Evaporation is a key element for water resource management, hydrological modelling, and irrigation system designing. Monthly evaporation (Ep) was projected by deploying three machine learning (ML) models included Extreme Gradient Boosting, ElasticNet Linear Regression, and Long Short-Term Memory; and two empirical techniques namely Stephens-Stewart and Thornthwaite. The aim of this study is to develop a reliable generalised model to predict evaporation throughout Malaysia. In this context, monthly meteorological statistics from two weather stations in Malaysia were utilised for training and testing the models on the basis of climatic aspects such as maximum temperature, mean temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation for the period of 2000-2019. For every approach, multiple models were formulated by utilising various combinations of input parameters and other model factors. The performance of models was assessed by utilising standard statistical measures. The outcomes indicated that the three machine learning models formulated outclassed empirical models and could considerably enhance the precision of monthly Ep estimate even with the same combinations of inputs. In addition, the performance assessment showed that Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) offered the most precise monthly Ep estimations from all the studied models for both stations. The LSTM-10 model performance measures were (R2 = 0.970, MAE = 0.135, MSE = 0.027, RMSE = 0.166, RAE = 0.173, RSE = 0.029) for Alor Setar and (R2 = 0.986, MAE = 0.058, MSE = 0.005, RMSE = 0.074, RAE = 0.120, RSE = 0.013) for Kota Bharu.
Global concerns have been observed due to the outbreak and lockdown causal-based COVID-19, and hence, a global pandemic was announced by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020. The Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia acts to moderate the spread of COVID-19 through the enacted measures. Furthermore, massive industrial, agricultural activities and human encroachment were significantly reduced following the MCO guidelines. In this study, first, a reconnaissance survey was carried out on the effects of MCO on the health conditions of two urban rivers (i.e., Rivers of Klang and Penang) in Malaysia. Secondly, the effect of MCO lockdown on the water quality index (WQI) of a lake (Putrajaya Lake) in Malaysia is considered in this study. Finally, four machine learning algorithms have been investigated to predict WQI and the class in Putrajaya Lake. The main observations based on the analysis showed that noticeable enhancements of varying degrees in the WQI had occurred in the two investigated rivers. With regard to Putrajaya Lake, there is a significant increase in the WQI Class I, from 24% in February 2020 to 94% during the MCO month of March 2020. For WQI prediction, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) outperformed other models in predicting the changes in the index with a high level of accuracy. For sensitivity analysis results, it is shown that NH3-N and COD play vital rule and contributing significantly to predicting the class of WQI, followed by BOD, while the remaining three parameters (i.e. pH, DO, and TSS) exhibit a low level of importance.
High loads of suspended sediments in rivers are known to cause detrimental effects to potable water sources, river water quality, irrigation activities, and dam or reservoir operations. For this reason, the study of suspended sediment load (SSL) prediction is important for monitoring and damage mitigation purposes. The present study tests and develops machine learning (ML) models, based on the support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms, to predict SSL based on 11 different river data sets comprising of streamflow (SF) and SSL data obtained from the Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage. The main objective of the present study is to propose a single model that is capable of accurately predicting SSLs for any river data set within Peninsular Malaysia. The ANN3 model, based on the ANN algorithm and input scenario 3 (inputs consisting of current-day SF, previous-day SF, and previous-day SSL), is determined as the best model in the present study as it produced the best predictive performance for 5 out of 11 of the tested data sets and obtained the highest average RM with a score of 2.64 when compared to the other tested models, indicating that it has the highest reliability to produce relatively high-accuracy SSL predictions for different data sets. Therefore, the ANN3 model is proposed as a universal model for the prediction of SSL within Peninsular Malaysia.
There is a need to develop an accurate and reliable model for predicting suspended sediment load (SSL) because of its complexity and difficulty in practice. This is due to the fact that sediment transportation is extremely nonlinear and is directed by numerous parameters such as rainfall, sediment supply, and strength of flow. Thus, this study examined two scenarios to investigate the effectiveness of the artificial neural network (ANN) models and determine the sensitivity of the predictive accuracy of the model to specific input parameters. The first scenario proposed three advanced optimisers-whale algorithm (WA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and bat algorithm (BA)-for the optimisation of the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) in accurately predicting the suspended sediment load rate at the Goorganrood basin, Iran. In total, 5 different input combinations were examined in various lag days of up to 5 days to make a 1-day-ahead SSL prediction. Scenario 2 introduced a multi-objective (MO) optimisation algorithm that utilises the same inputs from scenario 1 as a way of determining the best combination of inputs. Results from scenario 1 revealed that high accuracy levels were achieved upon utilisation of a hybrid ANN-WA model over the ANN-BA with an RMSE value ranging from 1 to 6%. Furthermore, the ANN-WA model performed better than the ANN-PSO with an accuracy improvement value of 5-20%. Scenario 2 achieved the highest R2 when ANN-MOWA was introduced which shows that hybridisation of the multi-objective algorithm with WA and ANN model significantly improves the accuracy of ANN in predicting the daily suspended sediment load.
