Atmospheric air temperature is the most crucial metrological parameter. Despite its influence on multiple fields such as hydrology, the environment, irrigation, and agriculture, this parameter describes climate change and global warming quite well. Thus, accurate and timely air temperature forecasting is essential because it provides more important information that can be relied on for future planning. In this study, four Data-Driven Approaches, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Regression Tree (RT), Quantile Regression Tree (QRT), ARIMA, Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), have been applied to forecast short-, and mid-term air temperature (daily, and weekly) over North America under continental climatic conditions. The time-series data is relatively long (2000 to 2021), 70% of the data are used for model calibration (2000 to 2015), and the rest are used for validation. The autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions have been used to select the best input combination for the forecasting models. The quality of predicting models is evaluated using several statistical measures and graphical comparisons. For daily scale, the SVR has generated more accurate estimates than other models, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE = 3.592°C), Correlation Coefficient (R = 0.964), Mean Absolute Error (MAE = 2.745°C), and Thiels' U-statistics (U = 0.127). Besides, the study found that both RT and SVR performed very well in predicting weekly temperature. This study discovered that the duration of the employed data and its dispersion and volatility from month to month substantially influence the predictive models' efficacy. Furthermore, the second scenario is conducted using the randomization method to divide the data into training and testing phases. The study found the performance of the models in the second scenario to be much better than the first one, indicating that climate change affects the temperature pattern of the studied station. The findings offered technical support for generating high-resolution daily and weekly temperature forecasts using Data-Driven Methodologies.
Recently, there is an upsurge in flood emergencies in Nigeria, in which their frequencies and impacts are expected to exacerbate in the future due to land-use/land cover (LULC) and climate change stressors. The separate and combined forces of these stressors on the Gongola river basin is feebly understood and the probable future impacts are not clear. Accordingly, this study uses a process-based watershed modelling approach - the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) (i) to understand the basin's current and future hydrological fluxes and (ii) to quantify the effectiveness of five management options as adaptation measures for the impacts of the stressors. The ensemble means of the three models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for generating future climate scenarios, considering three distinct radiative forcing peculiar to the study area. Also, the historical and future LULC (developed from the hybrid of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model) are used to produce the LULC scenarios for the basin. The effective calibration, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are used for optimising the parameters of the model and the validated result implies a plausible model with efficiency of up to 75 %. Consequently, the results of individual impacts of the stressors yield amplification of the peak flows, with more profound impacts from climate stressor than the LULC. Therefore, the climate impact may trigger a marked peak discharge that is 48 % higher as compared to the historical peak flows which are equivalent to 10,000-year flood event. Whilst the combine impacts may further amplify this value by 27 % depending on the scenario. The proposed management interventions such as planned reforestation and reservoir at Dindima should attenuate the disastrous peak discharges by almost 36 %. Furthermore, the land management option should promote the carbon-sequestering project of the Paris agreement ratified by Nigeria. While the reservoir would serve secondary functions of energy production; employment opportunities, aside other social aspects. These measures are therefore expected to mitigate feasibly the negative impacts anticipated from the stressors and the approach can be employed in other river basins in Africa confronted with similar challenges.
Short-term streamflow prediction is essential for managing flood early warning and water resources systems. Although numerical models are widely used for this purpose, they require various types of data and experience to operate the model and often tedious calibration processes. Under the digital revolution, the application of data-driven approaches to predict streamflow has increased in recent decades. In this work, multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models with three different input combinations are developed and assessed for multi-step ahead short-term streamflow predictions, using 14 years of hydrological datasets from the Kulim River catchment, Malaysia. Introducing more precedent streamflow events as predictor improves the performance of these data-driven models, especially in predicting peak streamflow during the high-flow event. The RF model (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE): 0.599-0.962) outperforms the MLR model (NSE: 0.584-0.963) in terms of overall prediction accuracy. However, with the increasing lead-time length, the models' overall prediction accuracy on the arrival time and magnitude of peak streamflow decrease. These findings demonstrate the potential of decision tree-based models, such as RF, for short-term streamflow prediction and offer insights into enhancing the accuracy of these data-driven models.
