Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 49 in total

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  1. Ameratunga SN
    J Adolesc Health, 2017 10;61(4):405-406.
    PMID: 28941482 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2017.07.014
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  2. James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, et al.
    Inj Prev, 2020 10;26(Supp 1):i96-i114.
    PMID: 32332142 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043494
    BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

    METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

    FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

    INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  3. Song Y, Cheng W, Li H, Liu X
    Cancer Med, 2022 Nov;11(22):4310-4320.
    PMID: 35475595 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4783
    We aim to report the latest incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and provide predictions to 2035. We use estimates from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 to analyze the incidence, mortality, and DALYs. All the estimates were shown as counts and age-standardized rates (ASR). In 2019, there were more than 176,501 (156,046 to 199,917) incidence cases, with ASRs of 2.1 (1.9 to 2.4). Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) accounted for 71,610 (65,442 to 77,625) deaths, with ASRs of 0.9 (0.8 to 0.9). NPC was also responsible for 2.34 million (2,139,753 to 2,536,657) DALYs, with ASRs of 28.0 (25.7 to 30.4). The count of all the new cases increased from 1990 to 2019. At the regional level, the highest age-standardized incidence rates were found in East Asia, the highest age-standardized death and DALY rates were shown in Southeast Asia. At the national level, the age-standardized incidence rates were highest in Singapore, and the age-standardized death and DALY rates were highest in Malaysia. The total numbers and rates of all the estimates were significantly higher among males than females across most of the age groups. The considerable burden of NPC was attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde. A total of six GBD regions and 88 countries are projected to experience an increase in NPC ASRs between 2019 and 2035, respectively. Despite the current decline in age-standardized mortality and DALY rates globally, the age-standardized incidence rate has increased from 1990 to 2019, and continues to increase between 2020 and 2035, indicating that nasopharyngeal cancer remains a major health challenge worldwide. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors, especially among males in East Asia.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  4. GBD 2019 Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Collaborators
    Lancet Healthy Longev, 2022 Nov;3(11):e754-e776.
    PMID: 36273485 DOI: 10.1016/S2666-7568(22)00213-6
    BACKGROUND: Benign prostatic hyperplasia is a common urological disease affecting older men worldwide, but comprehensive data about the global, regional, and national burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia and its trends over time are scarce. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated global trends in, and prevalence of, benign prostatic hyperplasia and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia, in 21 regions and 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.

    METHODS: This study was conducted with GBD 2019 analytical and modelling strategies. Primary prevalence data came from claims from three countries and from hospital inpatient encounters from 45 locations. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR version 2.1, was used to estimate the age-specific, location-specific, and year-specific prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Age-standardised prevalence was calculated by the direct method using the GBD reference population. Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia were estimated by multiplying the disability weight by the symptomatic proportion of the prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Because we did not estimate years of life lost associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) equalled YLDs. The final estimates were compared across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated as the 25th and 975th of 1000 ordered draws from a bootstrap distribution.

    FINDINGS: Globally, there were 94·0 million (95% UI 73·2 to 118) prevalent cases of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 2019, compared with 51·1 million (43·1 to 69·3) cases in 2000. The age-standardised prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia was 2480 (1940 to 3090) per 100 000 people. Although the global number of prevalent cases increased by 70·5% (68·6 to 72·7) between 2000 and 2019, the global age-standardised prevalence remained stable (-0·770% [-1·56 to 0·0912]). The age-standardised prevalence in 2019 ranged from 6480 (5130 to 8080) per 100 000 in eastern Europe to 987 (732 to 1320) per 100 000 in north Africa and the Middle East. All five SDI quintiles observed an increase in the absolute DALY burden between 2000 and 2019. The most rapid increases in the absolute DALY burden were seen in the middle SDI quintile (94·7% [91·8 to 97·6]), the low-middle SDI quintile (77·3% [74·1 to 81·2]), and the low SDI quintile (77·7% [72·9 to 83·2]). Between 2000 and 2019, age-standardised DALY rates changed less, but the three lower SDI quintiles (low, low-middle, and middle) saw small increases, and the two higher SDI quintiles (high and high-middle SDI) saw small decreases.

    INTERPRETATION: The absolute burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia is rising at an alarming rate in most of the world, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that are currently undergoing rapid demographic and epidemiological changes. As more people are living longer worldwide, the absolute burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia is expected to continue to rise in the coming years, highlighting the importance of monitoring and planning for future health system strain.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    TRANSLATION: For the Amharic translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  5. Global Burden of Disease 2019 Cancer Collaboration, Kocarnik JM, Compton K, Dean FE, Fu W, Gaw BL, et al.
    JAMA Oncol, 2022 Mar 01;8(3):420-444.
    PMID: 34967848 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.6987
    IMPORTANCE: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

    FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  6. GBD 2021 Anaemia Collaborators
    Lancet Haematol, 2023 Sep;10(9):e713-e734.
    PMID: 37536353 DOI: 10.1016/S2352-3026(23)00160-6
    BACKGROUND: Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories.

    METHODS: We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

    FINDINGS: In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89-1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8-28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48-1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1-75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1-612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2-123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4-52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1-85·2) of anaemia YLDs.

