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  1. Masrani AS, Nik Husain NR, Musa KI, Yasin AS
    Biomed Res Int, 2021;2021:3540964.
    PMID: 34734083 DOI: 10.1155/2021/3540964
    Introduction: Dengue, a vector-borne viral illness, shows worldwide widening spatial distribution beyond its point of origination, namely, the tropical belt. The persistent hyperendemicity in Malaysia has resulted in the formation of the dengue early warning system. However, weather variables are yet to be fully utilized for prevention and control activities, particularly in east-coast peninsular Malaysia where limited studies have been conducted. We aim to provide a time-based estimate of possible dengue incidence increase following weather-related changes, thereby highlighting potential dengue outbreaks.

    Method: All serologically confirmed dengue patients in Kelantan, a northeastern state in Malaysia, registered in the eDengue system with an onset of disease from January 2016 to December 2018, were included in the study with the exclusion of duplicate entry. Using a generalized additive model, climate data collected from the Kota Bharu weather station (latitude 6°10'N, longitude 102°18'E) was analysed with dengue data.

    Result: A cyclical pattern of dengue cases was observed with annual peaks coinciding with the intermonsoon period. Our analysis reveals that maximum temperature, mean temperature, rainfall, and wind speed have a significant nonlinear effect on dengue cases in Kelantan. Our model can explain approximately 8.2% of dengue incidence variabilities.

    Conclusion: Weather variables affect nearly 10% of the dengue incidences in Northeast Malaysia, thereby making it a relevant variable to be included in a dengue early warning system. Interventions such as vector control activities targeting the intermonsoon period are recommended.

  2. Masrani AS, Nik Husain NR, Musa KI, Yasin AS
    J Prev Med Public Health, 2022 Jan;55(1):80-87.
    PMID: 35135051 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.21.461
    OBJECTIVES: Dengue remains hyperendemic in Malaysia despite extensive vector control activities. With dynamic changes in land use, urbanisation and population movement, periodic updates on dengue transmission patterns are crucial to ensure the implementation of effective control strategies. We sought to assess shifts in the trends and spatial patterns of dengue in Kelantan, a north-eastern state of Malaysia (5°15'N 102°0'E).

    METHODS: This study incorporated data from the national dengue monitoring system (eDengue system). Confirmed dengue cases registered in Kelantan with disease onset between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018 were included in the study. Yearly changes in dengue incidence were mapped by using ArcGIS. Hotspot analysis was performed using Getis-Ord Gi to track changes in the trends of dengue spatial clustering.

    RESULTS: A total of 10 645 dengue cases were recorded in Kelantan between 2016 and 2018, with an average of 10 dengue cases reported daily (standard deviation, 11.02). Areas with persistently high dengue incidence were seen mainly in the coastal region for the 3-year period. However, the hotspots shifted over time with a gradual dispersion of hotspots to their adjacent districts.

    CONCLUSIONS: A notable shift in the spatial patterns of dengue was observed. We were able to glimpse the shift of dengue from an urban to peri-urban disease with the possible effect of a state-wide population movement that affects dengue transmission.

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