The management of suspended solids and associated contaminants in rivers requires knowledge of sediment sources. In-situ sampling can only describe the integrated impact of the upstream sources. Empirical models that use surface reflectance from satellite images to estimate total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations can be used to supplement measurements and provide spatially continuous maps. However, there are few examples, especially in narrow, shallow and hydrologically dynamic rivers found in mountainous areas. A case study of the Didipio catchment in Philippines was used to address these issues. Four 5-m resolution RapidEye images, from between the years 2014 and 2016, and near-simultaneous ground measurements of TSS concentrations were used to develop a power law model that approximates the relationship between TSS and reflectance for each of four spectral bands. A second dataset using two 2-m resolution Pleiades-1A and a third using a 6-m resolution SPOT-6 image along with ground-based measurements, were consistent with the model when using the red band data. Using that model, encompassing data from all three datasets, gave an R2 value of 65% and a root mean square error of 519mgL-1. A linear relationship between reflectance and TSS exists from 1mgL-1 to approximately 500mgL-1. In contrast, for TSS measurements between 500mgL-1 and 3580mgL-1 reflectance increases at a generally lower and more variable rate. The results were not sensitive to changing the pixel location within the vicinity of the ground sampling location. The model was used to generate a continuous map of TSS concentration within the catchment. Further ground-based measurements including TSS concentrations that are higher than 3580mgL-1 would allow the model to be developed and applied more confidently over the full relevant range of TSS.
Rainfalls data have been broadly used in researches including in hydrological and meteorological areas. Two common ways in extracting observations from hourly rainfalls data are the window-based analysis (WBA) and storm-event analysis (SEA) approach. However, the differences in the qualitative and quantitative properties of both methods are still vaguely discussed. The aim of studying these dissimilarities is to understand the effects of each approach in modelling and analysis. The qualitative difference is due to the way the two analyses define the accumulated rainfalls for observations which are referred to as rainfall and storm depths, respectively. The repetitiveness of rainfall depths provide nested structure while the storm depths are considered independent. The quantitative comparisons include their statistical and scaling properties that are linked by the self-similarity concept from simple scaling characteristics. If self-similarity concept
holds, then the rainfall or storm depths follow simple scaling and the analysis would be simplified. The rainfall depths showed clearer simple scaling characteristics compared to the storm depths. Though the storm depths do not yield self-similarity for a large range of storm duration but the characteristics of simple scaling can be observed for a reduced range of the considered duration. In general, the context of the research and the region of the time interval and duration will be an important aspects to consider in choosing which method is best to use for analyzing the data.
Identification of the true statistical distributions for various hydrologic data sets is a major problem facing engineers. The four-parameter kappa distribution is a combination of the established distribution including the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), Generalised Logistic (GL), Generalised Pareto (GP) and the Gumbel distribution were considered in this study. The main objective of this study was to develop the method of LQ-moments for the kappa distribution. The performance of the LQ-moments was compared with L-moments through eight problems using published data sets. The results showed that the performance of both methods, the LQ-moments and L-moments worked equally well.
Knowledge related to distributions of rainfall amounts are of great importance for the design of water related structures. The greater problem facing hydrologists and engineers identifying the best distribution form for regional data. The main goal of the study is to perform regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls selected each year among daily rainfalls measured over stations in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur by using the L-moment method. Several distributions were taken into account in this study which include two-parameter normal (NOM), lognormal (LN2), three-parameter lognormal (LN3), logistic (LOG), generalized logistic (GLO), extreme value type I (EV1), generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution. The most suitable distribution was determined according to the mean absolute deviation index (MADI), mean square deviation index (MSDI) and the L-moment ratio diagram. The result of this study showed that the GLO distribution is the most suitable distribution to fit the data of maximum daily rainfalls for stations in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur.
This paper highlights a preliminary study on the potential of a tipping flush gate to be used in an open storm drain to remove sediment. The investigation was carried out by using a plasboard model of the tipping flush gate installed in a rectangular flume. A steady flow experiment was carried out to determine the discharge coefficients and also the outflow relationship of the tipping flush gate. The velocity produced by the gate at various distances downstream of the gate during flushing operation was measured using a flowmeter and the velocity at all the points was higher than the recommended self-cleansing design available in the literature. A preliminary experiment on the efficiency of flushing was conducted using uniform sediment with d50 sizes of 0.81, 1.53 and 4.78 mm. Results generally showed that the number of flushes required to totally remove the sediment from the initial position by a distance of 1 m increased by an average of 1.50 times as the sediment deposit bed thickness doubled. An equation relating the number of flushes required to totally remove the sediment bed for 1 m with the sediment bed deposit thickness was also developed for the current study.
