METHODS: Data were analysed from patients in a multinational longitudinal cohort with known anti-dsDNA results from 2013 to 2021. Patients were categorized based on their anti-dsDNA results as persistently negative, fluctuating or persistently positive. Cox regression models were used to examine longitudinal associations of anti-dsDNA results with flare.

RESULTS: Data from 37 582 visits of 3484 patients were analysed. Of the patients 1029 (29.5%) had persistently positive anti-dsDNA and 1195 (34.3%) had fluctuating results. Anti-dsDNA expressed as a ratio to the normal cut-off was associated with the risk of subsequent flare, including in the persistently positive cohort (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.56; 95% CI: 1.30, 1.87; P 3. Both increases and decreases in anti-dsDNA more than 2-fold compared with the previous visit were associated with increased risk of flare in the fluctuating cohort (adjusted HR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.65; P = 0.008) and the persistently positive cohort (adjusted HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.71; P = 0.009).

METHODS AND RESULTS: The 'COlchicine for the Prevention of Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation' (COP-AF) trial is an international, blinded, randomized trial that compares colchicine to placebo in patients aged at least 55 years and undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery with general anesthesia. Exclusion criteria include a history of AF and a contraindication to colchicine (eg, severe renal dysfunction). Oral colchicine at a dose of 0.5 mg or matching placebo is given within 4 hours before surgery. Thereafter, patients receive colchicine 0.5 mg or placebo twice daily for a total of 10 days. The 2 independent co-primary outcomes are clinically important perioperative AF (including atrial flutter) and MINS during 14 days of follow-up. The main safety outcomes are sepsis or infection and non-infectious diarrhea. We aim to enroll 3,200 patients from approximately 40 sites across 11 countries to have at least 80% power for the independent evaluation of the 2 co-primary outcomes. The COP-AF main results are expected in 2023.

METHODS: We included patients from a multicentre longitudinal cohort (recruited between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2019) with active SLE (SLEDAI-2K ≥6) coinciding with an abnormality in at least one of 13 routine laboratory tests, at a visit designated as baseline. At 12 months, we analysed associations between thresholds of improvement in individual laboratory test results, measured as continuous variables, and five clinical outcomes using logistic regression. Primary outcomes were damage accrual and lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS), and secondary outcomes were modified SLE responder index (mSRI), physician global assessment (PGA) improvement of at least 0·3, and flare.

FINDINGS: We included 1525 patients (1415 [93%] women and 110 [7%] men, 1328 [87%] Asian ethnicity) in separate subsets for each laboratory test. The strongest associations with LLDAS and damage protection were seen with improvements in proteinuria (complete response: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 62·48, 95% CI 18·79-208·31 for LLDAS, OR 0·22, 95% CI 0·10-0·49 for damage accrual), albumin (complete response: adjusted OR 6·46, 95% CI 2·20-18·98 for LLDAS, OR 0·42, 95% CI 0·20-1·22 for damage accrual), haemoglobin (complete response: adjusted OR 1·97, 95% CI 1·09-3·53 for LLDAS, OR 0·33, 95% CI 0·15-0·71 for damage accrual), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (complete response: adjusted OR 1·71, 95% CI 1·10-2·67 for LLDAS, OR 0·53, 95% CI 0·30-0·94 for damage accrual), and platelets (complete response: adjusted OR 4·82, 95% CI 1·54-15·07 for LLDAS, OR 0·49, 95% CI 0·20-1·19 for damage accrual). Improvement in serological tests were mainly associated with PGA and mSRI. White cell and lymphocyte count improvements were least predictive.

INTERPRETATION: Improvements in several routine laboratory tests correspond with clinical outcomes in SLE over 12 months. Tests with the strongest associations were discrepant with laboratory tests included in current trial endpoints, and associations were observed across a range of improvement thresholds including incomplete resolution. These findings suggest the need to revise the use of laboratory test results in SLE trial endpoints.

METHODS: In this prospective, multinational, longitudinal cohort study, we used data from patients with SLE in the Asia Pacific Lupus Collaboration cohort collected between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2020. Eligible patients were adults (aged ≥18 years) who met either the 1997 American College of Rheumatology modified classification criteria for SLE or the 2012 Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics classification criteria. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and LLDAS, remission, and variations of remission with lower glucocorticoid thresholds were the primary exposure variables. Survival analyses were used to examine longitudinal associations between these endpoints and risk of mortality. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03138941.

