Displaying publications 41 - 60 of 80 in total

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  1. Jia TZ, Chandru K, Hongo Y, Afrin R, Usui T, Myojo K, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2019 08 06;116(32):15830-15835.
    PMID: 31332006 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1902336116
    Compartmentalization was likely essential for primitive chemical systems during the emergence of life, both for preventing leakage of important components, i.e., genetic materials, and for enhancing chemical reactions. Although life as we know it uses lipid bilayer-based compartments, the diversity of prebiotic chemistry may have enabled primitive living systems to start from other types of boundary systems. Here, we demonstrate membraneless compartmentalization based on prebiotically available organic compounds, α-hydroxy acids (αHAs), which are generally coproduced along with α-amino acids in prebiotic settings. Facile polymerization of αHAs provides a model pathway for the assembly of combinatorially diverse primitive compartments on early Earth. We characterized membraneless microdroplets generated from homo- and heteropolyesters synthesized from drying solutions of αHAs endowed with various side chains. These compartments can preferentially and differentially segregate and compartmentalize fluorescent dyes and fluorescently tagged RNA, providing readily available compartments that could have facilitated chemical evolution by protecting, exchanging, and encapsulating primitive components. Protein function within and RNA function in the presence of certain droplets is also preserved, suggesting the potential relevance of such droplets to various origins of life models. As a lipid amphiphile can also assemble around certain droplets, this further shows the droplets' potential compatibility with and scaffolding ability for nascent biomolecular systems that could have coexisted in complex chemical systems. These model compartments could have been more accessible in a "messy" prebiotic environment, enabling the localization of a variety of protometabolic and replication processes that could be subjected to further chemical evolution before the advent of the Last Universal Common Ancestor.
  2. Taheripour F, Hertel TW, Ramankutty N
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2019 09 17;116(38):19193-19199.
    PMID: 31481625 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1903476116
    The global demand for palm oil has grown rapidly over the past several decades. Much of the output expansion has occurred in carbon- and biodiversity-rich forest lands of Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I), contributing to record levels of terrestrial carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. This has led to a variety of voluntary and mandatory regulatory actions, as well as calls for limits on palm oil imports from M&I. This paper offers a comprehensive, global assessment of the economic and environmental consequences of alternative policies aimed at limiting deforestation from oil palm expansion in M&I. It highlights the challenges of limiting forest and biodiversity loss in the presence of market-mediated spillovers into related oilseed and agricultural commodity and factor markets, both in M&I and overseas. Indeed, limiting palm oil production or consumption is unlikely to halt deforestation in M&I in the absence of active forest conservation incentives. Policies aimed at restricting palm oil production in M&I also have broader consequences for the economy, including significant impacts on consumer prices, real wages, and welfare, that vary among different global regions. A crucial distinction is whether the initiative is undertaken domestically, in which case the M&I region could benefit, or by major palm oil importers, in which case M&I loses income. Nonetheless, all policies considered here pass the social welfare test of global carbon dioxide mitigation benefits exceeding their costs.
  3. Ordway EM, Asner GP
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2020 04 07;117(14):7863-7870.
    PMID: 32229568 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1914420117
    Nearly 20% of tropical forests are within 100 m of a nonforest edge, a consequence of rapid deforestation for agriculture. Despite widespread conversion, roughly 1.2 billion ha of tropical forest remain, constituting the largest terrestrial component of the global carbon budget. Effects of deforestation on carbon dynamics in remnant forests, and spatial variation in underlying changes in structure and function at the plant scale, remain highly uncertain. Using airborne imaging spectroscopy and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, we mapped and quantified changes in forest structure and foliar characteristics along forest/oil palm boundaries in Malaysian Borneo to understand spatial and temporal variation in the influence of edges on aboveground carbon and associated changes in ecosystem structure and function. We uncovered declines in aboveground carbon averaging 22% along edges that extended over 100 m into the forest. Aboveground carbon losses were correlated with significant reductions in canopy height and leaf mass per area and increased foliar phosphorus, three plant traits related to light capture and growth. Carbon declines amplified with edge age. Our results indicate that carbon losses along forest edges can arise from multiple, distinct effects on canopy structure and function that vary with edge age and environmental conditions, pointing to a need for consideration of differences in ecosystem sensitivity when developing land-use and conservation strategies. Our findings reveal that, although edge effects on ecosystem structure and function vary, forests neighboring agricultural plantations are consistently vulnerable to long-lasting negative effects on fundamental ecosystem characteristics controlling primary productivity and carbon storage.
