OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.
METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.
MAIN TEXT: Plasmodium knowlesi is the most common cause of malaria in Malaysia, and cases have also been reported in nearly all countries of Southeast Asia. Outside of Malaysia, P. knowlesi is frequently misdiagnosed by microscopy as Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax. Thus, P. knowlesi may be underdiagnosed in affected regions and its true incidence underestimated. Acknowledgement in the World Malaria Report of the regional importance of P. knowlesi will facilitate efforts to improve surveillance of this emerging parasite. Furthermore, increased recognition will likely lead to improved delivery of effective treatment for this potentially fatal infection, as has occurred in Malaysia where P. knowlesi case-fatality rates have fallen despite rising incidence. In a number of knowlesi-endemic countries, substantial progress has been made towards the elimination of P. vivax and P. falciparum. However, efforts to eliminate these human-only species should not preclude efforts to reduce human malaria from P. knowlesi. The regional importance of knowlesi malaria was recognized by the WHO with its recent Evidence Review Group meeting on knowlesi malaria to address strategies for prevention and mitigation.
CONCLUSION: The WHO World Malaria Report has an appropriate focus on falciparum and vivax malaria, the major causes of global mortality and morbidity. However, the authors hope that in future years this important publication will also incorporate data on the progress and challenges in reducing knowlesi malaria in regions where transmission occurs.
METHODS: Plasmodium knowlesi, P. cynomolgi, P. coatneyi, P. inui and P. fieldi, were detected using nested PCR assays in DNA samples from 276 wild-caught long-tailed macaques. These samples had been derived from macaques captured at seven locations, two each in the Philippines (n = 68) and Indonesia (n = 70), and one each in Cambodia (n = 54), Singapore (n = 40) and Laos (n = 44). The results were compared with previous studies of malaria parasites in long-tailed macaques from other locations in Southeast Asia. Fisher exact test and Chi square test were used to examine the geographic bias of the distribution of Plasmodium species in the macaque populations.
RESULTS: Out of 276 samples tested, 177 were Plasmodium-positive, with P. cynomolgi being the most common and widely distributed among all long-tailed macaque populations (53.3 %) and occurring in all populations examined, followed by P. coatneyi (20.4 %), P. inui (12.3 %), P. fieldi (3.4 %) and P. knowlesi (0.4 %). One P. knowlesi infection was detected in a macaque from Laos, representing the first documented case of P. knowlesi in wildlife in Laos. Chi square test showed three of the five parasites (P. knowlesi, P. coatneyi, P. cynomolgi) with significant bias in prevalence towards macaques from Malaysian Borneo, Cambodia, and Southern Sumatra, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of malaria parasites, including those that are transmissible to humans, varied among all sampled regional populations of long-tailed macaques in Southeast Asia. The new discovery of P. knowlesi infection in Laos, and the high prevalence of P. cynomolgi infections in wild macaques in general, indicate the strong need of public advocacy in related countries.
METHODS: The study consists of literature reviews and key stakeholders interviews in six focus countries, including the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand and five countries as best practice, comprising of France, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea. Rare disease management initiatives across each country were examined based on the World Health Organization's framework for action in strengthening health systems.
RESULTS: The results suggest rare disease management remains challenging across Southeast Asia, as many of the focus countries face fundamental issues from basic healthcare systems to funding. Nonetheless, there are substantial improvement opportunities, including leveraging best practices from around the world and organising a multi-stakeholder and regional approach and strategy.
CONCLUSIONS: Southeast Asian countries have made significant progress in the management of rare disease, but there remain key areas for substantial development opportunities.
METHODS: This multi-country cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. A multi-stage cluster sampling was used to select undergraduate students from one or two universities in each country for self-administered questionnaire survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses was performed to explore risk factors related to illicit drug use.
RESULTS: Participants included 7,923 students with a mean age of 20.6 years (SD = 2.8), ranging from 18-30 years. The overall prevalence of frequent (≥10 times), infrequent (1-9 times) and ever (at least once) illicit drug use in the past 12 months was 2.2, 14.7, and 16.9%, respectively. After adjustment, male students were significantly less likely to be infrequent (1-9 times vs. never), but significantly more likely to be ever users compared to females. Compared to those living with parents/guardians, students living away from parents/guardians were significantly less likely to be frequent (≥10 times vs. never) and infrequent users. Students from lower-middle-income countries were significantly more likely to be frequent and infrequent users, but significantly less likely to be ever users compared to those from upper-middle or high-income countries. Students with poor subjective health status were significantly more likely to be frequent users compared to those who reported good subjective health status. Students who reported binge drinking in the past month were significantly more likely to be infrequent users, but significantly less likely to be ever users.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that prevalence of illicit drug use among university students in the ASEAN region varied by country. Concerted social intervention programs should be designed to address related health and behavioral problems such as illicit drug use and alcohol drinking with particular emphasis on at-risk subgroups of this young population.
