vaccine was influenced by socio-economic factors. The majority were confident (48.7%) and completely confident (46.1%) in domestically-made COVID-19 vaccine. 64.2% reported a preference for a domestically-made over foreign-made COVID-19 vaccine.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate the utility of HBM constructs in understanding COVID-19 vaccination intent and WTP. It is important to improve health promotion and reduce the barriers to COVID-19 vaccination.
METHODS: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection.
RESULTS: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R(0H) = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used 13 nuclear microsatellite loci (on 911 individuals) and mitochondrial COI sequences to gain a better understanding of the historical and contemporary movements of Ae. albopictus in the Indo-Pacific region and to characterize its population structure. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was employed to test competing historical routes of invasion of Ae. albopictus within the Southeast (SE) Asian/Australasian region. Our ABC results show that Ae. albopictus was most likely introduced to New Guinea via mainland Southeast Asia, before colonizing the Solomon Islands via either Papua New Guinea or SE Asia. The analysis also supported that the recent incursion into northern Australia's Torres Strait Islands was seeded chiefly from Indonesia. For the first time documented in this invasive species, we provide evidence of a recently colonized population (the Torres Strait Islands) that has undergone rapid temporal changes in its genetic makeup, which could be the result of genetic drift or represent a secondary invasion from an unknown source.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There appears to be high spatial genetic structure and high gene flow between some geographically distant populations. The species' genetic structure in the region tends to favour a dispersal pattern driven mostly by human movements. Importantly, this study provides a more widespread sampling distribution of the species' native range, revealing more spatial population structure than previously shown. Additionally, we present the most probable invasion history of this species in the Australasian region using ABC analysis.
METHODS: Records of dengue cases from 2013 to 2016 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full envelope gene sequences of dengue viruses detected from the high-risk areas of China were collected. Maximum Likelihood tree and haplotype network analyses were conducted to explore the phylogenetic relationship of viruses from high-risk areas of China.
RESULTS: A total of 56,520 cases was reported in China from 2013 to 2016. During this time, Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian provinces were the high-risk areas. Imported cases occurred almost year-round, and were mainly introduced from Southeast Asia. The first indigenous case usually occurred in June to August, and the last one occurred before December in Yunnan and Fujian provinces but in December in Guangdong Province. Seven genotypes of DENV 1-3 were detected in the high-risk areas, with DENV 1-I the main genotype and DENV 2-Cosmopolitan the secondary one. The Maximum Likelihood trees show that almost all the indigenous viruses separated into different clusters. DENV 1-I viruses were found to be clustered in Guangdong Province, but not in Fujian and Yunnan, from 2013 to 2015. The ancestors of the Guangdong viruses in the cluster in 2013 and 2014 were most closely related to strains from Thailand or Singapore, and the Guangdong virus in 2015 was most closely related to the Guangdong virus of 2014. Based on closest phylogenetic relationships, viruses from Myanmar possibly initiated further indigenous cases in Yunnan, those from Indonesia in Fujian, while viruses from Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia were predominant in Guangdong Province.
CONCLUSIONS: Dengue is still an imported disease in China, although some genotypes continued to circulate in successive years. Viral phylogenies based on the envelope gene suggested periodic introductions of dengue strains into China, primarily from Southeast Asia, with occasional sustained, multi-year transmission in some regions of China.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.
METHODS: We performed a systematic search of relevant studies on Ovid (MEDLINE), EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus and grey literature databases. At least two authors independently conducted the literature search, selecting eligible studies, and extracting data. Meta-analysis using random-effects model was conducted to compute the pooled odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
FINDINGS: We obtained a total of 13,333 articles from the searches. For the final analysis, we included a total of fifteen studies among pediatric patients. Three cohort studies, two case-control studies, and one cross-sectional study found an association between obesity and dengue severity. In contrast, six cohort studies and three case-control studies found no significant relationship between obesity and dengue severity. Our meta-analysis revealed that there was 38 percent higher odds (Odds Ratio = 1.38; 95% CI:1.10, 1.73) of developing severe dengue infection among obese children compared to non-obese children. We found no heterogeneity found between studies. The differences in obesity classification, study quality, and study design do not modify the association between obesity and dengue severity.
CONCLUSION: This review found that obesity is a risk factor for dengue severity among children. The result highlights and improves our understanding that obesity might influence the severity of dengue infection.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We assessed oral susceptibility of Malaysian Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus by real-time PCR to an Australian RRV strain SW2089. Replication kinetics in midgut, head and saliva were determined at 3 and 10 days post-infection (dpi). With a 3 log10 PFU/ml blood meal, infection rate was higher in Ae. albopictus (60%) than Ae. aegypti (15%; p<0.05). Despite similar infection rates at 5 and 7 log10 PFU/ml blood meals, Ae. albopictus had significantly higher viral loads and required a significantly lower median oral infectious dose (2.7 log10 PFU/ml) than Ae. aegypti (4.2 log10 PFU/ml). Ae. albopictus showed higher vector competence, with higher viral loads in heads and saliva, and higher transmission rate (RRV present in saliva) of 100% at 10 dpi, than Ae. aegypti (41%). Ae. aegypti demonstrated greater barriers at either midgut escape or salivary gland infection, and salivary gland escape. We then assessed seropositivity against RRV among 240 Kuala Lumpur inpatients using plaque reduction neutralization, and found a low rate of 0.8%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are susceptible to RRV, but Ae. albopictus displays greater vector competence. Extensive travel links with Australia, abundant Aedes vectors, and low population immunity places Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at risk of an imported RRV outbreak. Surveillance and increased diagnostic awareness and capacity are imperative to prevent establishment of new arboviruses in Malaysia.
METHODS: We used transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to investigate post-mortem tissue sections of patients with clinical melioidosis to identify the localisation of a recently identified gut microbiome, B. pseudomallei within host cells. The intranuclear presence of B. pseudomallei was confirmed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of experimentally infected guinea pig spleen tissues and Live Z-stack, and ImageJ analysis of fluorescence microscopy analysis of in vitro infection of A549 human lung epithelial cells.
RESULTS: TEM investigations revealed intranuclear localization of B. pseudomallei in cells of infected human lung and guinea pig spleen tissues. We also found that B. pseudomallei induced actin polymerization following infection of A549 human lung epithelial cells. Infected A549 lung epithelial cells using 3D-Laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) and immunofluorescence microscopy confirmed the intranuclear localization of B. pseudomallei.
CONCLUSION: B. pseudomallei was found within the nuclear compartment of host cells. The nucleus may play a role as an occult or transient niche for persistence of intracellular pathogens, potentially leading to recurrrent episodes or recrudescence of infection.