FINDINGS: Among a total of 4106 patients in the cohort, 3811 (92·8%) patients were included in the final analysis (median follow-up 2·8 years [IQR 1·0-5·3]; 3509 [92·1%] women and 302 [7·9%] men), of whom 80 died during the observation period (crude mortality rate 6·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). LLDAS was attained at least once in 43 (53·8%) of 80 participants who died and in 3035 (81·3%) of 3731 participants who were alive at the end of the study (p<0·0001); 22 (27·5%) participants who died versus 1966 (52·7%) who were alive at the end of the study attained LLDAS for at least 50% of observed time (p<0·0001). Remission was attained by 32 (40·0%) of 80 who died and in 2403 (64·4%) of 3731 participants who were alive at the end of the study (p<0·0001); 14 (17·5%) participants who died versus 1389 (37·2%) who were alive at the end of the study attained remission for at least 50% of observed time (p<0·0001). LLDAS for at least 50% of observed time (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·31-0·85]; p=0·010) and remission for at least 50% of observed time (0·52 [0·29-0·93]; p=0·027) were associated with reduced risk of mortality. Modifying the remission glucocorticoid threshold (<5·0 mg/day prednisolone) was more protective against mortality than current remission definitions (0·31 [0·12-0·77]; p=0·012), and glucocorticoid-free remission was the most protective (0·13 [0·02-0·96]; p=0·046).

INTERPRETATION: LLDAS significantly reduced the risk of mortality in patients with SLE. Remission did not further reduce the risk of mortality compared with LLDAS, unless lower glucocorticoid thresholds were used.

METHODS: This multinational cohort study was conducted at 25 sites across 13 Asia-Pacific countries. We included adult patients aged 18 years or older with stable SLE who were receiving routine clinical care, had two or more visits and had attained stable disease at one or more visits. We categorised stable disease into: LLDAS (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K] score ≤4, Physician Global Assessment [PGA] ≤1, and prednisolone ≤7·5 mg/day); Definitions of Remission in SLE (DORIS) remission (clinical SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day); or complete remission on therapy (SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day). Stable disease categories were mutually exclusive. Tapering was defined as any decrease in dose of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy (mycophenolate mofetil, calcineurin inhibitors, azathioprine, leflunomide, or methotrexate). Using multivariable generalised estimating equations, we compared flares (SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index) at the subsequent visit after drug tapering. We used generalised estimating equations and Cox proportional hazard models to compare tapering attempts that had begun in LLDAS, remission, and complete remission.

FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2020, 4106 patients were recruited to the cohort, 3002 (73·1%) of whom were included in our analysis. 2769 (92·2%) participants were female, 233 (7·8%) were male, and 2636 (88·1%) of 2993 with ethnicity data available were Asian. The median age was 39·5 years (IQR 29·0-50·0). There were 14 808 patient visits for patients in LLDAS, or remission or complete remission, of which 13 140 (88·7%) entered the final multivariable model after excluding missing data. Among the 9863 visits at which patients continued the same therapy, 1121 (11·4%) flared at the next visit, of which 221 (19·7%) were severe flares. Of the 3277 visits at which a patient received a tapering of therapy, 557 (17·0%) flared at the next visit, of which 120 (21·5%) were severe flares. Tapering was associated with higher odds of flare compared with continuing the same therapy (odds ratio [OR] 1·24 [95% CI 1·10-1·39]; p=0·0005). Of 2095 continuous tapering attempts, 860 (41·1%) were initiated in LLDAS, 596 (28·4%) in remission, and 639 (30·5%) in complete remission. Tapering initiated in LLDAS (OR 1·37 [95% CI 1·03-1·81]; p=0·029) or remission (1·45 [1·08-1·94]; p=0·013) had higher odds of flare in 1 year compared with complete remission. Tapering in LLDAS (hazard ratio 1·24 [95% CI 1·04-1·48]; p=0·016) or remission (1·30 [1·08-1·56]; p=0·0054) had a significantly shorter time to first flare than tapering initiated in complete remission. Attaining sustained LLDAS, remission, or complete remission for at least 6 months just before the time of taper was associated with lower odds of flare at next visit, flares in 1 year, and longer time to flare.

INTERPRETATION: Tapering of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy in patients with stable SLE was associated with excess flares. Our findings suggest that drug tapering should be carefully considered, weighing the risks and benefits, and is best exercised in complete (clinical and serological) remission and after maintaining stable disease for at least 6 months.

METHODS: We used data from a large multicenter, longitudinal SLE cohort in which patients received standard of care. The first visit with active disease (defined as SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K] score ≥6) was designated as baseline, and mSRI attainment (defined as a reduction in SLEDAI-2K ≥4 points with no worsening in physician global assessment ≥0.3 points) was determined at annual intervals from baseline up to 5 years. Associations between mSRI attainment and outcomes including disease activity, glucocorticoid dose, flare, damage accrual, Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), and remission were studied.

METHODS: Data from a 12-country longitudinal SLE cohort, collected prospectively between 2013 and 2020, were analysed. SLE patients with mSACQ defined as the state with serological activity (increased anti-dsDNA and/or hypocomplementemia) but without clinical activity, treated with ≤7.5 mg/day of prednisolone-equivalent GCs and not-considering duration, were studied. The risk of subsequent flare or damage accrual per 1 mg decrease of prednisolone was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models while adjusting for confounders. Observation periods were 2 years and censored if each event occurred.

