Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 56 in total

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  1. Ab Rahman A, Ahmad Z, Naing L, Sulaiman SA, Hamid AM, Daud WN
    PMID: 18613559
    The objective of this case-control study was to determine the association between herbal medicine use during pregnancy and perinatal mortality in Tumpat District, Kelantan, Malaysia. Cases were mothers who gave birth from June 2002 to June 2005 with a history of perinatal mortality, while controls were those without a history of perinatal infant mortality. A total of 316 mothers (106 cases and 210 controls) were interviewed. The use of unidentified herbs prepared by traditional midwives and other types of herbal medicines during the first trimester of pregnancy were positively associated with perinatal mortality (OR = 5.24, 95% CI = 1.13; 24.23 and OR = 8.90, 95%, CI = 1.35; 58.53, respectively). The use of unidentified "Orang Asli" herbs and coconut oil during the third trimester of pregnancy were negatively associated with perinatal mortality in Tumpat (OR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.02; 0.59 and OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.25; 0.92, respectively). These findings suggest the use of unidentified "Orang Asli" herbs and coconut oil in late pregnancy are protective against perinatal mortality, while the use of unidentified herbs prepared by traditional midwives and other types of herbal medicines in early pregnancy has an increased risk of perinatal infant mortality. Pharmacological studies to confirm and identify the compounds in these herbs and their effects on the fetus should be conducted in the future.
    Matched MeSH terms: Perinatal Mortality/trends*
  2. Abdul-Razak S, Azzopardi PS, Patton GC, Mokdad AH, Sawyer SM
    J Adolesc Health, 2017 Oct;61(4):424-433.
    PMID: 28838752 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2017.05.014
    PURPOSE: A rapid epidemiological transition in developing countries in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by major shifts in the health status of children and adolescents. In this article, mortality estimates in Malaysian children and adolescents from 1990 to 2013 are used to illustrate these changes.

    METHODS: All-cause and cause-specific mortality estimates were obtained from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study. Data were extracted from 1990 to 2013 for the developmental age range from 1 to 24 years, for both sexes. Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality for the major epidemiological causes were estimated.

    RESULTS: From 1990 to 2013, all-cause mortality decreased in all age groups. Reduction of all-cause mortality was greatest in 1- to 4-year-olds (2.4% per year reduction) and least in 20- to 24-year-olds (.9% per year reduction). Accordingly, in 2013, all-cause mortality was highest in 20- to 24-year-old males (129 per 100,000 per year). In 1990, the principal cause of death for 1- to 9-year boys and girls was vaccine preventable diseases. By 2013, neoplasms had become the major cause of death in 1-9 year olds of both sexes. The major cause of death in 10- to 24-year-old females was typhoid in 1990 and neoplasms in 2013, whereas the major cause of death in 10- to 24-year-old males remained road traffic injuries.

    CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in mortality across the epidemiological transition in Malaysia has been much less pronounced for adolescents than younger children. The contribution of injuries and noncommunicable diseases to adolescent mortality suggests where public health strategies should focus.

    Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends
  3. Abootalebi S, Aertker BM, Andalibi MS, Asdaghi N, Aykac O, Azarpazhooh MR, et al.
    J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis, 2020 Sep;29(9):104938.
    PMID: 32807412 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2020.104938
    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2), now named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), may change the risk of stroke through an enhanced systemic inflammatory response, hypercoagulable state, and endothelial damage in the cerebrovascular system. Moreover, due to the current pandemic, some countries have prioritized health resources towards COVID-19 management, making it more challenging to appropriately care for other potentially disabling and fatal diseases such as stroke. The aim of this study is to identify and describe changes in stroke epidemiological trends before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

    METHODS: This is an international, multicenter, hospital-based study on stroke incidence and outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We will describe patterns in stroke management, stroke hospitalization rate, and stroke severity, subtype (ischemic/hemorrhagic), and outcomes (including in-hospital mortality) in 2020 during COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them with the corresponding data from 2018 and 2019, and subsequently 2021. We will also use an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the change in stroke hospitalization rates before, during, and after COVID-19, in each participating center.