Evaporation is a crucial component to be established in agriculture management and water engineering. Evaporation prediction is thus an essential issue for modeling researchers. In this study, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) was used for predicting daily evaporation. MLP model is as one of the famous ANN models with multilayers for predicting different target variables. A new strategy was used to enhance the accuracy of the MLP model. Three multi-objective algorithms, namely, the multi-objective salp swarm algorithm (MOSSA), the multi-objective crow algorithm (MOCA), and the multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), were respectively and separately coupled to the MLP model for determining the model parameters, the best input combination, and the best activation function. In this study, three stations in Malaysia, namely, the Muadzam Shah (MS), the Kuala Terengganu (KT), and the Kuantan (KU), were selected for the prediction of the respective daily evaporation. The spacing (SP) and maximum spread (MS) indices were used to evaluate the quality of generated Pareto front (PF) by the algorithms. The lower SP and higher MS showed better PF for the models. It was observed that the MOSSA had higher MS and lower SP than the other algorithms, at all stations. The root means square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), percent bias (PBIAS), and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) quantifiers were used to compare the ability of the models with each other. The MLP-MOSSA had reduced RMSE compared to the MLP-MOCA, MLP-MOPSO, and MLP models by 18%, 25%, and 35%, respectively, at the MS station. The MAE of the MLP-MOSSA was 2.7%, 4.1%, and 26%, respectively lower than those of the MLP-MOCA, MLP-MOPSO, and MLP models at the KU station. The MLP-MOSSA showed lower MAE than the MLP-MOCA, MLP-MOPSO, and MLP models by 16%, 18%, and 19%, respectively, at the KT station. An uncertainty analysis was performed based on the input and parameter uncertainty. The results indicated that the MLP-MOSSA had the lowest uncertainty among the models. Also, the input uncertainty was lower than the parameter uncertainty. The general results indicated that the MLP-MOSSA had the high efficiency for predicting evaporation.
Due to excessive streamflow (SF), Peninsular Malaysia has historically experienced floods and droughts. Forecasting streamflow to mitigate municipal and environmental damage is therefore crucial. Streamflow prediction has been extensively demonstrated in the literature to estimate the continuous values of streamflow level. Prediction of continuous values of streamflow is not necessary in several applications and at the same time it is very challenging task because of uncertainty. A streamflow category prediction is more advantageous for addressing the uncertainty in numerical point forecasting, considering that its predictions are linked to a propensity to belong to the pre-defined classes. Here, we formulate streamflow prediction as a time series classification with discrete ranges of values, each representing a class to classify streamflow into five or ten, respectively, using machine learning approaches in various rivers in Malaysia. The findings reveal that several models, specifically LSTM, outperform others in predicting the following n-time steps of streamflow because LSTM is able to learn the mapping between streamflow time series of 2 or 3 days ahead more than support vector machine (SVM) and gradient boosting (GB). LSTM produces higher F1 score in various rivers (by 5% in Johor, 2% in Kelantan and Melaka and Selangor, 4% in Perlis) in 2 days ahead scenario. Furthermore, the ensemble stacking of the SVM and GB achieves high performance in terms of F1 score and quadratic weighted kappa. Ensemble stacking gives 3% higher F1 score in Perak river compared to SVM and gradient boosting.
Following the publication of the article it has come to the authors' attention that the first panel of Fig. 11 has been repeated with the second panel of Fig. 11.
Suspended sediment load (SSL) estimation is a required exercise in water resource management. This article proposes the use of hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models, for the prediction of SSL, based on previous SSL values. Different input scenarios of daily SSL were used to evaluate the capacity of the ANN-ant lion optimization (ALO), ANN-bat algorithm (BA) and ANN-particle swarm optimization (PSO). The Goorganrood basin in Iran was selected for this study. First, the lagged SSL data were used as the inputs to the models. Next, the rainfall and temperature data were used. Optimization algorithms were used to fine-tune the parameters of the ANN model. Three statistical indexes were used to evaluate the accuracy of the models: the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). An uncertainty analysis of the predicting models was performed to evaluate the capability of the hybrid ANN models. A comparison of models indicated that the ANN-ALO improved the RMSE accuracy of the ANN-BA and ANN-PSO models by 18% and 26%, respectively. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it can be surmised that the ANN-ALO has an acceptable degree of uncertainty in predicting daily SSL. Generally, the results indicate that the ANN-ALO is applicable for a variety of water resource management operations.
