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  1. The emerging epidemic of HIV infection and AIDS in Asia and the Pacific
    Kaldor JM, Sittitrai W, John TJ, Kitamura T
    AIDS, 1994;8 Suppl 2:S1-2.
    PMID: 7857551
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  2. HIV infection among injecting drug users in north-east Malaysia, 1992
    Singh S, Crofts N
    AIDS Care, 1993;5(3):273-81.
    PMID: 8218462 DOI: 10.1080/09540129308258610
    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has spread widely among injecting drug users (IDUs) in countries to the north and west of the 'Golden Triangle' region of South-East Asia; it is likely to have spread southwards to Malaysia as well. In order to assess HIV seroprevalence among IDUs in north-east Malaysia and describe risk factors for HIV infection in this population, we performed a cross-sectional seroepidemiological study among 210 IDUs recruited at the detoxification ward of the General Hospital in the capital city of the north-eastern Malaysian state, Kelantan. Subjects were sequential entrants to the detoxification ward, interviewed about HIV risk behaviour, and tested for antibody to HIV and to syphilis. Nearly a third (62/210, 30%) of these IDUs were HIV seropositive. Three-quarters (159/210) had travelled to Thailand in the preceding 5 years, of whom 32% (51/159) were HIV seropositive; this was associated with injecting in Thailand, but not with sexual contact there. Of those who had not left Malaysia in the preceding 5 years, 26% (11/43) were HIV seropositive, a rate not significantly different from those who had travelled. Travel within Malaysia was common (144/210, 69%) among IDUs interviewed, as was unsafe injecting and unsafe sexual behaviour (20% had shared injecting equipment and 21% had had unprotected intercourse) in other states. In every locale, rates of unsafe injecting behaviour were high (55% sharing in last month), even among those who knew they were HIV infected, and rates of condom usage were low (93% of 160 sexually active IDUs had never used a condom). Syphilis was not associated with HIV infection, but with contact with Thai prostitutes.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data*
  3. Asia. Vancouver Conference Review
    Brown T
    AIDS Care, 1997 Feb;9(1):43-9.
    PMID: 9155914
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  4. Inter-country consultation
    Reid E
    AIDS Health Promot Exch, 1993.
    PMID: 12287485
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  5. Indonesia and Vietnam may face AIDS pandemic
    AIDS Wkly Plus, 1996 Oct 28.
    PMID: 12320487
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  6. Nipah viral encephalitis or Japanese encephalitis? MR findings in a new zoonotic disease
    Lim CC, Sitoh YY, Hui F, Lee KE, Ang BS, Lim E, et al.
    AJNR Am J Neuroradiol, 2000 Mar;21(3):455-61.
    PMID: 10730635
    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: An epidemic of suspected Japanese encephalitis occurred in Malaysia in 1998-1999 among pig farmers. In neighboring Singapore, an outbreak occurred among pig slaughterhouse workers. It was subsequently established that the causative agent in the outbreak was not the Japanese encephalitis virus but a previously unknown Hendra-like paramyxovirus named Nipah virus.

    METHODS: The brain MR images of eight patients with Nipah virus infection were reviewed. All patients tested negative for acute Japanese encephalitis virus. Seven patients had contrast-enhanced studies and six had diffusion-weighted examinations.

    RESULTS: All patients had multiple small bilateral foci of T2 prolongation within the subcortical and deep white matter. The periventricular region and corpus callosum were also involved. In addition to white matter disease, five patients had cortical lesions, three had brain stem involvement, and a single thalamic lesion was detected in one patient. All lesions were less than 1 cm in maximum diameter. In five patients, diffusion-weighted images showed increased signal. Four patients had leptomeningeal enhancement and four had enhancement of parenchymal lesions.

    CONCLUSION: The brain MR findings in patients infected with the newly discovered Nipah paramyxovirus are different from those of patients with Japanese encephalitis. In a zoonotic epidemic, this striking difference in the appearance and distribution of lesions is useful in differentiating these diseases. Diffusion-weighted imaging was advantageous in increasing lesion conspicuity.

