METHODS: The location and capability of hospitals to perform the Bellwether procedures was obtained from the Ministry of Health (MoH) and MoH hospital specific websites. The Malaysian population data were retrieved from the national department of statistics. Times for patients to travel to hospital were calculated by combining manual contouring and geospatial mapping.
RESULTS: There were 49 Bellwether-capable MoH hospitals serving a national population of 32.5 million. Overall 94% of Malaysia's population have access to the Bellwethers within two hours. This coverage is universal in West (Peninsular) Malaysia, but there is only 73% coverage in East Malaysia, with 1.8 million residents of Sabah and Sarawak not having timely access. Malaysia's Bellwether capacity compares well with other countries in World Health Organisation's Western Pacific region.
CONCLUSION: There is good access to essential and emergency surgical services in Malaysia. The incomplete access for 1.8 million people in East Malaysia will inform national surgical planning.
DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Ten-year horizon (2016-25) modeling study of opioid addiction epidemic and treatment that accommodated potential peer effects in opioid use initiation and supply-induced treatment demand in three Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, comprising a simulated population of people at risk of and with OUD.
MEASUREMENTS: Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained in the simulated population.
FINDINGS: An estimated 12.2-, 2.4- and 13.4-fold OAT capacity increase over 2016 baseline capacity in Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, respectively, would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of one per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) per quality-adjusted life-year gained. This result is robust to parametric and structural uncertainty. Even under the most ambitious capacity increase, OAT coverage (i.e. the proportion of people with OUD receiving OAT) over a 10-year modeling horizon would be 20, 11 and 17% in Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, respectively, owing to limited demand.
CONCLUSIONS: It is estimated that a substantial increase in opioid agonist treatment (OAT) capacity in three Ukrainian cities would be cost-effective for a wide range of willingness-to-pay thresholds. Even a very ambitious capacity increase, however, is unlikely to reach internationally recommended coverage levels. Further increases in coverage may be limited by demand and would require addressing existing structural barriers to OAT access.