    CONCLUSION: The proposed study will potentially enable us to better understand the changes in stroke care protocols, differential hospitalization rate, and severity of stroke, as it pertains to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, this will help guide clinical-based policies surrounding COVID-19 and other similar global pandemics to ensure that management of cerebrovascular comorbidity is appropriately prioritized during the global crisis. It will also guide public health guidelines for at-risk populations to reduce risks of complications from such comorbidities.

    Matched MeSH terms: Hospital Mortality/trends
  4. Al-Sunaidar KA, Prof Abd Aziz N, Prof Hassan Y
    Int J Clin Pharm, 2020 Apr;42(2):527-538.
    PMID: 32144611 DOI: 10.1007/s11096-020-01005-4
    Background The appropriateness of antibiotics is the basis for improving the survival of patients with sepsis. Objective This study aimed to determine the appropriateness of empirical antibiotics, reasons for non-appropriate empirical antibiotics, risk factors of mortality, length of stay in intensive care unit (ICU-LOS) and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score predictors in adult patients with sepsis. Setting An adult ICU of a tertiary hospital in  Malaysia. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted amongst patients with sepsis. Data were retrieved from the patients' files and computer system. Each case was reviewed for the appropriateness of empirical antibiotics based on ICU local guidelines, bacterial sensitivity, dose, frequency, creatinine clearance and time of administration of empirical antibiotics. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression modelling were performed to compute the adjusted association of receiving appropriate or inappropriate empirical antibiotics with ICU mortality. Multivariable linear regression modelling was performed using ICU-LOS and APACHE II scores. Main outcome measures were ICU mortality, severity score (APACHE II scores) and ICU-LOS. Results The total mortality rate amongst the 228 adult ICU patients was 84.6%. Males showed a higher mortality rate (119 [52.2%]) than females (74 [32.5%]). Inappropriate empirical antibiotics were significantly associated with mortality and ICU-LOS (P 
    Matched MeSH terms: Hospital Mortality/trends
  5. Ameratunga S, George A
    Lancet, 2021 10 30;398(10311):1545-1547.
    PMID: 34755617 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01603-2
    Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
  6. Boo NY, Cheah IG, Neoh SH, Chee SC, Malaysian National Neonatal Registry
    Neonatology, 2016;110(2):116-24.
    PMID: 27074004 DOI: 10.1159/000444316
    BACKGROUND: Early nasal continuous positive airway pressure (EnCPAP) therapy after birth for very low birth weight (VLBW; <1,500 g) neonates has been reported to be beneficial in developed countries. Its benefits in developing countries, such as Malaysia, are unknown.

    OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine EnCPAP rates in 36 neonatal intensive care units of the Malaysian National Neonatal Registry (MNNR) in 2013, to compare the outcomes of VLBW neonates with and without EnCPAP, and to determine whether the availability of CPAP facilities and unit policies played a significant role in EnCPAP rates.

    METHODS: First, a retrospective cohort study was conducted of VLBW neonates born in the hospitals participating in the study without major congenital abnormalities in the MNNR. This was followed by a questionnaire survey of these hospitals focussed on CPAP facilities and unit policies.

    RESULTS: Of the 2,823 neonates, 963 (34.1%) received EnCPAP. Amongst EnCPAP neonates significantly fewer deaths were recorded (10.9 vs. 21.7%; p < 0.001), less bronchopulmonary dysplasia was observed (BPD; 8.0 vs. 11.7%; p = 0.002) and fewer mechanical ventilation days were necessary (p < 0.001) than in non-EnCPAP neonates. Logistic regression analysis showed that EnCPAP was significantly associated with a lower mortality (adjusted OR 0.623; 95% CI 0.472, 0.824; p = 0.001) and BPD among survivors (adjusted OR 0.585; 95% CI 0.427, 0.802; p = 0.001). The median EnCPAP rate of the 36 hospitals was 28.4% (IQR 14.3-38.7). Hospitals with CPAP facilities in the delivery suites (p = 0.001) and during transport (p = 0.001) and a policy for EnCPAP (p = 0.036) had significantly higher EnCPAP rates.