    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  7. Fulltext Pathological laughter associated with cerebral lupus: a case report
    Singh J, Ahmad N, Chai YC
    ASEAN Journal of Psychiatry, 2017;18(1):107-113.
    MyJurnal
    Objective: Pathological laughter, pseudobulbar affect or a myriad of its other synonyms, is a condition common secondary to neurological injury, presenting with uncontrolled laughing or crying, appearing to be mood-incongruent and significantly debilitating. The objective of this case report is to highlight a rare case of pathological laughter associated with Cerebral Lupus.
    Methods: We report a case of a 27-year-old lady presenting with signs and symptoms of stroke with dysarthria progressing to aphasia and then pathological laughter, with an underlying poorly controlled Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, manifesting as Cerebral Lupus.
    Results: An improvement in affect congruency followed by decreased frequency of outbreaks among bouts of pathological laughter.
    Conclusion: The combination of Escitalopram and Topiramate is effective in the symptomatic treatment of Pathological Laughter.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  8. Fulltext Nipah virus encephalitis — a review
    Tan, C.T., Chua, K.B., Wong, K.T.
    ASM Science Journal, 2009;3(1):91-96.
    MyJurnal
    The Nipah virus was first discovered in 1999, following a severe outbreak of viral encephalitis among pig farm workers in Malaysia. The virus was thought to have spread from Pteropus bats to pigs, then from infected pigs to humans by close contact. Mortality of the disease was high at about 40%. The main necropsy finding was disseminated microinfarction associated with vasculitis and direct neuronal involvement. Relapsed encephalitis was seen in approximately 10% of those who survived the initial illness. Since its first recorded emergence in peninsular Malaysia, 10 outbreaks of Nipah virus encephalitis have been reported in Bangladesh and West Bengal in India. The outbreaks occurred from January to May, with Pteropus giganteus as the reservoir of the virus. In Bangladesh, evidence indicated that the virus transmitted directly from bats to human, with human to human transmission as an important mode of spread. The mortality of the illness was higher in Bangladesh which stood at around 70%. This was likely to be due to genetic variation of the virus.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  9. Fulltext Emerging epidemic viral encephalitides with a special focus on henipaviruses
    Wong KT
    Acta Neuropathol, 2010 Sep;120(3):317-25.
    PMID: 20652579 DOI: 10.1007/s00401-010-0720-z
    In the last few decades, there is an increasing emergence and re-emergence of viruses, such as West Nile virus, Enterovirus 71 and henipaviruses that cause epidemic viral encephalitis and other central nervous system (CNS) manifestations. The mortality and morbidity associated with these outbreaks are significant and frequently severe. While aspects of epidemiology, basic virology, etc., may be known, the pathology and pathogenesis are often less so, partly due to a lack of interest among pathologists or because many of these infections are considered "third world" diseases. In the study of epidemic viral encephalitis, the pathologist's role in unravelling the pathology and pathogenesis is critical. The novel henipavirus infection is a good example. The newly created genus Henipavirus within the family Paramyxoviridae consists of two viruses, viz., Hendra virus and Nipah virus. These two viruses emerged in Australia and Asia, respectively, to cause severe encephalitides in humans and animals. Studies show that the pathological features of the acute encephalitis caused by henipaviruses are similar and a unique dual pathogenetic mechanism of vasculitis-induced microinfarction and parenchymal cell infection in the CNS (mainly neurons) and other organs causes severe tissue damage. Both viruses can cause relapsing encephalitis months and years after the acute infection due to a true recurrent infection as evidenced by the presence of virus in infected cells. Future emerging viral encephalitides will no doubt continue to pose considerable challenges to the neuropathologist, and as the West Nile virus outbreak demonstrates, even economically advanced nations are not spared.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  10. Redefining epidemic hysteria: an example from Sweden
    Bartholomew RE
    Acta Psychiatr Scand, 1993 Sep;88(3):178-82.