METHODS: A total of 1065 patients aged ≥18 years with T2DM initiating insulin therapy in normal clinical course were enrolled from Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand. Participants' data was recorded by the treating physicians. Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were assessed using questionnaires completed by participants.
RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 57.2 years with mean glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) of 10.0%. About 66% of patients had an HbA1c ≥9.0% at insulin initiation despite 74% of them being on two or more oral antidiabetic agents at the time of insulin initiation. Basal insulin was initiated in 72% and premixed insulin in 27% of patients. Changes in insulin therapy was observed in 63% of patients and, by the end of study, 28% achieved HbA1c levels of <7.5%. The proportion of patients completely satisfied with their insulin treatment increased over the study course and the quality of life (QoL) score increased from baseline to the study end.
CONCLUSION: As high HbA1C levels indicate a delayed start of insulin therapy, timely initiation and early intensification of insulin therapy is necessary in the region to achieve adequate glycemic control in time and prevent diabetes complications. Data from PROs suggests that the insulin treatment improves QoL in most patients.
METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 among 8809 undergraduate university students from 13 universities in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam using self-administered questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the associated factors.
RESULTS: More than half (62.3%) of the study sample were female with a mean age of 20.5 (SD = 2.0) years. Of total, 12.8% were infrequent (
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For eight destination countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Singapore), we collected age-dependent seroepidemiological data. We also retrieved the number of imported cases, who were notified to the Japanese government, as well as the total number of travelers to each destination. Using a mathematical model, we estimated the force of infection in each destination country with seroepidemiological data while jointly inferring the reporting coverage of DENV infections among Japanese travelers from datasets of imported cases and travelers. Assuming that travelers had a risk of infection that was identical to that of the local population during travel, the reporting coverage of dengue appeared to range from 0.6% to 4.3%. The risk of infection per journey ranged from 0.02% to 0.44%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found that the actual number of imported cases of DENV infection among Japanese travelers could be more than 20 times the notified number of imported cases. This finding may be attributed to the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and under-ascertained infections.
METHODS: Using Singapore Malaysia Hospital-Based Breast Cancer Registry, clinical information was retrieved from 7064 stage I to III breast cancer patients who were diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and underwent surgery. Predicted and observed probabilities of positive nodes and survival were compared for each subgroup. Calibration was assessed by plotting observed value against predicted value for each decile of the predicted value. Discrimination was evaluated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95 % confidence interval (CI).
RESULTS: The median predicted probability of positive lymph nodes is 40.6 % which was lower than the observed 43.6 % (95 % CI, 42.5 %-44.8 %). The calibration plot showed underestimation for most of the groups. The AUC was 0.71 (95 % CI, 0.70-0.72). Cancermath predicted and observed overall survival probabilities were 87.3 % vs 83.4 % at 5 years after diagnosis and 75.3 % vs 70.4 % at 10 years after diagnosis. The difference was smaller for patients from Singapore, patients diagnosed more recently and patients with favorable tumor characteristics. Calibration plot also illustrated overprediction of survival for patients with poor prognosis. The AUC for 5-year and 10-year overall survival was 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.75-0.79) and 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.71-0.76).
CONCLUSIONS: The discrimination and calibration of CancerMath were modest. The results suggest that clinical application of CancerMath should be limited to patients with better prognostic profile.
METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilizes data of adults ≥15 years who completed the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys. Ordered probit analysis is used to account for the smoking statuses of non-smokers, occasional smokers, and daily smokers.
RESULTS: Malaysian and Vietnamese households with more family members face lower smoking likelihoods than otherwise. Urbanites in Philippines and rural residents in Thailand and Indonesia are more likely to smoke on occasional and daily basis than others. Males are consistently more likely to smoke occasionally or daily and less likely to be non-smokers than females across all countries. Younger middle-age (retiree) individuals aged 30-35 (≥60) years in Malaysia and Thailand exhibit higher (lower) likelihoods to smoke occasionally or daily than their younger cohorts aged 15-29 years. Individuals aged 30 years and above in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Philippines display higher daily smoking propensities than others. Higher education levels dampens smoking likelihoods and increases non-smoking propensities in all countries. Non-government or self-employed workers in all countries are more likely to smoke occasionally or daily than unemployed persons. Being married is associated with higher non-smoking likelihoods in Thailand although this association is not evident in Malaysia.
CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that a portfolio of targeted interventions is necessary to meet the needs of specific subpopulations within the various countries.
.
METHODS: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.
RESULTS: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60% tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10-100% tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.
CONCLUSIONS: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.