  4. Dejea CM, Wick EC, Hechenbleikner EM, White JR, Mark Welch JL, Rossetti BJ, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Dec 23;111(51):18321-6.
    PMID: 25489084 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1406199111
    Environmental factors clearly affect colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, but the mechanisms through which these factors function are unknown. One prime candidate is an altered colonic microbiota. Here we show that the mucosal microbiota organization is a critical factor associated with a subset of CRC. We identified invasive polymicrobial bacterial biofilms (bacterial aggregates), structures previously associated with nonmalignant intestinal pathology, nearly universally (89%) on right-sided tumors (13 of 15 CRCs, 4 of 4 adenomas) but on only 12% of left-sided tumors (2 of 15 CRCs, 0 of 2 adenomas). Surprisingly, patients with biofilm-positive tumors, whether cancers or adenomas, all had biofilms on their tumor-free mucosa far distant from their tumors. Bacterial biofilms were associated with diminished colonic epithelial cell E-cadherin and enhanced epithelial cell IL-6 and Stat3 activation, as well as increased crypt epithelial cell proliferation in normal colon mucosa. High-throughput sequencing revealed no consistent bacterial genus associated with tumors, regardless of biofilm status. However, principal coordinates analysis revealed that biofilm communities on paired normal mucosa, distant from the tumor itself, cluster with tumor microbiomes as opposed to biofilm-negative normal mucosa bacterial communities also from the tumor host. Colon mucosal biofilm detection may predict increased risk for development of sporadic CRC.
  5. Yan W, Ge HM, Wang G, Jiang N, Mei YN, Jiang R, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Dec 23;111(51):18138-43.
    PMID: 25425666 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1417304111
    The Pictet-Spengler (PS) reaction constructs plant alkaloids such as morphine and camptothecin, but it has not yet been noticed in the fungal kingdom. Here, a silent fungal Pictet-Spenglerase (FPS) gene of Chaetomium globosum 1C51 residing in Epinephelus drummondhayi guts is described and ascertained to be activable by 1-methyl-L-tryptophan (1-MT). The activated FPS expression enables the PS reaction between 1-MT and flavipin (fungal aldehyde) to form "unnatural" natural products with unprecedented skeletons, of which chaetoglines B and F are potently antibacterial with the latter inhibiting acetylcholinesterase. A gene-implied enzyme inhibition (GIEI) strategy has been introduced to address the key steps for PS product diversifications. In aggregation, the work designs and validates an innovative approach that can activate the PS reaction-based fungal biosynthetic machinery to produce unpredictable compounds of unusual and novel structure valuable for new biology and biomedicine.
  6. Raes N, Cannon CH, Hijmans RJ, Piessens T, Saw LG, van Welzen PC, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Nov 25;111(47):16790-5.