    PMID: 8249649
    François Sirois' influential paradigm for diagnosing episodes of epidemic hysteria is discussed. The part of his schema addressing the large diffuse outbreak should be eliminated as it does not possess characteristic features of mass hysteria and overlooks the potential social, cultural, political, ritualistic and institutional patterning of collective behavior. A case study involving the collective delusion of phantom rockets over Sweden during 1946 illustrates the complexities of such episodes.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  11. Molecular characterization of Vibrio cholerae O1 outbreak strains in Miri, Sarawak (Malaysia)
    Radu S, Vincent M, Apun K, Abdul-Rahim R, Benjamin PG, Yuherman, et al.
    Acta Trop, 2002 Aug;83(2):169-76.
    PMID: 12088858
    Bacterial resistance to various antimicrobial agents is common in area with high usage of antibiotics. In this study, the data on antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of Vibrio cholerae O1 from patients during an outbreak period was found to be high but variable rates of multidrug resistance. Thirty-two of 33 V. cholerae isolates harboured the tcp, ctx, zot and ace genes, suggesting their possible roles in the outbreak cases. We analyzed the molecular diversity of a total of 33 strains of V. cholerae O1 isolated from 33 patients between November 1997 and April 1998 using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. The 30 typable isolates could be separated into four major clusters containing 5, 17, 2 and 6 isolates, respectively. However, no particular RAPD pattern was predictive of a particular pattern of antibiotic susceptibility. The findings of this study showed that multiple clones seemed to be responsible for cases in the outbreaks in the study area.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  12. Fulltext Japanese encephalitis in Malaysia: An overview and timeline
    Kumar K, Arshad SS, Selvarajah GT, Abu J, Toung OP, Abba Y, et al.
    Acta Trop, 2018 Sep;185:219-229.
    PMID: 29856986 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.05.017
    Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). It causes encephalitis in human and horses, and may lead to reproductive failure in sows. The first human encephalitis case in Malaya (now Malaysia) was reported during World War II in a British prison in 1942. Later, encephalitis was observed among race horses in Singapore. In 1951, the first JEV was isolated from the brain of an encephalitis patient. The true storyline of JE exposure among humans and animals has not been documented in Malaysia. In some places such as Sarawak, JEV has been isolated from mosquitoes before an outbreak in 1992. JE is an epidemic in Malaysia except Sarawak. There are four major outbreaks reported in Pulau Langkawi (1974), Penang (1988), Perak and Negeri Sembilan (1998-1999), and Sarawak (1992). JE is considered endemic only in Sarawak. Initially, both adults and children were victims of JE in Malaysia, however, according to the current reports; JE infection is only lethal to children in Malaysia. This paper describes a timeline of JE cases (background of each case) from first detection to current status, vaccination programs against JE, diagnostic methods used in hospitals and factors which may contribute to the transmission of JE among humans and animals in Malaysia.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  13. Aedes aegypti(Linnaeus) larvae from dengue outbreak areas in Selangor showing resistance to pyrethroids but susceptible to organophosphates
    Leong CS, Vythilingam I, Wong ML, Wan Sulaiman WY, Lau YL
    Acta Trop, 2018 Sep;185:115-126.