This study developed 0.05° × 0.05° land-only datasets of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for the period 1981-2017. Existing coarse-resolution datasets were evaluated to find the best dataset for the study area to use as a base of the new datasets. The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) global temperature dataset was found to be the best. The CPC data were interpolated to a spatial resolution of 0.05° latitude/longitude using linear interpolation technique considering the flat topography of the study area. The robust kernel density distribution mapping method was used to correct the bias using observations, and WorldClim v.2 temperature climatology was used to adjust the spatial variability in temperature. The validation of CNE datasets using probability density function skill score and hot and cold extremes tail skill scores showed remarkable improvement in replicating the spatial and temporal variability in observed temperature. Because CNE datasets are the best available high-resolution estimate of daily temperatures, they will be beneficial for climatic and hydrological studies.
Rainfall intensity is the main input variable in various hydrological analysis and modeling. Unfortunately, the quality of rainfall data is often poor and reliable data records are available at coarse intervals such as yearly, monthly and daily. Short interval rainfall records are scarce because of high cost and low reliability of the measurement and the monitoring systems. One way to solve this problem is by disaggregating the coarse intervals to generate the short one using the stochastic method. This paper describes the use of the Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) model. The method was used to disaggregate 10 years of daily data for generating hourly data from 5 rainfall stations in Kelantan as representative area affected by monsoon period and 5 rainfall stations in Damansara affected by inter-monsoon period. The models were evaluated on their ability to reproduce standard and extreme rainfall model statistics derived from the historical record over disaggregation simulation results. The disaggregation of daily to hourly rainfall produced monthly and daily means and variances that closely match the historical records. However, for the disaggregation of daily to hourly rainfall, the standard deviation values are lower than the historical ones. Despite the marked differences in the standard deviation, both data series exhibit similar patterns and the model adequately preserve the trends of all the properties used in evaluating its performances.
Over the years, sedimentation has posed a great danger to the storage capacity of hydropower reservoirs. Good understanding of the transport system and hydrological processes in the dam is very crucial to its sustainability. Under optimal functionality, the Shiroro dam in Northern Nigeria can generate ∼600 MW, which is ideally sufficient to power about 404,000 household. Unfortunately, there have not been reliable monitoring measures to assess yield in the upstream, where sediments are sourced into the dam. In this study, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the hydrological processes, the sediment transport mechanism and sediment yield between 1990 and 2018 in Kaduna watershed (32,124 km2) located upstream of the dam. The model was calibrated and validated using observed flow and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data. Performance evaluation of the model was achieved statistically using Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), coefficient of determination (r2) and percentage of observed data (p-factor). SWAT model evaluation using NS (0.71), r2 (0.80) and p-factors of 0.86 suggests that the model performed satisfactorily for streamflow and sediment yield predictions. The model identified the threshold depth of water (GWQMN.gw) and base flow (ALPHA_BF.gw) as the most sensitive parameters for streamflow and sediment yield estimation in the watershed. Our finding showed that an estimated suspended sediment yield of about 84.1 t/ha/yr was deposited within the period under study. Basins 67, 71 and 62 have erosion prone area with the highest sediment values of 79.4, 75.1 and 73.8 t/h respectively. Best management practice is highly recommended for the dam sustainability, because of the proximity of erosion-prone basins to the dam.
Fine resolution (hourly rainfall) of rainfall series for various hydrological systems is widely used. However, observed hourly rainfall records may lack in the quality of data and resulting difficulties to apply it. The utilization of Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) is proposed to overcome this limitation. The calibration of this model is regarded as a difficult task due to the existence of intensive estimation of parameters. Global optimization algorithms, named as artificial bee colony (ABC) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) were introduced to overcome this limitation. The issues and ability of each optimization in the calibration procedure were addressed. The results showed that the BLRP model with ABC was able to reproduce well for the rainfall characteristics at hourly and daily rainfall aggregation, similar to PSO. However, the fitted BLRP model with PSO was able to reproduce the rainfall extremes better as compared to ABC.
