While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. We used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH4 emissions.
Fine roots constitute a significant component of the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest ecosystems but are much less studied than aboveground NPP. Comparisons across sites and regions are also hampered by inconsistent methodologies, especially in tropical areas. Here, we present a novel dataset of fine root biomass, productivity, residence time, and allocation in tropical old-growth rainforest sites worldwide, measured using consistent methods, and examine how these variables are related to consistently determined soil and climatic characteristics. Our pantropical dataset spans intensive monitoring plots in lowland (wet, semi-deciduous, and deciduous) and montane tropical forests in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia (n = 47). Large spatial variation in fine root dynamics was observed across montane and lowland forest types. In lowland forests, we found a strong positive linear relationship between fine root productivity and sand content, this relationship was even stronger when we considered the fractional allocation of total NPP to fine roots, demonstrating that understanding allocation adds explanatory power to understanding fine root productivity and total NPP. Fine root residence time was a function of multiple factors: soil sand content, soil pH, and maximum water deficit, with longest residence times in acidic, sandy, and water-stressed soils. In tropical montane forests, on the other hand, a different set of relationships prevailed, highlighting the very different nature of montane and lowland forest biomes. Root productivity was a strong positive linear function of mean annual temperature, root residence time was a strong positive function of soil nitrogen content in montane forests, and lastly decreasing soil P content increased allocation of productivity to fine roots. In contrast to the lowlands, environmental conditions were a better predictor for fine root productivity than for fractional allocation of total NPP to fine roots, suggesting that root productivity is a particularly strong driver of NPP allocation in tropical mountain regions.
The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1,961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass, and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either aboveground biomass or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct demographic compositions of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the demographic composition of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure and function.
Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce coral cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified "bright spots," where corals have recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 to 2018 along with 14 environmental and temperature metrics in a hierarchical Bayesian model to identify conditions that contribute to present-day coral cover. We also identified locations with significantly higher (i.e., "bright spots") and lower coral cover (i.e., "dark spots") than regionally expected. In addition, using 4-km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, we projected coral cover on reefs for the years 2050 and 2100. Coral cover on modern reefs was positively associated with historically high maximum sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and negatively associated with high contemporary SSTs, tropical-cyclone frequencies, and human-population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, we projected relative decreases in coral cover of >40% on most reefs globally but projected less decline on reefs in Indonesia, Malaysia, the central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, which should be focal localities for multinational networks of protected areas.
Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha-1 year-1 ; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36-5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha-1 year-1 ; CI 5.57-12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage-related AGB losses rather than by mortality-related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand-level AGB stocks by 4% (1%-17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%-57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage-related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%-80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.
There are limited data for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from smallholder agricultural systems in tropical peatlands, with data for non-CO2 emissions from human-influenced tropical peatlands particularly scarce. The aim of this study was to quantify soil CH4 and N2 O fluxes from smallholder agricultural systems on tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia and assess their environmental controls. The study was carried out in four regions in Malaysia and Indonesia. CH4 and N2 O fluxes and environmental parameters were measured in cropland, oil palm plantation, tree plantation and forest. Annual CH4 emissions (in kg CH4 ha-1 year-1 ) were: 70.7 ± 29.5, 2.1 ± 1.2, 2.1 ± 0.6 and 6.2 ± 1.9 at the forest, tree plantation, oil palm and cropland land-use classes, respectively. Annual N2 O emissions (in kg N2 O ha-1 year-1 ) were: 6.5 ± 2.8, 3.2 ± 1.2, 21.9 ± 11.4 and 33.6 ± 7.3 in the same order as above, respectively. Annual CH4 emissions were strongly determined by water table depth (WTD) and increased exponentially when annual WTD was above -25 cm. In contrast, annual N2 O emissions were strongly correlated with mean total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in soil water, following a sigmoidal relationship, up to an apparent threshold of 10 mg N L-1 beyond which TDN seemingly ceased to be limiting for N2 O production. The new emissions data for CH4 and N2 O presented here should help to develop more robust country level 'emission factors' for the quantification of national GHG inventory reporting. The impact of TDN on N2 O emissions suggests that soil nutrient status strongly impacts emissions, and therefore, policies which reduce N-fertilisation inputs might contribute to emissions mitigation from agricultural peat landscapes. However, the most important policy intervention for reducing emissions is one that reduces the conversion of peat swamp forest to agriculture on peatlands in the first place.
Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.
Mangroves play a globally significant role in carbon capture and storage, known as blue carbon ecosystems. Yet, there are fundamental biogeochemical processes of mangrove blue carbon formation that are inadequately understood, such as the mechanisms by which mangrove afforestation regulates the microbial-driven transfer of carbon from leaf to below-ground blue carbon pool. In this study, we addressed this knowledge gap by investigating: (1) the mangrove leaf characteristics using state-of-the-art FT-ICR-MS; (2) the microbial biomass and their transformation patterns of assimilated plant-carbon; and (3) the degradation potentials of plant-derived carbon in soils of an introduced (Sonneratia apetala) and a native mangrove (Kandelia obovata). We found that biogeochemical cycling took entirely different pathways for S. apetala and K. obovata. Blue carbon accumulation and the proportion of plant-carbon for native mangroves were high, with microbes (dominated by K-strategists) allocating the assimilated-carbon to starch and sucrose metabolism. Conversely, microbes with S. apetala adopted an r-strategy and increased protein- and nucleotide-biosynthetic potentials. These divergent biogeochemical pathways were related to leaf characteristics, with S. apetala leaves characterized by lower molecular-weight, C:N ratio, and lignin content than K. obovata. Moreover, anaerobic-degradation potentials for lignin were high in old-aged soils, but the overall degradation potentials of plant carbon were age-independent, explaining that S. apetala age had no significant influences on the contribution of plant-carbon to blue carbon. We propose that for introduced mangroves, newly fallen leaves release nutrient-rich organic matter that favors growth of r-strategists, which rapidly consume carbon to fuel growth, increasing the proportion of microbial-carbon to blue carbon. In contrast, lignin-rich native mangrove leaves shape K-strategist-dominated microbial communities, which grow slowly and store assimilated-carbon in cells, ultimately promoting the contribution of plant-carbon to the remarkable accumulation of blue carbon. Our study provides new insights into the molecular mechanisms of microbial community responses during reforestation in mangrove ecosystems.
Blooms of microalgal red tides and macroalgae (e.g., green and golden tides caused by Ulva and Sargassum) have caused widespread problems around China in recent years, but there is uncertainty around what triggers these blooms and how they interact. Here, we use 30 years of monitoring data to help answer these questions, focusing on the four main species of microalgae Prorocentrum donghaiense, Karenia mikimotoi, Noctiluca scintillans, and Skeletonema costatum) associated with red tides in the region. The frequency of red tides increased from 1991 to 2003 and then decreased until 2020, with S. costatum red tides exhibiting the highest rate of decrease. Green tides started to occur around China in 1999 and the frequency of green tides has since been on the increase. Golden tides were first reported to occur around China in 2012. The frequency of macroalgal blooms has a negative linear relationship with the frequency and coverage of red tides around China, and a positive correlation with total nitrogen and phosphorus loads as well as with atmospheric CO2 and sea surface temperature (SST). Increased outbreaks of macroalgal blooms are very likely due to worsening levels of eutrophication, combined with rising CO2 and SST, which contribute to the reduced frequency of red tides. The increasing grazing rate of microzooplankton also results in the decline in areas affected by red tides. This study shows a clear shift of algal blooms from microalgae to macroalgae around China over the past 30 years driven by the combination of eutrophication, climate change, and grazing stress, indicating a fundamental change in coastal systems in the region.