    PMID: 29758171 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.05.008
    The resistance status of Selangor Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) larvae against four major groups of insecticides (i.e., organochlorines, carbamates, organophosphates and pyrethroids) was investigated. Aedes aegypti were susceptible against temephos (organophosphate), although resistance (RR50 = 0.21-2.64) may be developing. The insecticides susceptibility status of Ae. aegypti larvae were found heterogeneous among the different study sites. Results showed that Ae. aegypti larvae from Klang, Sabak Bernam and Sepang were susceptible against all insecticides tested. However, other study sites exhibited low to high resistance against all pyrethroids (RR50 = 1.19-32.16). Overall, the application of synergists ethacrynic acid, S.S.S.- tributylphosphorotrithioate and piperonyl butoxide increased the toxicity of insecticides investigated. However, the application failed to increase the mortality to susceptible level (>97%) for certain populations, therefore there are chances of alteration of target site resistance involved. Biochemical assays revealed that α-esterase, (Gombak, Kuala Langat, Kuala Selangor and Sabak Bernam strains) β-esterase (Klang and Sabak Bernam strains), acetylcholinesterase (Kuala Selangor and Sabak Bernam strains), glutathione-S-transferase (Kuala Selangor and Sabak Bernam strains) and mono-oxygenases (Gombak, Hulu Langat, Hulu Selangor and Kuala Langat strains) were elevated. Spearman rank-order correlation indicated a significant correlation between resistance ratios of: DDT and deltamethrin (r = 0.683, P = 0.042), cyfluthrin and deltamethrin (r = 0.867, P =0.002), cyflyuthrin and lambdacyhalothrin (r = 0.800, P =0.010), cyfluthrin and permethrin (r = 0.770, P =0.015) deltamethrin and permethrin (r = 0.803, P =0.088), propoxur and malathion (r = 0.867, P = 0.002), malathion and temephos (r = 0.800, P = 0.010), etofenprox and MFO enzyme (r = 0.667, P =0.050). The current study provides baseline information for vector control programs conducted by local authorities. The susceptibility status of Ae. aegypti should be monitored sporadically to ensure the effectiveness of current vector control strategy in Selangor.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks*
  14. Plasmodium vivax drug resistance markers: Genetic polymorphisms and mutation patterns in isolates from Malaysia
    Cheong FW, Dzul S, Fong MY, Lau YL, Ponnampalavanar S
    Acta Trop, 2020 Jun;206:105454.
    PMID: 32205132 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105454
    Transmission of Plasmodium vivax still persist in Malaysia despite the government's aim to eliminate malaria in 2020. High treatment failure rate of chloroquine monotherapy was reported recently. Hence, parasite drug susceptibility should be kept under close monitoring. Mutation analysis of the drug resistance markers is useful for reconnaissance of anti-malarial drug resistance. Hitherto, information on P. vivax drug resistance marker in Malaysia are limited. This study aims to evaluate the mutations in four P. vivax drug resistance markers pvcrt-o (putative), pvmdr1 (putative), pvdhfr and pvdhps in 44 isolates from Malaysia. Finding indicates that 27.3%, 100%, 47.7%, and 27.3% of the isolates were carrying mutant allele in pvcrt-o, pvmdr1, pvdhfr and pvdhps genes, respectively. Most of the mutant isolates had multiple point mutations rather than single point mutation in pvmdr1 (41/44) and pvdhfr (19/21). One novel point mutation V111I was detected in pvdhfr. Allelic combination analysis shows significant strong association between mutations in pvcrt-o and pvmdr1 (X2 = 9.521, P < 0.05). In the present study, 65.9% of the patients are non-Malaysians, with few of them arrived in Malaysia 1-2 weeks before the onset of clinical manifestations, or had previous history of malaria infection. Besides, few Malaysian patients had travel history to vivax-endemic countries, suggesting that these patients might have acquired the infections during their travel. All these possible imported cases could have placed Malaysia in a risk to have local transmission or outbreak of malaria. Six isolates were found to have mutations in all four drug resistance markers, suggesting that the multiple-drugs resistant P. vivax strains are circulating in Malaysia.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  15. Leptospirosis: Molecular trial path and immunopathogenesis correlated with dengue, malaria and mimetic hemorrhagic infections
    Priya SP, Sakinah S, Sharmilah K, Hamat RA, Sekawi Z, Higuchi A, et al.
    Acta Trop, 2017 Dec;176:206-223.