Alternative climate products, such as gauge-based gridded data, ground-based weather radar, satellite precipitation and climate reanalysis products, are being increasingly applied for hydrological modelling. This review aims to summarize the studies that have evaluated alternative climate products within Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) applications and to propose future research directions, primarily for modelers who wish to study limited gauge, ungauged or transnational river basins. A total of 126 articles have been identified since 2004, the majority of which have been published within the last five years. About 58% of the studies were conducted in Asia, mostly in China and India, while another 14% were reported for United States studies. CFSR and TRMM are the most popular applied products in SWAT modelling, followed by PERSIANN, CMADS, APHRODITE, CHIRPS and NEXRAD. Generally, the performance of climate products is region-dependent; e.g., CFSR typically performs well in the United States and South America, but performs more poorly for Asia, Africa and mountainous basin conditions, as compared to other products. In contrast, the CMADS, TRMM, APRHODITE and NEXRAD have shown the strongest capability for supporting SWAT modelling in these regions. However, most of the evaluated products contain only precipitation input; therefore, merging reliable precipitation with CFSR-temperature is recommended for hydro-climatic modelling. Future research directions include: (1) examination of optimal combinations; e.g. CHIRPS-precipitation and CFSR-temperature, for simulating streamflow in different types of river basins; (2) development of a standardized validation scheme which incorporates the commonly accepted products, statistical approaches and temperature variables; (3) further evaluation of existing climate data products to accurately capture extreme events, pattern and indices as well as WGEN statistics; (4) improvement of climate data in terms of averaging approach, bias correction and additional factors or indices integration; and (5) bias correction of CMIP6 climate projections using the optimal climate data combinations.
Proper integrated management of a dam reservoir requires that all components of the water resource system be known. One of these components is the daily reservoir inflow which is the subject matter of this study, i.e. to establish predictions of what is coming in the next rainfall-runoff process over a catchment. The transformation of rainfall into runoff is an extremely complex, dynamic, and more of a non-linear process. The available six-year average daily rainfall data across the Sembrong dam catchment were computed using the well-known Theissen’s polygon method. Daily reservoir inflow data were extracted by applying the water balance model to the Sembrong dam reservoir. Modelling of relationship between rainfall and reservoir inflow data was done using feed-forward back-propagation neural networks. The final selected model has one hidden layer with 11 neurons in the hidden layer. The selected model was applied for an independent data series testing. Results in relation to specific climatic and hydrologic properties of a small tropical catchment suggested that the model is suitable to be used in forecasting the next day’s reservoir inflow. The efficiencies of the model Abtained indicated the validity of using the neural network for modelling reservoir inflow series.
As a crucial demand in urban areas, flood risk management has been considered by researchers and decision makers around the world. In this case, hydrological modelling that simulates rainfall-runoff process plays a significant role. This paper quantified the roles of three main parameters in river basin hydrological response, namely, rainfall event duration, rainfall event ARI (magnitude) and land-use development condition. The case study area of this research was Sungai Kayu Ara basin which is located in the western part of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A total of twenty seven scenario were defined for this research, including three different rainfall event durations (60, 120 and 360 minutes), three different ARIs (20, 50 and 100 years) and in three different land-use conditions (existing, intermediate and ultimate). The results of this research indicate that rainfall event duration, rainfall event ARI (magnitude) and land-use development condition have considerable effects of the surface runoff hydrographs in terms of peak discharge and volume.
The selection of curve number to represent watersheds with similar land use and land cover is often subjective and ambiguous. Watershed with several soil groups further complicates curve number selection process while wrong curve number selection often produces unrealistic runoff estimates. The 1954 simplified Soil Conservation Services (SCS) runoff model over-predicted runoff with significant amount and further magnified runoff prediction error toward higher rainfall depths in this study. The model was statistically insignificant with the rejection of two null hypotheses and paved the way for regional model calibration study. This paper proposes a new direct curve number derivation technique from the given rainfall-runoff conditions under the guide of inferential statistics. The technique offers a swift and economical solution to improve the runoff prediction ability of the SCS runoff model with statistically significant results. A new rainfall-runoff model was developed with calibration according to the regional hydrological conditions. It out-performed the runoff prediction of the simplified SCS runoff model and the asymptotic runoff model. The derived curve number = 89 at alpha = 0.01 level. The technique can be adopted to predict flash flood and forecast urban runoff.
