METHODS: We used the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (ARIMA) to forecast the number of cases in the upcoming 14 days and the Spearman correlation analysis to analyze the relationship between B.1.1.7 cases and meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and wind speed.
RESULTS: The results of the study showed the fitted ARIMA models forecasted there was an increase in the daily cases in three provinces. The total cases in three provinces would increase by 36% (West Java), 13.5% (South Sumatra), and 30% (East Kalimantan) as compared with actual cases until the end of 14 days later. The temperature, rainfall and sunshine factors were the main contributors for B.1.1.7 cases with each correlation coefficients; r = -0.230; p < 0.05, r = 0.211; p < 0.05 and r = -0.418; p < 0.01, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We recapitulated that this investigation was the first preliminary study to analyze a short-term forecast regarding COVID-19 and B.1.1.7 cases as well as to determine the associated meteorological factors that become primary contributors to the virus spread.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore public sentiments and emotions toward the LSSR and identify issues, fear, and reluctance to observe this restriction among the Indonesian public.
METHODS: This study adopts a sentiment analysis method with a supervised machine learning approach on COVID-19-related posts on selected media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube). The analysis was also performed on COVID-19-related news contained in more than 500 online news platforms recognized by the Indonesian Press Council. Social media posts and news originating from Indonesian online media between March 31 and May 31, 2020, were analyzed. Emotion analysis on Twitter platform was also performed to identify collective public emotions toward the LSSR.
RESULTS: The study found that positive sentiment surpasses other sentiment categories by 51.84% (n=1,002,947) of the total data (N=1,934,596) collected via the search engine. Negative sentiment was recorded at 35.51% (686,892/1,934,596) and neutral sentiment at 12.65% (244,757/1,934,596). The analysis of Twitter posts also showed that the majority of public have the emotion of "trust" toward the LSSR.
CONCLUSIONS: Public sentiment toward the LSSR appeared to be positive despite doubts on government consistency in executing the LSSR. The emotion analysis also concluded that the majority of people believe in LSSR as the best method to break the chain of COVID-19 transmission. Overall, Indonesians showed trust and expressed hope toward the government's ability to manage this current global health crisis and win against COVID-19.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between severe anxiety disorder and other factors with COVID-19 disease severity.
METHODS: This was cross-sectional study during March - November 2020. The diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 was done by using RT-PCR from throat swabs, based on WHO's interim guidelines. AD was measured using self-reporting Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7). All participants underwent, history taking, physical examinations, blood routine examination and chest radiography. Association between severe AD and other factors with COVID-19 disease severity were analyzed. Chi-square test (bivariate) and Logistic regression (multivariate) with the precision value of 95% was done and p-value less than 5% was considered significant.
RESULTS: Positive rate of Covid-19 patients was 43% (292 / 678). Among those 292 with Covid-19, 74 (25.3%) participants had severe disease. Multivariate analysis showed severe anxiety (OR 696.11; 95%CI: 78.54 to 6169.98; p<0.001), hypertension (OR 37.02; 95%CI: 4.49 to 305.39; p=0.001) and neutrophyl lymphocyte ratio (NLR) less than 2.89 (OR 0.15; 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.62; p=0.009).
CONCLUSION: Severe anxiety, hypertension and NLR less than 2.89 are potential independent risk factors for severe infection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).
METHODS: The antibacterial activity was evaluated both in vitro and in vivo. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of the extract was determined at a concentration of 0.625% by agar dilution assay. Later, the in vivo antibacterial activity was examined by the administration of 16mg of the extract daily for three consecutive days in a mouse model infected with S. typhimurium.
RESULTS: The bacterial loads of S. typhimurium in the ileum, liver, and spleen decreased after 24h of administration of the extract (p=0.00008, p=0.00084, and p=0.00003, respectively).
CONCLUSION: The ethanolic peel extract of C. hystrix shows antibacterial activity against S. typhimurium, indicating the potential of C. hystrix as an effective treatment for Salmonella spp. infection.