    PMID: 28823908 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.08.007
    Immuno-pathogenesis of leptospirosis can be recounted well by following its trail path from entry to exit, while inducing disastrous damages in various tissues of the host. Dysregulated, inappropriate and excessive immune responses are unanimously blamed in fatal leptospirosis. The inherent abilities of the pathogen and inabilities of the host were debated targeting the severity of the disease. Hemorrhagic manifestation through various mechanisms leading to a fatal end is observed when this disease is unattended. The similar vascular destructions and hemorrhage manifestations are noted in infections with different microbes in endemic areas. The simultaneous infection in a host with more than one pathogen or parasite is referred as the coinfection. Notably, common endemic infections such as leptospirosis, dengue, chikungunya, and malaria, harbor favorable environments to flourish in similar climates, which is aggregated with stagnated water and aggravated with the poor personal and environmental hygiene of the inhabitants. These factors aid the spread of pathogens and parasites to humans and potential vectors, eventually leading to outbreaks of public health relevance. Malaria, dengue and chikungunya need mosquitoes as vectors, in contrast with leptospirosis, which directly invades human, although the environmental bacterial load is maintained through other mammals, such as rodents. The more complicating issue is that infections by different pathogens exhibiting similar symptoms but require different treatment management. The current review explores different pathogens expressing specific surface proteins and their ability to bind with array of host proteins with or without immune response to enter into the host tissues and their ability to evade the host immune responses to invade and their affinity to certain tissues leading to the common squeal of hemorrhage. Furthermore, at the host level, the increased susceptibility and inability of the host to arrest the pathogens' and parasites' spread in different tissues, various cytokines accumulated to eradicate the microorganisms and their cellular interactions, the antibody dependent defense and the susceptibility of individual organs bringing the manifestation of the diseases were explored. Lastly, we provided a discussion on the immune trail path of pathogenesis from entry to exit to narrate the similarities and dissimilarities among various hemorrhagic fevers mentioned above, in order to outline future possibilities of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of coinfections, with special reference to endemic areas.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  16. Fulltext Major epidemiological factors associated with leptospirosis in Malaysia
    Garba B, Bahaman AR, Bejo SK, Zakaria Z, Mutalib AR, Bande F
    Acta Trop, 2018 Feb;178:242-247.
    PMID: 29217379 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.12.010
    INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease caused by a diverse pathogenic leptospira species and serovars. The disease is transmitted directly following contact with infected urine and other body fluids or indirectly after contact with water or soil contaminated with infected urine.

    OBJECTIVES: While a wide range of domestic and wild animals are known to be reservoirs of the disease, occupation, international travel and recreation are beginning to assume a center stage in the transmission of the disease. The objective of this study is to review available literatures to determine the extent to which these aforementioned risk factors aid the transmission, increase incidence and outbreak of leptospirosis in Malaysia.

    STUDY DESIGN: The review was conducted based on prevalence, incidence, and outbreak cases of leptospirosis among human and susceptible animals predisposed to several of the risk factors identified in Malaysia.

    METHODS: Literature searchers and reviews were conducted based on articles published in citation index journals, Malaysian ministry of health reports, periodicals as well as reliable newspapers articles and online media platforms. In each case, the newspapers and online media reports were supported by press briefings by officials of the ministry of health and other agencies responsible.

    RESULTS: The disease is endemic in Malaysia, and this was attributed to the large number of reservoir animals, suitable humid and moist environment for proliferation as well as abundant forest resources. Over 30 different serovars have been detected in Malaysia in different domestic and wild animal species. This, in addition to the frequency of flooding which has increased in recent years, and has helped increase the risk of human exposure. Occupation, recreation, flooding and rodent population were all identified as an important source and cause of the disease within the study population.

    CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for the government and other stakeholders to intensify efforts to control the spread of the disease, especially as it greatly affect human health and the tourism industry which is an important component of the Malaysian economy. The risk of infection can be minimized by creating awareness on the source and mode of transmission of the disease, including the use of protective clothing and avoiding swimming in contaminated waters. Moreover, improved diagnostics can also help reduce the suffering and mortalities that follow infection after exposure to infection source.

    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  17. An ambient temperature stable and ready-to-use loop-mediated isothermal amplification assay for detection of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in outbreak settings
    Engku Nur Syafirah EAR, Nurul Najian AB, Foo PC, Mohd Ali MR, Mohamed M, Yean CY
    Acta Trop, 2018 Jun;182:223-231.