    CONCLUSION: EnCPAP reduced mortality and BPD in Malaysian VLBW neonates. Resource-strapped developing countries should prioritise the use of this low-cost therapy.

    Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*
  7. Boo NY, Puah CH, Lye MS
    J Trop Pediatr, 2000 Feb;46(1):15-20.
    PMID: 10730035
    A case-control study was carried out on 152 extremely low birthweight (ELBW, < 1000 g) infants born consecutively in a large Malaysian maternity hospital during a 21-month period to determine the significant predictors associated with survival at discharge. Forty-nine (32.2 per cent) of these infants survived and 103 (67.8 per cent) died. The survivors weighed significantly heavier (mean = 888 g, SD = 99) than infants who died (mean = 763 g, SD = 131; p < 0.0001). They were also of higher gestational age (mean = 28.7 weeks, SD = 2.2) than those who died (mean = 26.7 weeks, SD = 2.5; p < 0.0001). Logistic regression analysis showed that, after controlling for various confounders, only three factors were significantly associated with the survival of these infants. These were: (1) increasing birthweight of the infants (with every gram increase in birthweight, adjusted odds ratio of survival was: 1.009; 95 per cent CI 1.004, 1.015; p = 0.0006); (2) given nasal continuous positive airway pressure for treatment of respiratory distress syndrome (adjusted odds ratio of survival: 4.2; 95 per cent CI 1.2, 14.0; p = 0.02); and (3) given expressed breastmilk (adjusted odds ratio of survival: 57.5; 95 per cent CI: 7, 474; p = 0.0002). Maternal illness, intrapartum problems, ethnicity, gestational age, use of antenatal steroid, modes of delivery, Apgar scores, congenital anomalies, respiratory distress syndrome, persistent ductus arteriosus, septicemia, necrotising enterocolitis, chronic lung disease, oxygen therapy, intermittent positive pressure ventilation, surfactant therapy, and blood transfusion were not significant factors associated with increased survival.
    Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*
  8. Brehm U
    Soc Sci Med, 1993 May;36(10):1331-4.
    PMID: 8511619
    In Peninsular Malaysia child mortality rates (5q0) vary from 13 to 63 per thousand at district level. The spatial pattern is closely associated with the regional distribution of socio-economic factors. But due to multicollinearity it is difficult to isolate the influence of socio-economic variables from other variables by employing aggregated data. However, individual data collected in a case-control-study that was conducted in Perlis and Kuala Terengganu confirm the important role of socio-economic factors. So it should be possible to achieve a further reduction of child mortality by raising the income and educational level of the under-privileged groups. Apart from that, as the case of Perlis shows, the provision of family planning and preventive medical services may also contribute to lower child mortality independent from socio-economic changes. But, as the comparison with Kuala Terengganu shows, the utilization of family planning and preventive medical services is not only influenced by the accessibility to, but also by the socio-culturally determined acceptability of such services.
    Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*; Mortality/trends*
  9. Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, et al.
    Nature, 2019 Oct;574(7778):353-358.
    PMID: 31619795 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
    Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
    Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*; Child Mortality/trends*
  10. Cameron NA, Molsberry R, Pierce JB, Perak AM, Grobman WA, Allen NB, et al.
    J Am Coll Cardiol, 2020 12 01;76(22):2611-2619.
    PMID: 33183896 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2020.09.601
    BACKGROUND: Rates of maternal mortality are increasing in the United States with significant rural-urban disparities. Pre-pregnancy hypertension is a well-established risk factor for adverse maternal and offspring outcomes.

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to describe trends in maternal pre-pregnancy hypertension among women in rural and urban areas in 2007 to 2018 in order to inform community-engaged prevention and policy strategies.

