METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.
DESIGN: Longitudinal study.
SETTING: UVB exposure (using polysulfone film badges) and skin colour and dietary vitamin D intake (by web-based questionnaire) were measured at each season in AB and during south-west (SWM) and north-east monsoons (NEM) in KL.
SUBJECTS: One hundred and fifteen Asians in KL and eighty-five Asians in AB aged 20-50 years.
RESULTS: Median summer UVB exposure of Asians in AB (0·25 SED/d) was higher than UVB exposure for the KL participants (SWM=0·20 SED/d, P=0·02; NEM= 0·14 SED/d, P<0·01). UVB exposure was the major source of vitamin D in KL year-round (60%) but only during summer in AB (59%). Median dietary vitamin D intake was higher in AB (3·50 µg/d (140 IU/d)), year-round, than in KL (SWM=2·05 µg/d (82 IU/d); NEM=1·83 µg/d (73 IU/d), P<0·01). Median total vitamin D (UVB plus diet) was higher in AB only during summer (8·45 µg/d (338 IU/d)) compared with KL (SWM=6·03 µg/d (241 IU/d), P=0·04; NEM=5·35 µg/d (214 IU/d), P<0·01), with a comparable intake across the full year (AB=5·75 µg/d (230 IU/d); KL=6·15 µg/d (246 IU/d), P=0·78).
CONCLUSIONS: UVB exposure among Asians in their home country is low. For Asians residing at the northerly latitude of Scotland, acquiring vitamin D needs from UVB exposure alone (except in summer) may be challenging due to low ambient UVB in AB (available only from April to October).