METHODS: HIV+ patients from the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD) and the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) meeting specific criteria were included. In these analyses Asian and Caucasian status were defined by cohort. Factors associated with a low CD4:CD8 ratio (cutoff <0.2) prior to ART commencement, and with achieving a normal CD4:CD8 ratio (>1) at 12 and 24 months post ART commencement were assessed using logistic regression.
RESULTS: There were 591 patients from AHOD and 2,620 patients from TAHOD who met the inclusion criteria. TAHOD patients had a significantly (P<0.001) lower odds of having a baseline (prior to ART initiation) CD4:CD8 ratio greater than 0.2. After 12 months of ART, AHOD patients were more than twice as likely to achieve a normal CD4:CD8 ratio compared to TAHOD patients (15% versus 6%). However, after adjustment for confounding factors there was no significant difference between cohorts in the odds of achieving a CD4:CD8 ratio >1 (P=0.475).
CONCLUSIONS: We found a significantly lower CD4:CD8 ratio prior to commencing ART in TAHOD compared to AHOD even after adjusting for confounders. However, after adjustment, there was no significant difference between the cohorts in odds of achieving normal ratio. Baseline CD4+ and CD8+ counts seem to be the main driver for this difference between these two populations.
METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation.
RESULTS: Of 3703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years, and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure, and increasing HDL.
CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any aging population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.