    PMID: 25385612 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1403053111
    The extent of Dipterocarp rainforests on the emergent Sundaland landmass in Southeast Asia during Quaternary glaciations remains a key question. A better understanding of the biogeographic history of Sundaland could help explain current patterns of biodiversity and support the development of effective forest conservation strategies. Dipterocarpaceae trees dominate the rainforests of Sundaland, and their distributions serve as a proxy for rainforest extent. We used species distribution models (SDMs) of 317 Dipterocarp species to estimate the geographic extent of appropriate climatic conditions for rainforest on Sundaland at the last glacial maximum (LGM). The SDMs suggest that the climate of central Sundaland at the LGM was suitable to sustain Dipterocarp rainforest, and that the presence of a previously suggested transequatorial savannah corridor at that time is unlikely. Our findings are supported by palynologic evidence, dynamic vegetation models, extant mammal and termite communities, vascular plant fatty acid stable isotopic compositions, and stable carbon isotopic compositions of cave guano profiles. Although Dipterocarp species richness was generally lower at the LGM, areas of high species richness were mostly found off the current islands and on the emergent Sunda Shelf, indicating substantial species migration and mixing during the transitions between the Quaternary glacial maxima and warm periods such as the present.
  7. Ariffin H, Hainaut P, Puzio-Kuter A, Choong SS, Chan AS, Tolkunov D, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Oct 28;111(43):15497-501.
    PMID: 25313051 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1417322111
    The Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) and its variant form (LFL) is a familial predisposition to multiple forms of childhood, adolescent, and adult cancers associated with germ-line mutation in the TP53 tumor suppressor gene. Individual disparities in tumor patterns are compounded by acceleration of cancer onset with successive generations. It has been suggested that this apparent anticipation pattern may result from germ-line genomic instability in TP53 mutation carriers, causing increased DNA copy-number variations (CNVs) with successive generations. To address the genetic basis of phenotypic disparities of LFS/LFL, we performed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of 13 subjects from two generations of an LFS kindred. Neither de novo CNV nor significant difference in total CNV was detected in relation with successive generations or with age at cancer onset. These observations were consistent with an experimental mouse model system showing that trp53 deficiency in the germ line of father or mother did not increase CNV occurrence in the offspring. On the other hand, individual records on 1,771 TP53 mutation carriers from 294 pedigrees were compiled to assess genetic anticipation patterns (International Agency for Research on Cancer TP53 database). No strictly defined anticipation pattern was observed. Rather, in multigeneration families, cancer onset was delayed in older compared with recent generations. These observations support an alternative model for apparent anticipation in which rare variants from noncarrier parents may attenuate constitutive resistance to tumorigenesis in the offspring of TP53 mutation carriers with late cancer onset.
  8. Troell M, Naylor RL, Metian M, Beveridge M, Tyedmers PH, Folke C, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Sep 16;111(37):13257-63.
    PMID: 25136111 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1404067111
    Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector and continues to expand alongside terrestrial crop and livestock production. Using portfolio theory as a conceptual framework, we explore how current interconnections between the aquaculture, crop, livestock, and fisheries sectors act as an impediment to, or an opportunity for, enhanced resilience in the global food system given increased resource scarcity and climate change. Aquaculture can potentially enhance resilience through improved resource use efficiencies and increased diversification of farmed species, locales of production, and feeding strategies. However, aquaculture's reliance on terrestrial crops and wild fish for feeds, its dependence on freshwater and land for culture sites, and its broad array of environmental impacts diminishes its ability to add resilience. Feeds for livestock and farmed fish that are fed rely largely on the same crops, although the fraction destined for aquaculture is presently small (∼4%). As demand for high-value fed aquaculture products grows, competition for these crops will also rise, as will the demand for wild fish as feed inputs. Many of these crops and forage fish are also consumed directly by humans and provide essential nutrition for low-income households. Their rising use in aquafeeds has the potential to increase price levels and volatility, worsening food insecurity among the most vulnerable populations. Although the diversification of global food production systems that includes aquaculture offers promise for enhanced resilience, such promise will not be realized if government policies fail to provide adequate incentives for resource efficiency, equity, and environmental protection.
  9. Vincent JR, Carson RT, DeShazo JR, Schwabe KA, Ahmad I, Chong SK, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Jul 15;111(28):10113-8.