    METHODS: We performed a nationwide, serial cross-sectional study using maternal data from all live births in women age 15 to 44 years between 2007 and 2018 (CDC Natality Database). Rates of pre-pregnancy hypertension were calculated per 1,000 live births overall and by urbanization status. Subgroup analysis in standard 5-year age categories was performed. We quantified average annual percentage change using Joinpoint Regression and rate ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) to compare yearly rates between rural and urban areas.

    RESULTS: Among 47,949,381 live births to women between 2007 and 2018, rates of pre-pregnancy hypertension per 1,000 live births increased among both rural (13.7 to 23.7) and urban women (10.5 to 20.0). Two significant inflection points were identified in 2010 and 2016, with highest annual percentage changes between 2016 and 2018 in rural and urban areas. Although absolute rates were lower in younger compared with older women in both rural and urban areas, all age groups experienced similar increases. The rate ratios of pre-pregnancy hypertension in rural compared with urban women ranged from 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.35) for ages 15 to 19 years to 1.51 (95% CI: 1.39 to 1.64) for ages 40 to 44 years in 2018.

    CONCLUSIONS: Maternal burden of pre-pregnancy hypertension has nearly doubled in the past decade and the rural-urban gap has persisted.

    Matched MeSH terms: Maternal Mortality/trends*
  11. Chia BH, Chia A, Yee NW, Choo TB
    Arch Suicide Res, 2010;14(3):276-83.
    PMID: 20658381 DOI: 10.1080/13811118.2010.494147
    The objective of this study was to investigate suicide trends in Singapore between 1955 and 2004. Suicide cases were identified from the Registry of Birth and Death, Singapore, and analyzed using Poisson regression. Overall, suicide rates in Singapore remained stable between 9.8-13.0/100,000 over the last 5 decades. Rates remain highest in elderly males, despite declines among the elderly and middle-aged males in recent years. Rates in ethnic Chinese and Indians were consistently higher than in Malays. While the rates among female Indians and Chinese have declined significantly between 1995 and 2004, some increase was noted in female Malays. Although there was no increase in overall suicide rates, risk within certain population segments has changed over time.
    Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
  12. Dagenais GR, Leong DP, Rangarajan S, Lanas F, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Gupta R, et al.
    Lancet, 2020 03 07;395(10226):785-794.
    PMID: 31492501 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32007-0
    BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches.

    METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years.

    FINDINGS: This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5-10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs.

    INTERPRETATION: Among adults aged 35-70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care.

    FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

    Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
  13. Ekman B, Pathmanathan I, Liljestrand J
    Lancet, 2008 Sep 13;372(9642):990-1000.
    PMID: 18790321 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61408-7
    For women and children, especially those who are poor and disadvantaged, to benefit from primary health care, they need to access and use cost-effective interventions for maternal, newborn, and child health. The challenge facing weak health systems is how to deliver such packages. Experiences from countries such as Iran, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and China, and from projects in countries like Tanzania and India, show that outcomes in maternal, newborn, and child health can be improved through integrated packages of cost-effective health-care interventions that are implemented incrementally in accordance with the capacity of health systems. Such packages should include community-based interventions that act in combination with social protection and intersectoral action in education, infrastructure, and poverty reduction. Interventions need to be planned and implemented at the district level, which requires strengthening of district planning and management skills. Furthermore, districts need to be supported by national strategies and policies, and, in the case of the least developed countries, also by international donors and other partners. If packages for maternal, newborn and child health care can be integrated within a gradually strengthened primary health-care system, continuity of care will be improved, including access to basic referral care before and during pregnancy, birth, the postpartum period, and throughout childhood.
    Matched MeSH terms: Maternal Mortality/trends
  14. Fix AG
    Hum Biol, 1991 Apr;63(2):211-20.
    PMID: 2019414
    An excess of male over female deaths is characteristic of modern national populations, whereas in some high-mortality societies female mortality exceeds that of males. Among the Semai Senoi, a Malaysian Orang Asli ("aboriginal") population, women experienced higher mortality than males in the decades before 1969. This differential occurred in all age classes older than 15 years so that the sex ratio progressively increased with age. A recent (1987) restudy of the Semai population found that sex-specific differential mortality is much reduced. A comparison of the 1969 and 1987 life tables shows a sharp shift in the sex ratios of mortality for the post-15-year-old age classes (the geometric means of age classes 15-44 were 0.768 in 1969 and 0.997 in 1987) so that male and female expectations of further life at age 15 are now nearly identical. In contrast to the best-known cases of high female mortality (mostly in South Asia), Semai sex differential mortality does not include the childhood ages. The Semai have traditionally been relatively sexually egalitarian, and sex bias in care has not occurred. Analysis of sex-specific causes of death for the pre-1969 population suggests that maternal mortality is the major cause of the excess female deaths. The reduced number of maternal deaths seems largely due to better health care, particularly the availability of hospital services. Interestingly, the reduction in female mortality has occurred simultaneously with increased fertility, and overall mortality has continued at relatively high levels (eO less than 36). Thus, rather than forming a component of a unitary demographic transition, declining sex differences in mortality can be accounted for by a specific factor, better maternal care.
    Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
  15. GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators
    Lancet, 2016 Oct 08;388(10053):1459-1544.
    PMID: 27733281 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1
    BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
    METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
    FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.
    INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    Malaysian collaborators: Southern University College, Skudai, Malaysia (Y J Kim PhD); School of Medical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia (K I Musa MD); Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (R Sahathevan PhD); Department of Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (C T Sreeramareddy MD); WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia (A L Thorne-Lyman ScD)
    Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
  16. Ghoreishi A, Arsang-Jang S, Sabaa-Ayoun Z, Yassi N, Sylaja PN, Akbari Y, et al.
    J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis, 2020 Dec;29(12):105321.
    PMID: 33069086 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2020.105321
    BACKGROUND: The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global healthcare systems and this may affect stroke care and outcomes. This study examines the changes in stroke epidemiology and care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zanjan Province, Iran.

    METHODS: This study is part of the CASCADE international initiative. From February 18, 2019, to July 18, 2020, we followed ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospitalization rates and outcomes in Valiasr Hospital, Zanjan, Iran. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model and an interrupted time series analysis (ITS) to identify changes in stroke hospitalization rate, baseline stroke severity [measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS)], disability [measured by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS)], presentation time (last seen normal to hospital presentation), thrombolytic therapy rate, median door-to-needle time, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality. We compared in-hospital mortality between study periods using Cox-regression model.

    RESULTS: During the study period, 1,026 stroke patients were hospitalized. Stroke hospitalization rates per 100,000 population decreased from 68.09 before the pandemic to 44.50 during the pandemic, with a significant decline in both Bayesian [Beta: -1.034; Standard Error (SE): 0.22, 95% CrI: -1.48, -0.59] and ITS analysis (estimate: -1.03, SE = 0.24, p 

    Matched MeSH terms: Hospital Mortality/trends
  17. Global Burden of Disease 2016 Injury Collaborators, Naghavi M, Marczak LB, Kutz M, Shackelford KA, Arora M, et al.
    JAMA, 2018 Aug 28;320(8):792-814.
    PMID: 30167700 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2018.10060
    IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.

    DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.

    EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access.

    MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.

    RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P 

    Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
  18. Global Burden of Disease Child and Adolescent Health Collaboration, Kassebaum N, Kyu HH, Zoeckler L, Olsen HE, Thomas K, et al.
    JAMA Pediatr, 2017 Jun 01;171(6):573-592.
    PMID: 28384795 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250
    IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

    OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

    FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

    Matched MeSH terms: Child Mortality/trends
  19. Global Burden of Disease Pediatrics Collaboration, Kyu HH, Pinho C, Wagner JA, Brown JC, Bertozzi-Villa A, et al.
    JAMA Pediatr, 2016 Mar;170(3):267-87.
    PMID: 26810619 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.4276
    IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.

    OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.

    FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

    Matched MeSH terms: Child Mortality/trends
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