METHODS: We developed a linear optimisation model to estimate efficiency gains that could be achieved based on current procurement of OAT. We also developed a dynamic, compartmental population model of HIV transmission that included both injection and sexual risk to estimate the effect of OAT scale-up on HIV infections and mortality over a 10-year horizon. The compartmental population model was calibrated to HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine. Sources for regional data included the SyrEx database, the Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey, the Ukrainian Center for Socially Dangerous Disease Control of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Census.
FINDINGS: Under a status-quo scenario (OAT coverage of 2·7% among PWID), the number of new HIV infections among PWID in Ukraine over the next 10 years was projected to increase to 58 820 (95% CI 47 968-65 535), with striking regional differences. With optimum allocation of OAT without additional increases in procurement, OAT coverage could increase from 2·7% to 3·3% by increasing OAT doses to ensure higher retention levels. OAT scale-up to 10% and 20% over 10 years would, respectively, prevent 4368 (95% CI 3134-5243) and 10 864 (7787-13 038) new HIV infections and reduce deaths by 7096 (95% CI 5078-9160) and 17 863 (12 828-23 062), relative to the status quo. OAT expansion to 20% in five regions of Ukraine with the highest HIV burden would account for 56% of new HIV infections and 49% of deaths prevented over 10 years.
INTERPRETATION: To optimise HIV prevention and treatment goals in Ukraine, OAT must be substantially scaled up in all regions. Increased medication procurement is needed, combined with optimisation of OAT dosing. Restricting OAT scale-up to some regions of Ukraine could benefit many PWID, but the regions most affected are not necessarily those with the highest HIV burden.
FUNDING: National Institute on Drug Abuse.
METHODS: Opioid dependent PWID were interviewed and tested for HIV and HCV in five Ukrainian cities from January 2014 to March 2015. Logistic regression was used to examine the independent correlates of two cascade steps: a) anti-HCV positive status awareness; b) chronic HCV confirmation; and of c) annual HCV testing for PWID.
RESULTS: Among 1613 PWID, 1002 (62.1%) had anti-HCV positive test result, of which 568 (56.7%) were aware of it before the study and 346 (34.5%) reported previous confirmatory testing for chronic HCV. Independent correlates of being aware they had anti-HCV positivity included: current [AOR: 3.08; 95%CI: 2.16-4.40] or prior [AOR: 1.85; 95%CI: 1.27-2.68] opioid agonistic treatment (OAT) experience, relative to no prior OAT, living in Lviv [AOR: 0.50; 95%CI: 0.31-0.81] or Odesa [AOR: 2.73; 95%CI: 1.51-4.93] relative to Kyiv and being aware of having HIV [AOR: 4.10; 95%CI: 2.99-5.62]. Independent correlates of confirming HCV infection among those who were aware of their anti-HCV positive status included: current OAT [AOR: 2.00; 95%CI: 1.24-3.23], relative to prior OAT, the middle income category [AOR: 1.74, 95%CI: 1.15-2.63], relative to the lowest, and receiving ART [AOR: 4.54; 95%CI: 2.85-7.23]. Among 1613 PWID, 918 (56.9%) were either HCV negative or not aware of their HCV positive status, of which 198 (21.6%) reported recent anti-HCV test (during last 12 month). Recent anti-HCV test in this group was associated with current [AOR: 7.17; 95%CI: 4.63-11.13] or prior [AOR: 2.24; 95%CI: 1.32-3.81] OAT experience, relative to no prior OAT.
CONCLUSION: Encouraging PWID to participate in OAT may be an effective strategy to diagnose and link PWID who are HCV positive to care. Among HIV negative participants, regular HCV testing may be ensured by participation in OAT. More studies are needed to assess HCV treatment utilization among PWID in Ukraine and OAT as a possible way to retain them in treatment.
METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.