METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: One million T2D people aged 40-79 registered in the National Diabetes Registry (2009-2018) were linked to death records (censored on 31 December 2019). Standardized absolute mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated relative to the Malaysian general population, and standardized to the 2019 registry population with respect to sex, age group, and disease duration.
RESULTS: Overall all-cause standardized mortality rates were unchanged in both sexes. Rates increased in males aged 40-49 (annual average percent change [AAPC]: 2.46 % [95 % CI 0.42 %, 4.55 %]) and 50-59 (AAPC: 1.91 % [95 % CI 0.73 %, 3.10 %]), and females aged 40-49 (AAPC: 3.39 % [95 % CI 1.32 %, 5.50 %]). In both sexes, rates increased among those with 1) > 15 years disease duration, 2) prior cardiovascular disease, and 3) Bumiputera (Malay/native) ethnicity. The overall SMR was 1.83 (95 % CI 1.80, 1.86) for males and 1.85 (95 % CI 1.82, 1.89) for females, being higher in younger age groups and showed an increasing trend in those with either > 15 years disease duration or prior cardiovascular disease.
CONCLUSIONS: Mortality trends worsened in certain T2D population in Malaysia.
METHODS: Data from death records, 1998-2002, and from 2001 Census data were extracted for seven migrant groups [New Zealand; United Kingdom (UK)/Ireland; Germany; Greece; Italy; China/Singapore/Malaysia/Vietnam (East Asia); and India/Sri Lanka (South Asia)] aged 45-64 years. Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate the duration of residence effect (categorized in 5-year bands and also as having arrived 2-16, 17-31 and 32 years ago or more), adjusted for sex, 5-year age group and year of death, then additionally for occupational class and marital status (SES) on relative risks (RR) of CVD mortality.
RESULTS: Compared with the Australia-born population, CVD mortality was generally lower in each migrant group. Decreasing mortality with increasing duration of residence was observed for migrants from New Zealand (RR 0.95, 95% Confidence Interval 0.92-0.98, P<0.01, per 5-year increase), Greece (0.90, 0.86-0.94, P<0.01), Italy (0.94, 0.91-0.97, P<0.01) and South Asia (0.95, 0.91-0.99, P<0.01), mainly in older age groups. Trends remained after SES adjustment and also when broader categories of duration of residence were used. CVD mortality among migrants from the UK/Ireland appeared to converge towards those of the Australian-born.
CONCLUSIONS: These results show divergence in CVD mortality compared with the Australian rate for New Zealanders, Greeks, Italians and South Asians. Sustained cardio-protective behavioural practices in the Australian setting is a potential explanation.
METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated for 16 amenable causes of death in Singapore for six 5-year periods (1965-1969,..., 1990-1994), and for each of the three main ethnic groups for three periods (1989-1991, 1992-1994, 1995- 1997). Amenable mortality rates were divided into those which can be reduced by timely therapeutic care for 'treatable' conditions (e.g. asthma and appendicitis), or by primary preventive measures for 'preventable' conditions (e.g. lung cancer and motor vehicle injury).
RESULTS: Amenable mortality was higher in males (age-standardized rate 109.7 per 100 000 population) than in females (age-standardized rate 60.7 per 100 000 population). Amenable mortality declined by 1.77% a year in males and 1.72% a year in females. By comparison, the average yearly decline in non-amenable mortality was 0.91% in males and 1.17% in females. The decline in amenable mortality was largely due to 'treatable' causes rather than a decline in mortality due to 'preventable' causes of death. Amenable mortality was lowest for Chinese and highest for Malays. Over the recent 9-year period from 1989 to 1997, amenable mortality declined more in Chinese than in Malays and Indians. However, Indian females showed by far the sharpest decline, whereas Indian males, by contrast, showed an increase in amenable mortality, due to both treatable and preventable causes.
CONCLUSIONS: In line with findings from European countries, amenable mortality in Singapore declined more than non-amenable mortality. There were more significant gains in mortality outcomes from medical care interventions than from primary preventive policy measures. Gender and ethnic differences in amenable mortality were also observed, highlighting issues of socioeconomic equities to be addressed in the financing and delivery of health care.
Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science for studies published from their starting dates to Aug 7, 2018. The sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and their pooled ratio (women vs men) of all-cause and CHD mortality associated with type 2 diabetes were obtained through an inverse variance-weighted random-effects meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were used to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity.
Results: The 35 analyzed prospective cohort studies included 2 314 292 individuals, among whom 254 038 all-cause deaths occurred. The pooled women vs men ratio of the HRs for all-cause and CHD mortality were 1.17 (95% CI: 1.12-1.23, I2 = 81.6%) and 1.97 (95% CI: 1.49-2.61, I2 = 86.4%), respectively. The pooled estimate of the HR for all-cause mortality was approximately 1.30 in articles in which the duration of follow-up was longer than 10 years and 1.10 in articles in which the duration of follow-up was less than 10 years. The pooled HRs for all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes was 2.33 (95% CI: 2.02-2.69) in women and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.72-2.12) in men, compared with their healthy counterparts.
Conclusions: The effect of diabetes on all-cause and CHD mortality is approximately 17 and 97% greater, respectively, for women than for men.
METHODS: This cross sectional study was conducted in December 2019 in cardiology ward of a 1000-bed tertiary care hospital of Bangladesh. Patients admitted in the ward with the diagnosis of myocardial infarction were included in the study. Socio demographic data, clinical features and patients' health seeking behavior was collected in a structured questionnaire from the patients. Median with interquartile range (IQR) of pre hospital delay were calculated and compared between different groups. Chi-square (χ2) test and binary logistic regression were used to estimate the determinants of pre-hospital delay and effect of pre-hospital delay on in-hospital mortality.
RESULTS: Three hundred thirty-seven patients was enrolled in the study and their median (IQR) pre-hospital delay was 9.0 (13.0) hours. 39.5% patients admitted in the specialized hospital within 6 h. In logistic regression, determinants of pre-hospital delay were patients age (for
DESIGN: A systematic review of the literature followed by a consensus-based voting process.
SETTING: A web-based international consensus conference.
PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred fifty-one physicians from 46 countries.
INTERVENTIONS: The authors performed a systematic literature search and identified all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) showing a significant increase in unadjusted landmark mortality among surgical or critically ill patients. The authors reviewed such studies during a meeting by a core group of experts. Studies selected after such review advanced to web-based voting by clinicians in relation to agreement, clinical practice, and willingness to include each intervention in international guidelines.
MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The authors selected 12 RCTs dealing with 12 interventions increasing mortality: diaspirin-crosslinked hemoglobin (92% of agreement among web voters), overfeeding, nitric oxide synthase inhibitor in septic shock, human growth hormone, thyroxin in acute kidney injury, intravenous salbutamol in acute respiratory distress syndrome, plasma-derived protein C concentrate, aprotinin in high-risk cardiac surgery, cysteine prodrug, hypothermia in meningitis, methylprednisolone in traumatic brain injury, and albumin in traumatic brain injury (72% of agreement). Overall, a high consistency (ranging from 80% to 90%) between agreement and clinical practice was observed.
CONCLUSION: The authors identified 12 clinical interventions showing increased mortality supported by randomized controlled trials with nonconflicting evidence, and wide agreement upon clinicians on a global scale.
METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.
INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: We used related keywords to search for studies in 3 electronic databases: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library. All eligible studies published up to April 2020 were reviewed. The findings of those studies reporting the mortality outcomes of hospitalized CVD patients with and without NAFLD were examined, and the various study results were pooled and analyzed using a random-effects model. A quality assessment using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale was performed on the studies selected for inclusion in a meta-analysis.
RESULTS: A total of 2135 studies were found, of which 3 were included in this meta-analysis. All studies were considered good quality. The mean age of the patients in the analysis was 73 years, and about half of them were men. The comorbidities reported were hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia. The results showed that hospitalized CVD patients with NAFLD were at a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality than non-NAFLD patients (adjusted hazard ratio of 2.08 [95% confidence interval, 1.56-2.59], P
OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.
EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.
RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to describe trends in maternal pre-pregnancy hypertension among women in rural and urban areas in 2007 to 2018 in order to inform community-engaged prevention and policy strategies.
METHODS: We performed a nationwide, serial cross-sectional study using maternal data from all live births in women age 15 to 44 years between 2007 and 2018 (CDC Natality Database). Rates of pre-pregnancy hypertension were calculated per 1,000 live births overall and by urbanization status. Subgroup analysis in standard 5-year age categories was performed. We quantified average annual percentage change using Joinpoint Regression and rate ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) to compare yearly rates between rural and urban areas.
RESULTS: Among 47,949,381 live births to women between 2007 and 2018, rates of pre-pregnancy hypertension per 1,000 live births increased among both rural (13.7 to 23.7) and urban women (10.5 to 20.0). Two significant inflection points were identified in 2010 and 2016, with highest annual percentage changes between 2016 and 2018 in rural and urban areas. Although absolute rates were lower in younger compared with older women in both rural and urban areas, all age groups experienced similar increases. The rate ratios of pre-pregnancy hypertension in rural compared with urban women ranged from 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.35) for ages 15 to 19 years to 1.51 (95% CI: 1.39 to 1.64) for ages 40 to 44 years in 2018.
CONCLUSIONS: Maternal burden of pre-pregnancy hypertension has nearly doubled in the past decade and the rural-urban gap has persisted.
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine EnCPAP rates in 36 neonatal intensive care units of the Malaysian National Neonatal Registry (MNNR) in 2013, to compare the outcomes of VLBW neonates with and without EnCPAP, and to determine whether the availability of CPAP facilities and unit policies played a significant role in EnCPAP rates.
METHODS: First, a retrospective cohort study was conducted of VLBW neonates born in the hospitals participating in the study without major congenital abnormalities in the MNNR. This was followed by a questionnaire survey of these hospitals focussed on CPAP facilities and unit policies.
RESULTS: Of the 2,823 neonates, 963 (34.1%) received EnCPAP. Amongst EnCPAP neonates significantly fewer deaths were recorded (10.9 vs. 21.7%; p < 0.001), less bronchopulmonary dysplasia was observed (BPD; 8.0 vs. 11.7%; p = 0.002) and fewer mechanical ventilation days were necessary (p < 0.001) than in non-EnCPAP neonates. Logistic regression analysis showed that EnCPAP was significantly associated with a lower mortality (adjusted OR 0.623; 95% CI 0.472, 0.824; p = 0.001) and BPD among survivors (adjusted OR 0.585; 95% CI 0.427, 0.802; p = 0.001). The median EnCPAP rate of the 36 hospitals was 28.4% (IQR 14.3-38.7). Hospitals with CPAP facilities in the delivery suites (p = 0.001) and during transport (p = 0.001) and a policy for EnCPAP (p = 0.036) had significantly higher EnCPAP rates.
CONCLUSION: EnCPAP reduced mortality and BPD in Malaysian VLBW neonates. Resource-strapped developing countries should prioritise the use of this low-cost therapy.
METHODS: This is an international, multicenter, hospital-based study on stroke incidence and outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We will describe patterns in stroke management, stroke hospitalization rate, and stroke severity, subtype (ischemic/hemorrhagic), and outcomes (including in-hospital mortality) in 2020 during COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them with the corresponding data from 2018 and 2019, and subsequently 2021. We will also use an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the change in stroke hospitalization rates before, during, and after COVID-19, in each participating center.
CONCLUSION: The proposed study will potentially enable us to better understand the changes in stroke care protocols, differential hospitalization rate, and severity of stroke, as it pertains to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, this will help guide clinical-based policies surrounding COVID-19 and other similar global pandemics to ensure that management of cerebrovascular comorbidity is appropriately prioritized during the global crisis. It will also guide public health guidelines for at-risk populations to reduce risks of complications from such comorbidities.