    PMID: 24982171 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1312246111
    Inadequate funding from developed countries has hampered international efforts to conserve biodiversity in tropical forests. We present two complementary research approaches that reveal a significant increase in public demand for conservation within tropical developing countries as those countries reach upper-middle-income (UMI) status. We highlight UMI tropical countries because they contain nearly four-fifths of tropical primary forests, which are rich in biodiversity and stored carbon. The first approach is a set of statistical analyses of various cross-country conservation indicators, which suggests that protective government policies have lagged behind the increase in public demand in these countries. The second approach is a case study from Malaysia, which reveals in a more integrated fashion the linkages from rising household income to increased household willingness to pay for conservation, nongovernmental organization activity, and delayed government action. Our findings suggest that domestic funding in UMI tropical countries can play a larger role in (i) closing the funding gap for tropical forest conservation, and (ii) paying for supplementary conservation actions linked to international payments for reduced greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in tropical countries.
  10. Ogawa S, Nathan FM, Parhar IS
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2014 Mar 11;111(10):3841-6.
    PMID: 24567386 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314184111
    Kisspeptin, a neuropeptide encoded by the KISS1/Kiss1, and its cognate G protein-coupled receptor, GPR54 (kisspeptin receptor, Kiss-R), are critical for the control of reproduction in vertebrates. We have previously identified two kisspeptin genes (kiss1 and kiss2) in the zebrafish, of which kiss1 neurons are located in the habenula, which project to the median raphe. kiss2 neurons are located in the hypothalamic nucleus and send axonal projections to gonadotropin-releasing hormone neurons and regulate reproductive functions. However, the physiological significance of the Kiss1 expressed in the habenula remains unknown. Here we demonstrate the role of habenular Kiss1 in alarm substance (AS)-induced fear response in the zebrafish. We found that AS-evoked fear experience significantly reduces kiss1 and serotonin-related genes (plasmacytoma expressed transcript 1 and solute carrier family 6, member 4) in the zebrafish. Furthermore, Kiss1 administration suppressed the AS-evoked fear response. To further evaluate the role of Kiss1 in fear response, zebrafish Kiss1 peptide was conjugated to saporin (SAP) to selectively inactivate Kiss-R1-expressing neurons. The Kiss1-SAP injection significantly reduced Kiss1 immunoreactivity and c-fos mRNA in the habenula and the raphe compared with control. Furthermore, 3 d after Kiss1-SAP injection, the fish had a significantly reduced AS-evoked fear response. These findings provide an insight into the role of the habenular kisspeptin system in inhibiting fear.
  11. Nikolov LA, Endress PK, Sugumaran M, Sasirat S, Vessabutr S, Kramer EM, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2013 Nov 12;110(46):18578-83.
    PMID: 24167265 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1310356110
    Rafflesiaceae, which produce the world's largest flowers, have captivated the attention of biologists for nearly two centuries. Despite their fame, however, the developmental nature of the floral organs in these giants has remained a mystery. Most members of the family have a large floral chamber defined by a diaphragm. The diaphragm encloses the reproductive organs where pollination by carrion flies occurs. In lieu of a functional genetic system to investigate floral development in these highly specialized holoparasites, we used comparative studies of structure, development, and gene-expression patterns to investigate the homology of their floral organs. Our results surprisingly demonstrate that the otherwise similar floral chambers in two Rafflesiaceae subclades, Rafflesia and Sapria, are constructed very differently. In Rafflesia, the diaphragm is derived from the petal whorl. In contrast, in Sapria it is derived from elaboration of a unique ring structure located between the perianth and the stamen whorl, which, although developed to varying degrees among the genera, appears to be a synapomorphy of the Rafflesiaceae. Thus, the characteristic features that define the floral chamber in these closely related genera are not homologous. These differences refute the prevailing hypothesis that similarities between Sapria and Rafflesia are ancestral in the family. Instead, our data indicate that Rafflesia-like and Sapria-like floral chambers represent two distinct derivations of this morphology. The developmental repatterning we identified in Rafflesia, in particular, may have provided architectural reinforcement, which permitted the explosive growth in floral diameter that has arisen secondarily within this subclade.