Iraq is facing a dire water crisis due to the decrease in water quantities flow in Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Due to population growth, several studies estimated the water shortage in 2035 to be 44 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM). Thus, Water Budget-Salt Balance Model (WBSBM) has been developed, applied and examined for the Euphrates River basin to compute the net water saving from Non-Conventional Water Resources (NCWRs). WBSBM includes 4-stages; the first is to identify the required data correspond to the conventional water resources in the study-area. The second stage is demonstrating the water-users activities. Thirdly, develop model through the proposed NCWR projects that reflect the required data. The final stage involves net water saving computation while applying all the NCWR projects simultaneously. The results obtained the optimal potential net water saving amount, which are 6.823 and 6.626 BCM/year in 2025 and 2035, respectively. In conclusion, the proposed WBSBM model has comprehensively examined different scenarios of utilizing NCWRs and has determined the optimal potential the net water saving amounts.
Cities are growing geographically in response to the enormous increase in urban population; consequently, comprehending growth and environmental changes is critical for long-term planning. Urbanization transforms naturally permeable surfaces into impermeable surfaces, causing an increase in urban land surface temperature, leading to the phenomenon known as urban heat islands. The urban heat islands are noticeable across Malaysia's rural communities and villages, particularly in Kuala Lumpur. These effects must be addressed to slow, if not halt, climate change and meet the Paris Agreement's 2030 goal. The study posits an application of thermal remote sensing utilizing a space-borne satellite-based technique to demonstrate urban evolution for urban heat island analysis and its relationship to land surface temperature. The urban heat island (UHI) was analyzed by converting infrared radiation into visible thermal images utilizing thermal imaging from remote sensing techniques. The heat island is validated by reference to the characteristics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which define the land surface temperature (LST) of distinct locations. Based on the digital information from the satellite, the highest temperature difference between urban and rural regions for a few chosen cities in 2013 varied from 10.8 to 25.5 °C, while in 2021, it ranged from 16.1 to 26.73 °C, highlighting crucial temperature changes. The results from ANOVA test has substantially strengthened the credibility of the significant temperature changes. Some notable reveals are as follows: The Sungai Batu area, due to its rapid development and industry growth, was more vulnerable to elevated urban heat due to reduced vegetation cover; therefore, higher relative vulnerability. Contrary, the Bukit Ketumbar area, which region lies in the woodland region, experienced the lowest, with urban heat islands reading from 2013 at -0.3044 and 0.0154 in 2021. It shows that despite having urban heat islands increase two-fold from 2013 to 2021, increasing the amount of vegetation coverage is a simple and effective way of reducing the urban heat island effect, as evidenced by the low urban heat islands in the Bukit Ketumbar woodland region. The study findings are critical for advising municipal officials and urban planners to decrease urban heat islands by investing in open green spaces.
In consideration of the distinct behavior of machine learning (ML) algorithms, six well-defined ML used were carried out in this study for predicting sea level on a day-to-day basis. Data compiled from 1985 to 2018 was utilized for training and testing the developed models. An assessment of the multiple statistics-driven regression algorithms resulted such that each tested location was associated with a particular preferred model. The following were the developed best models for their respective study areas: In Peninsular Malaysia, the interactions linear regression model was the best at Pulau Langkawi (RMSE = 19.066), the Matern 5/2 gaussian process regression model at Geting (RMSE = 49.891), and the trilayered artificial neural network at Pulau Pinang (RMSE = 20.026), while the linear regression model was the best at Sandakan in Sabah, East Malaysia (RMSE = 14.054). Other metrics, such as MAE and R-square, were also at their best values, each providing its best values, further substantiating the RMSE respectively, at each of the study areas. These empirical statistics (or metrics) also revealed that despite employing sea level as the sole parameter, results obtained were exceptional better when utilizing a 7-day lag, regardless of the model used. Notably, lag variables with less than a 7-day lag could degrade the model's accuracy in representing ground reality. The study emphasizes the importance of thorough training and testing of ML to aid decision-makers in developing mitigation actions for the climate change phenomena of sea level rise through reliable ML.
Here, we report that long-term stable and efficient organic solar cells (OSCs) can be obtained through the following strategies: i) combination of rapid-drying blade-coating deposition with an appropriate thermal annealing treatment to obtain an optimized morphology of the active layer; ii) insertion of interfacial layers to optimize the interfacial properties. The resulting devices based on poly[4,8-bis(5-(2-ethylhexyl)thiophen-2-yl)benzo[1,2-b;4,5-b']dithiophene-2,6-diyl-alt-(4-(2-ethylhexyl)-3-fluorothieno[3,4-b]thiophene-2-carboxylate-2,6-diyl)] (PBDTTT-EFT):[6,6]-phenyl C71 butyric acid methyl ester (PC71 BM) blend as the active layer exhibits a power conversion efficiency (PCE) up to 9.57 %, which represents the highest efficiency ever reported for blade-coated OSCs. Importantly, the conventional structure devices based on poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT):phenyl-C61 -butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) blend can retain approximately 65 % of their initial PCE for almost 2 years under operating conditions, which is the best result ever reported for long-term stable OSCs under operational conditions. More encouragingly, long-term stable large-area OSCs (active area=216 cm2 ) based on P3HT:PCBM blend are also demonstrated. Our findings represent an important step toward the development of large-area OSCs with high performance and long-term stability.