METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.
Subjects and methods: This short communication reviews articles and government announcements related to containment measures and the Movement Control Order of Malaysia, and graphically presents data pertinent to Covid-19 in Malaysia in order to show the relationship between fluctuations in Covid-19 cases and movement control.
Results: At the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, Malaysia had initiated travel restrictions and quarantine; but with a persistent increase in new Covid-19 cases, the Movement Control Order was finally rolled out on 18 March 2020, requiring closure of all businesses except those providing essential services and items. Enforcement of the order was tightened progressively, resulting in significant improvement of compliance, while other interventions such as tracking of potential contacts and medical screening were underway, and the media continued to provide updates and general advices. The numbers of new and active Covid-19 cases started showing evident downtrends from mid-April, thus indicating the effectiveness of movement control and its compliance.
Conclusion: The article provides insight into crucial factors contributing to the success of movement control to effectively contain Covid-19, and highlights the need to prevent future upsurge through continuous monitoring and enforcement.
METHODS: The residential addresses of 3054 notified CHIKV cases in 2009-2010 were georeferenced onto a base map of Sarawak with spatial data of rivers and roads using R software. The spatiotemporal spread was determined and clusters were detected using the space-time scan statistic with SaTScan.
RESULTS: Overall CHIKV incidence was 127 per 100 000 population (range, 0-1125 within districts). The average speed of spread was 70.1 km/wk, with a peak of 228 cases/wk and the basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.1. The highest age-specific incidence rate was 228 per 100 000 in adults aged 50-54 y. Significantly more cases (79.4%) lived in rural areas compared with the general population (46.2%, p<0.0001). Five CHIKV clusters were detected. Likely spread was mostly by road, but a fifth of rural cases were spread by river travel.
CONCLUSIONS: CHIKV initially spread quickly in rural areas mainly via roads, with lesser involvement of urban areas. Delayed spread occurred via river networks to more isolated areas in the rural interior. Understanding the patterns and timings of arboviral outbreak spread may allow targeted vector control measures at key transport hubs or in large transport vehicles.
METHODS: Twenty semistructured qualitative interviews were conducted and analyzed through an inductive approach to analysis.
RESULTS: The findings were presented in three main categories which were coded: Reality vs. Conspiracy, Vaccination Concerns, and Public Worries. The majority believed that the Zika virus is a real problem and that authorities might be trying to hide the Zika cases in Pakistan. Moreover, they believed that health organizations are being incompetent by failing to take timely remedial measures to manage the Zika. However, 20% have an opposing view and believed that the Zika virus is a conspiracy against Pakistan from the West.
CONCLUSION: Overall, most participants were concerned about the lack of treatment and preventive methods and emphasized the need to create awareness among the public. It is observed that the participants' perceptions ranged from perceiving the Zika virus as real to as a conspiracy.