  12. Lee SH, Wong RR, Chin CY, Lim TY, Eng SA, Kong C, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2013 Sep 10;110(37):15067-72.
    PMID: 23980181 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1311725110
    Burkholderia pseudomallei is a Gram-negative soil bacterium that infects both humans and animals. Although cell culture studies have revealed significant insights into factors contributing to virulence and host defense, the interactions between this pathogen and its intact host remain to be elucidated. To gain insights into the host defense responses to B. pseudomallei infection within an intact host, we analyzed the genome-wide transcriptome of infected Caenorhabditis elegans and identified ∼6% of the nematode genes that were significantly altered over a 12-h course of infection. An unexpected feature of the transcriptional response to B. pseudomallei was a progressive increase in the proportion of down-regulated genes, of which ELT-2 transcriptional targets were significantly enriched. ELT-2 is an intestinal GATA transcription factor with a conserved role in immune responses. We demonstrate that B. pseudomallei down-regulation of ELT-2 targets is associated with degradation of ELT-2 protein by the host ubiquitin-proteasome system. Degradation of ELT-2 requires the B. pseudomallei type III secretion system. Together, our studies using an intact host provide evidence for pathogen-mediated host immune suppression through the destruction of a host transcription factor.
  13. Hall SJ, Hilborn R, Andrew NL, Allison EH
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2013 May 21;110(21):8393-8.
    PMID: 23671089 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208067110
    This article examines two strands of discourse on wild capture fisheries; one that focuses on resource sustainability and environmental impacts, another related to food and nutrition security and human well-being. Available data and research show that, for countries most dependent on fish to meet the nutritional requirements of their population, wild capture fisheries remain the dominant supplier. Although, contrary to popular narratives, the sustainability of these fisheries is not always and everywhere in crisis, securing their sustainability is essential and requires considerable effort across a broad spectrum of fishery systems. An impediment to achieving this is that the current research and policy discourses on environmental sustainability of fisheries and food security remain only loosely and superficially linked. Overcoming this requires adoption of a broader sustainability science paradigm to help harness synergies and negotiate tradeoffs between food security, resource conservation, and macroeconomic development goals. The way society chooses to govern fisheries is, however, an ethical choice, not just a technical one, and we recommend adding an ethical dimension to sustainability science as applied to fisheries.
  14. Moon RW, Sharaf H, Hastings CH, Ho YS, Nair MB, Rchiad Z, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2016 Jun 28;113(26):7231-6.
    PMID: 27303038 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1522469113
    The dominant cause of malaria in Malaysia is now Plasmodium knowlesi, a zoonotic parasite of cynomolgus macaque monkeys found throughout South East Asia. Comparative genomic analysis of parasites adapted to in vitro growth in either cynomolgus or human RBCs identified a genomic deletion that includes the gene encoding normocyte-binding protein Xa (NBPXa) in parasites growing in cynomolgus RBCs but not in human RBCs. Experimental deletion of the NBPXa gene in parasites adapted to growth in human RBCs (which retain the ability to grow in cynomolgus RBCs) restricted them to cynomolgus RBCs, demonstrating that this gene is selectively required for parasite multiplication and growth in human RBCs. NBPXa-null parasites could bind to human RBCs, but invasion of these cells was severely impaired. Therefore, NBPXa is identified as a key mediator of P. knowlesi human infection and may be a target for vaccine development against this emerging pathogen.