    INTERPRETATION: Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  7. GBD 2019 Meningitis Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators
    Lancet Neurol, 2023 Aug;22(8):685-711.
    PMID: 37479374 DOI: 10.1016/S1474-4422(23)00195-3
    BACKGROUND: Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

    METHODS: We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

    FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

    INTERPRETATION: Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  8. Johnson CD, Haldeman S, Nordin M, Chou R, Côté P, Hurwitz EL, et al.
    Eur Spine J, 2018 09;27(Suppl 6):786-795.
    PMID: 30151808 DOI: 10.1007/s00586-018-5723-9
    PURPOSE: The purpose of this report is to describe the Global Spine Care Initiative (GSCI) contributors, disclosures, and methods for reporting transparency on the development of the recommendations.

    METHODS: World Spine Care convened the GSCI to develop an evidence-based, practical, and sustainable healthcare model for spinal care. The initiative aims to improve the management, prevention, and public health for spine-related disorders worldwide; thus, global representation was essential. A series of meetings established the initiative's mission and goals. Electronic surveys collected contributorship and demographic information, and experiences with spinal conditions to better understand perceptions and potential biases that were contributing to the model of care.

    RESULTS: Sixty-eight clinicians and scientists participated in the deliberations and are authors of one or more of the GSCI articles. Of these experts, 57 reported providing spine care in 34 countries, (i.e., low-, middle-, and high-income countries, as well as underserved communities in high-income countries.) The majority reported personally experiencing or having a close family member with one or more spinal concerns including: spine-related trauma or injury, spinal problems that required emergency or surgical intervention, spinal pain referred from non-spine sources, spinal deformity, spinal pathology or disease, neurological problems, and/or mild, moderate, or severe back or neck pain. There were no substantial reported conflicts of interest.

    CONCLUSION: The GSCI participants have broad professional experience and wide international distribution with no discipline dominating the deliberations. The GSCI believes this set of papers has the potential to inform and improve spine care globally. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  9. Haldeman S, Nordin M, Chou R, Côté P, Hurwitz EL, Johnson CD, et al.
    Eur Spine J, 2018 09;27(Suppl 6):776-785.
    PMID: 30151809 DOI: 10.1007/s00586-018-5722-x
    PURPOSE: Spinal disorders, including back and neck pain, are major causes of disability, economic hardship, and morbidity, especially in underserved communities and low- and middle-income countries. Currently, there is no model of care to address this issue. This paper provides an overview of the papers from the Global Spine Care Initiative (GSCI), which was convened to develop an evidence-based, practical, and sustainable, spinal healthcare model for communities around the world with various levels of resources.

    METHODS: Leading spine clinicians and scientists around the world were invited to participate. The interprofessional, international team consisted of 68 members from 24 countries, representing most disciplines that study or care for patients with spinal symptoms, including family physicians, spine surgeons, rheumatologists, chiropractors, physical therapists, epidemiologists, research methodologists, and other stakeholders.

    RESULTS: Literature reviews on the burden of spinal disorders and six categories of evidence-based interventions for spinal disorders (assessment, public health, psychosocial, noninvasive, invasive, and the management of osteoporosis) were completed. In addition, participants developed a stratification system for surgical intervention, a classification system for spinal disorders, an evidence-based care pathway, and lists of resources and recommendations to implement the GSCI model of care.

    CONCLUSION: The GSCI proposes an evidence-based model that is consistent with recent calls for action to reduce the global burden of spinal disorders. The model requires testing to determine feasibility. If it proves to be implementable, this model holds great promise to reduce the tremendous global burden of spinal disorders. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  10. Liu M, Gan H, Lin Y, Lin R, Xue M, Zhang T, et al.
    Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2022 Nov 08;19(22).
    PMID: 36429381 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192214663
    BACKGROUND: The credible materials about the burden of asthma in China when compared to other countries in the group of twenty (G20) remain unavailable.

    OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN: Following the popular analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study, the age-, sex-, country-specific prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of asthma in China were analyzed. Meanwhile, the comparison in trends between China and other countries in the G20 was also evaluated.

    RESULTS: In 2019, asthma was the 8th leading cause of the DALYs' burden of 369 diseases in China. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of asthma in China decreased by 14% and 51%, respectively; further, the decline rate of DALYs was much higher than the global average (-51%: -43%). It is worth noting that the overall population age-standardized DALYs rate of asthma in China was the lowest in the G20 during 2019 (102.81, 95% UI: (72.30,147.42)/100,000). Moreover, the age-standardized asthma prevalence rate peaks in both childhood (178.14, 95% UI: (90.50, 329.01)/100,000) and the elderly (541.80, 95% UI: (397.79, 679.92)/100,000). Moreover, throughout the study, subjects in the 5 to 9 years old interval were a constant focus of our attention.

    CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of asthma has varied greatly by gender and age over the past 30 years. In contrast to the increasing burden in most other G20 countries, the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma shows a significant decreasing trend in China, however, the age-standardized DALYs rate shows a fluctuating change, and has even shown a rebound trend in recent years.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  11. James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, et al.
    Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i125-i153.
    PMID: 32839249 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043531
    BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

    METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

    RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

    CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  12. Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, et al.
    Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i12-i26.
    PMID: 31915273 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043296
    BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

    METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

    RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

    CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  13. James SL, Lucchesi LR, Bisignano C, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, et al.
    Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i46-i56.
    PMID: 31915274 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043302
    BACKGROUND: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.

    METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.

    RESULTS: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.

    CONCLUSIONS: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  14. Shin YH, Hwang J, Kwon R, Lee SW, Kim MS, GBD 2019 Allergic Disorders Collaborators, et al.
    Allergy, 2023 Aug;78(8):2232-2254.
    PMID: 37431853 DOI: 10.1111/all.15807
    BACKGROUND: Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors.

    METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described.

    RESULTS: In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224-309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165-178 million] total cases of AD globally; age-standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899-4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192-2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: -27.2 to -20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8-4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age-specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5-9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for individuals with higher SDI; however, mortality and DALYs rates of individuals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14-5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615-122,841] asthma deaths.

    CONCLUSIONS: Asthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high-SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  15. GBD 2019 Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer Collaborators, Cunha ARD, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, et al.
    JAMA Oncol, 2023 Oct 01;9(10):1401-1416.
    PMID: 37676656 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2960
    IMPORTANCE: Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

    OBJECTIVE: To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

    FINDINGS: In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease*
  16. GBD 2019 Hepatitis B Collaborators
    Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol, 2022 Sep;7(9):796-829.
    PMID: 35738290 DOI: 10.1016/S2468-1253(22)00124-8
    BACKGROUND: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

    METHODS: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

    FINDINGS: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [-5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [-5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

    INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease
  17. Kerr PG, Tran HTB, Ha Phan HA, Liew A, Hooi LS, Johnson DW, et al.
    Kidney Int, 2018 09;94(3):465-470.
    PMID: 30045813 DOI: 10.1016/j.kint.2018.05.014
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease/economics; Global Burden of Disease/trends; Global Burden of Disease/statistics & numerical data*
  18. Lee SWH, Chan EMC, Lai YK
    Sci Rep, 2017 08 11;7(1):7984.
    PMID: 28801563 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-06628-8
    Benign prostatic hyperplasia is a common non-malignant condition among older men, but the epidemiology is poorly characterised. We summarised and determined the global prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. A systematic search on PubMed, EMBASE and CENTRAL was performed up until 31st July 2016. Studies that described the epidemiology of benign prostatic hyperplasia were included and cumulative plots of prevalence estimates were calculated. A total of 31 prevalence rate estimates from 25 countries were identified. The combined prevalence estimates showed that the lifetime prevalence of BPH was 26.2% (95% CI: 22.8-29.6%). We found that there was an increasing prevalence of BPH with age. However, we found no significant difference between (a) rural, urban or mixed sites, (b) different countries, (c) respondent representativeness. (d) sample size or (e) study quality. We also found no significant change in the prevalence over the past 20 years. While there is substantial variation between sites estimates, results suggest that nearly 1 in 4 men will suffer from BPH over their lifetime. The study revealed there are significant gaps in knowledge, which provides opportunities for future research to further enrich the epidemiological landscape with data.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease
  19. Olusanya BO, Gladstone M, Wright SM, Hadders-Algra M, Boo NY, Nair MKC, et al.
    Front Public Health, 2022;10:894546.
    PMID: 36091559 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.894546
    OBJECTIVE: Children with developmental disabilities are associated with a high risk of poor school enrollment and educational attainment without timely and appropriate support. Epidemiological data on cerebral palsy and associated comorbidities required for policy intervention in global health are lacking. This paper set out to report the best available evidence on the global and regional prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) and developmental intellectual disability and the associated "years lived with disability" (YLDs) among children under 5 years of age in 2019.

    METHODS: We analyzed the collaborative 2019 Rehabilitation Database of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study and World Health Organization for neurological and mental disorders available for 204 countries and territories. Point prevalence and YLDs with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) are presented.

    RESULTS: Globally, 8.1 million (7.1-9.2) or 1.2% of children under 5 years are estimated to have CP with 16.1 million (11.5-21.0) or 2.4% having intellectual disability. Over 98% resided in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). CP and intellectual disability accounted for 6.5% and 4.5% of the aggregate YLDs from all causes of adverse health outcomes respectively. African Region recorded the highest prevalence of CP (1.6%) while South-East Asia Region had the highest prevalence of intellectual disability. The top 10 countries accounted for 57.2% of the global prevalence of CP and 62.0% of the global prevalence of intellectual disability.

    CONCLUSION: Based on this Database, CP and intellectual disability are highly prevalent and associated with substantial YLDs among children under 5 years worldwide. Universal early detection and support services are warranted, particularly in LMICs to optimize school readiness for these children toward inclusive education as envisioned by the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease
  20. Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Fitzmaurice C, Abate D, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, et al.
    JAMA Oncol, 2019 Dec 01;5(12):1749-1768.
    PMID: 31560378 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996
    IMPORTANCE: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

    OBJECTIVE: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

    FINDINGS: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Burden of Disease
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