METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out from 1 April 2018 to 31 January 2019 in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia, which targeted febrile individuals attending hospitals and primary healthcare centres. Participants' demographic data were collected, including age, gender, nationality, and residence. Moreover, association of climatic variables with the monthly autochthonous malaria cases reported during the period of 2010-2017 was retrospectively analysed.
RESULTS: A total of 1124 febrile subjects were found to be positive for malaria during the study period. Among them, 94.3 and 5.7% were infected with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively. In general, subjects aged 18-30 years and those aged over 50 years had the highest (42.7%) and lowest (5.9%) percentages of malaria cases. Similarly, the percentage of malaria-positive cases was higher among males than females (86.2 vs 13.8%), among non-Saudi compared to Saudi subjects (70.6 vs 29.4%), and among patients residing in rural rather than in urban areas (89.8 vs 10.2%). A total of 407 autochthonous malaria cases were reported in Jazan region between 2010 and 2017. Results of zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis showed that monthly average temperature and relative humidity were the significant climatic determinants of autochthonous malaria in the region.
CONCLUSION: Malaria remains a public health problem in most governorates of Jazan region. The identification and monitoring of malaria transmission hotspots and predictors would enable control efforts to be intensified and focused on specific areas and therefore expedite the elimination of residual malaria from the whole region.
RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness.
CONCLUSION: The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Lethality was calculated as the rate of deaths in a determinate moment from the outbreak of the pandemic out of the total of identified positives for COVID-19 in a given area/nation, based on the COVID-John Hopkins University website. Lethality of countries located within the 5th parallels North/South on 6 April and 6 May 2020, was compared with that of all the other countries. Lethality in the European areas of The Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom was also compared to the territories of the same nations in areas with a non-temperate climate.
RESULTS: A lower lethality rate of COVID-19 was found in Equatorial countries both on April 6 (OR=0.72 CI 95% 0.66-0.80) and on May 6 (OR=0.48, CI 95% 0.47-0.51), with a strengthening over time of the protective effect. A trend of higher risk in European vs. non-temperate areas was found on April 6, but a clear difference was evident one month later: France (OR=0.13, CI 95% 0.10-0.18), The Netherlands (OR=0.5, CI 95% 0.3-0.9) and the UK (OR=0.2, CI 95% 0.01-0.51). This result does not seem to be totally related to the differences in age distribution of different sites.
CONCLUSIONS: The study does not seem to exclude that the lethality of COVID-19 may be climate sensitive. Future studies will have to confirm these clues, due to potential confounding factors, such as pollution, population age, and exposure to malaria.