  15. Richards DR, Friess DA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2016 Jan 12;113(2):344-9.
    PMID: 26712025 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1510272113
    The mangrove forests of Southeast Asia are highly biodiverse and provide multiple ecosystem services upon which millions of people depend. Mangroves enhance fisheries and coastal protection, and store among the highest densities of carbon of any ecosystem globally. Mangrove forests have experienced extensive deforestation owing to global demand for commodities, and previous studies have identified the expansion of aquaculture as largely responsible. The proportional conversion of mangroves to different land use types has not been systematically quantified across Southeast Asia, however, particularly in recent years. In this study we apply a combined geographic information system and remote sensing method to quantify the key proximate drivers (i.e., replacement land uses) of mangrove deforestation in Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2012. Mangrove forests were lost at an average rate of 0.18% per year, which is lower than previously published estimates. In total, more than 100,000 ha of mangroves were removed during the study period, with aquaculture accounting for 30% of this total forest change. The rapid expansion of rice agriculture in Myanmar, and the sustained conversion of mangroves to oil palm plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia, are identified as additional increasing and under-recognized threats to mangrove ecosystems. Our study highlights frontiers of mangrove deforestation in the border states of Myanmar, on Borneo, and in Indonesian Papua. To implement policies that conserve mangrove forests across Southeast Asia, it is essential to consider the national and subnational variation in the land uses that follow deforestation.
  16. Navarro MA, Atlas EL, Saiz-Lopez A, Rodriguez-Lloveras X, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015 Nov 10;112(45):13789-93.
    PMID: 26504212 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1511463112
    Very short-lived brominated substances (VSLBr) are an important source of stratospheric bromine, an effective ozone destruction catalyst. However, the accurate estimation of the organic and inorganic partitioning of bromine and the input to the stratosphere remains uncertain. Here, we report near-tropopause measurements of organic brominated substances found over the tropical Pacific during the NASA Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment campaigns. We combine aircraft observations and a chemistry-climate model to quantify the total bromine loading injected to the stratosphere. Surprisingly, despite differences in vertical transport between the Eastern and Western Pacific, VSLBr (organic + inorganic) contribute approximately similar amounts of bromine [∼6 (4-9) parts per trillion] [corrected] to the stratospheric input at the tropical tropopause. These levels of bromine cause substantial ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere, and any increases in future abundances (e.g., as a result of aquaculture) will lead to larger depletions.
  17. Assefa S, Lim C, Preston MD, Duffy CW, Nair MB, Adroub SA, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015 Oct 20;112(42):13027-32.
    PMID: 26438871 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1509534112
    Malaria cases caused by the zoonotic parasite Plasmodium knowlesi are being increasingly reported throughout Southeast Asia and in travelers returning from the region. To test for evidence of signatures of selection or unusual population structure in this parasite, we surveyed genome sequence diversity in 48 clinical isolates recently sampled from Malaysian Borneo and in five lines maintained in laboratory rhesus macaques after isolation in the 1960s from Peninsular Malaysia and the Philippines. Overall genomewide nucleotide diversity (π = 6.03 × 10(-3)) was much higher than has been seen in worldwide samples of either of the major endemic malaria parasite species Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. A remarkable substructure is revealed within P. knowlesi, consisting of two major sympatric clusters of the clinical isolates and a third cluster comprising the laboratory isolates. There was deep differentiation between the two clusters of clinical isolates [mean genomewide fixation index (FST) = 0.21, with 9,293 SNPs having fixed differences of FST = 1.0]. This differentiation showed marked heterogeneity across the genome, with mean FST values of different chromosomes ranging from 0.08 to 0.34 and with further significant variation across regions within several chromosomes. Analysis of the largest cluster (cluster 1, 38 isolates) indicated long-term population growth, with negatively skewed allele frequency distributions (genomewide average Tajima's D = -1.35). Against this background there was evidence of balancing selection on particular genes, including the circumsporozoite protein (csp) gene, which had the top Tajima's D value (1.57), and scans of haplotype homozygosity implicate several genomic regions as being under recent positive selection.
  18. van Panhuis WG, Choisy M, Xiong X, Chok NS, Akarasewi P, Iamsirithaworn S, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015 Oct 20;112(42):13069-74.
    PMID: 26438851 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1501375112
    Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼ 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.
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