    PMID: 29545156 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.03.004
    Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae is a foodborne disease that frequently reported in food and water related outbreak. Rapid diagnosis of cholera infection is important to avoid potential spread of disease. Among available diagnostic platforms, loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is regarded as a potential diagnostic tool due to its rapidity, high sensitivity and specificity and independent of sophisticated thermalcycler. However, the current LAMP often requires multiple pipetting steps, hence is susceptible to cross contamination. Besides, the strict requirement of cold-chain during transportation and storage make its application in low resource settings to be inconvenient. To overcome these problems, the present study is aimed to develop an ambient-temperature-stable and ready-to-use LAMP assay for the detection of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in low resource settings. A set of specific LAMP primers were designed and tested against 155 V. cholerae and non-V. cholerae strains. Analytical specifity showed that the developed LAMP assay detected 100% of pathogenic V. cholerae and did not amplified other tested bacterial strains. Upon testing against stool samples spiked with toxigenic V. cholerae outbreak isolates, the LAMP assay detected all of the spiked samples (n = 76/76, 100%), in contrast to the conventional PCR which amplified 77.6% (n = 59/76) of the tested specimens. In term of sensitivity, the LAMP assay was 100-fold more sensitive as compared to the conventional PCR method, with LOD of 10 fg per μL and 10 CFU per mL. Following lyophilisation with addition of lyoprotectants, the dry-reagent LAMP mix has an estimated shelf-life of 90.75 days at room temperature.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  18. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the fusion protein cleavage site of Newcastle disease virus field isolates from Iran
    Kianizadeh M, Aini I, Omar AR, Yusoff K, Sahrabadi M, Kargar R
    Acta Virol., 2002;46(4):247-51.
    PMID: 12693862
    Nine Newcastle disease virus (NDV) isolates from Newcastle disease (ND) outbreaks in different regions of Iran were characterized at molecular level. Sequence analysis revealed that the isolates shared two pairs of arginine and a phenylalanine at the N-terminus of the fusion (F) protein cleavage site similarly to other velogenic isolates of NDV characterized earlier. Eight of the nine isolates had the same amino acid sequence as VOL95, a Russian NDV isolate from 1995. However, one isolate, MK13 showed 5 amino acid substitutions, of which 3 have been reported for other velogenic NDV isolates. These results suggest that the origin of the outbreaks of ND in different parts of Iran in 1995-1998 is VOL95.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks/veterinary*
  19. Fulltext The Impact of CRISPR-Cas System on Antiviral Therapy
    Bayat H, Naderi F, Khan AH, Memarnejadian A, Rahimpour A
    Adv Pharm Bull, 2018 Nov;8(4):591-597.
    PMID: 30607331 DOI: 10.15171/apb.2018.067
    Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-associated protein nuclease (Cas) is identified as an adaptive immune system in archaea and bacteria. Type II of this system, CRISPR-Cas9, is the most versatile form that has enabled facile and efficient targeted genome editing. Viral infections have serious impacts on global health and conventional antiviral therapies have not yielded a successful solution hitherto. The CRISPR-Cas9 system represents a promising tool for eliminating viral infections. In this review, we highlight 1) the recent progress of CRISPR-Cas technology in decoding and diagnosis of viral outbreaks, 2) its applications to eliminate viral infections in both pre-integration and provirus stages, and 3) various delivery systems that are employed to introduce the platform into target cells.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks
  20. Performance of univariate forecasting on seasonal diseases: the case of tuberculosis
    Permanasari AE, Rambli DR, Dominic PD
    Adv Exp Med Biol, 2011;696:171-9.
    PMID: 21431557 DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-7046-6_17
    The annual disease incident worldwide is desirable to be predicted for taking appropriate policy to prevent disease outbreak. This chapter considers the performance of different forecasting method to predict the future number of disease incidence, especially for seasonal disease. Six forecasting methods, namely linear regression, moving average, decomposition, Holt-Winter's, ARIMA, and artificial neural network (ANN), were used for disease forecasting on tuberculosis monthly data. The model derived met the requirement of time series with seasonality pattern and downward trend. The forecasting performance was compared using similar error measure in the base of the last 5 years forecast result. The findings indicate that ARIMA model was the most appropriate model since it obtained the less relatively error than the other model.
    Matched MeSH terms: Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data
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