This paper aims to estimate the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters and predicts the T-year return levels of extreme rainfall events using the Partial Duration Series (PDS) method based on the hourly rainfall data of five stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In particular, the GPD parameters are estimated using five methods namely the method of Moments (MOM), the probability weighted moments (PWM), the L-moments (LMOM), the Trimmed L-moments (TLMOM) and the Maximum Likelihood (ML) and the performance of the T-year return level of each estimation method is analyzed based on the RMSE measure obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, we suggest the weighted average model, a model which assigns the inverse variance of several methods as weights, to estimate the T-year return level. This paper contributes to the hydrological literatures in terms of three main elements. Firstly, we suggest the use
of hourly rainfall data as an alternative to provide a more detailed and valuable information for the analysis of extreme rainfall events. Secondly, this study applies five methods of parametric approach for estimating the GPD parameters and predicting the T-year return level. Finally, in this study we propose the weighted average model, a model that assigns the inverse variance of several methods as weights, for the estimation of the T-year return level.
Litter decomposition is vital for carbon and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, and this process has now
been thoroughly demonstrated to be regulated by various mechanisms. The total environment has been continuously
changing in recent decades, especially in high-latitude regions; these alterations, however, profoundly contribute to the
decomposition process, but a comprehensive recognition has not available. Here we reviewed the empirical observations
and current knowledge regarding how hydrological leaching and freeze-thaw events modulate early decomposition of
plant litter. Leaching contributes a considerable percentage of mass loss and carbon and nutrient release in early stage of
decomposition, but the magnitudes are different between species levels depending on the chemical traits. Frequent freezing
and thawing events could positively influence decomposition rate in cold biomes but also hamper soil decomposer and
there is no general and predictable pattern has been emerged. Further experiments should be manipulated to estimate
how the altered freezing and thawing effect on carbon and nutrient release from plant litter to better understanding the
changing environment on litter decomposition.
In Australia, droughts are recurring events that tremendously affect environmental, agricultural and socio-economic activities. Southern Queensland is one of the most drought-prone regions in Australia. Consequently, a comprehensive drought vulnerability mapping is essential to generate a drought vulnerability map that can help develop and implement drought mitigation strategies. The study aimed to prepare a comprehensive drought vulnerability map that combines drought categories using geospatial techniques and to assess the spatial extent of the vulnerability of droughts in southern Queensland. A total of 14 drought-influencing criteria were selected for three drought categories, specifically, meteorological, hydrological and agricultural. The specific criteria spatial layers were prepared and weighted using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Individual categories of drought vulnerability maps were prepared from their specific indices. Finally, the overall drought vulnerability map was generated by combining the indices using spatial analysis. Results revealed that approximately 79.60% of the southern Queensland region is moderately to extremely vulnerable to drought. The findings of this study were validated successfully through the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC) approach using previous historical drought records. Results can be helpful for decision makers to develop and apply proactive drought mitigation strategies.
Efficacious operation for dam and reservoir system could guarantee not only a defenselessness policy against natural hazard but also identify rule to meet the water demand. Successful operation of dam and reservoir systems to ensure optimal use of water resources could be unattainable without accurate and reliable simulation models. According to the highly stochastic nature of hydrologic parameters, developing accurate predictive model that efficiently mimic such a complex pattern is an increasing domain of research. During the last two decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been significantly utilized for attaining a robust modeling to handle different stochastic hydrological parameters. AI techniques have also shown considerable progress in finding optimal rules for reservoir operation. This review research explores the history of developing AI in reservoir inflow forecasting and prediction of evaporation from a reservoir as the major components of the reservoir simulation. In addition, critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of integrated AI simulation methods with optimization methods has been reported. Future research on the potential of utilizing new innovative methods based AI techniques for reservoir simulation and optimization models have also been discussed. Finally, proposal for the new mathematical procedure to accomplish the realistic evaluation of the whole optimization model performance (reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices) has been recommended.