RESULTS: Data from 1850 mSACQ patients were analysed: 742, 271 and 180 patients experienced overall flare, severe flare and damage accrual, respectively. Tapering GCs by 1 mg/day of prednisolone was not associated with increased risk of overall or severe flare: adjusted HRs 1.02 (95% CI, 0.99 to 1.05) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.004), respectively. Antimalarial use was associated with decreased flare risk. Tapering GCs was associated with decreased risk of damage accrual (adjusted HR 0.96, 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.99) in the patients whose initial prednisolone dosages were >5 mg/day.

METHODS: Data from a 13-country longitudinal SLE cohort were collected prospectively between 2013 and 2020. An inception cohort was defined based on disease duration < 1 year at enrollment. Patient characteristics between inception and noninception cohorts were compared. Survival analyses were performed to examine the association between LLDAS attainment and damage accrual and flare.

RESULTS: Of the total 4106 patients, 680 (16.6%) were recruited within 1 year of SLE diagnosis (inception cohort). Compared to the noninception cohort, inception cohort patients were significantly younger, had higher disease activity, and used more glucocorticoids, but had less organ damage at enrollment. Significantly fewer inception cohort patients were in LLDAS at enrollment than the noninception cohort (29.6% vs 52.3%, P < 0.001), but three-quarters of both groups achieved LLDAS at least once during follow-up. Limiting analysis only to patients not in LLDAS at enrollment, inception cohort patients were 60% more likely to attain LLDAS (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% CI 1.16-1.61, P < 0.001) than noninception cohort patients and attained LLDAS significantly faster. LLDAS attainment was significantly protective against flare in both the inception and noninception cohorts. A total of 88 (13.6%) inception cohort patients accrued organ damage during a median 2.2 years of follow-up.

METHODS: Patients aged 18 years or older with SLE were followed up from May 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2020 in a prospective, multinational, longitudinal cohort study. Patients were recruited from 25 centres in 12 countries. Multi-failure time-to-event analyses were used to assess the effect of sustained LLDAS on irreversible damage accrual (primary outcome; measured with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index) and flare (key secondary outcome; measured with the SELENA Flare Index), with dose exposure and threshold effects studied. Sustained LLDAS or remission were defined as two or more consecutive visits over at least 3 months in the respective state. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03138941.

FINDINGS: 3449 patients were followed up for a median of 2·8 years (IQR 1·1-5·6), totalling 37 662 visits. 3180 (92·2%) patients were women, and 3031 (87·9%) were of Asian ethnicity. 2506 (72·7%) patients had sustained LLDAS at least once. Any duration of sustained LLDAS or remission longer than 3 months was associated with reduced damage accrual (LLDAS: hazard ratio 0·60 [95% CI 0·51-0·71], p<0·0001; remission: 0·66 [0·57-0·76], p<0·0001) and flare (LLDAS: 0·56 [0·51-0·63], p<0·0001; remission: 0·66 [0·60-0·73], p<0·0001), and increasing durations of sustained LLDAS corresponded to increased protective associations. Sustained DORIS remission or steroid-free remission were less attainable than LLDAS.

INTERPRETATION: We observed significant protective associations of LLDAS and remission against damage accrual and flare, establish a threshold of 3 months sustained LLDAS or remission as protective, and demonstrate deepening protection with longer durations of sustained LLDAS or remission.

METHODS: Demographic, clinical and outcomes data, collected prospectively from a multinational cohort between 2013 and 2020, were analysed. Disease activity was assessed using SLEDAI-2K. HDAS was defined as SLEDAI-2K ≥ 10. Patients' first visit with SLEDAI-2K ≥ 10 was assigned as baseline. Survival analyses were performed to examine the associations between cumulative and sustained LLDAS and REM attainment in HDAS patients and subsequent organ damage accrual and flare.

RESULTS: 1,029 HDAS patients with a median study duration of 2.7 years [IQR: 1.0, 4.8] were studied. LLDAS and REM were attained at least once by 71% (LLDAS-ever, n = 726) and 41% (REM-ever, n = 418) of patients. Approximately one-fifth of patients attained ≥50% cumulative time in LLDAS or REM. 37% (n = 385) of patients attained ≥3months of sustained LLDAS, with progressively lower proportions of patients attaining longer periods of sustained LLDAS. Lower proportions of patients attained sustained REM. Attainment of cumulative and sustained LLDAS or REM provided significant protection against damage accrual and flare in HDAS patients. Sustained periods of LLDAS and REM were difficult to achieve and therefore a more stringent target, but provided the most protection against damage accrual or flare.

METHODS: Flare was defined using the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment version of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI flare index), and PAD was defined as an SLEDAI-2K score of ≥4, excluding serology only, on two or more consecutive visits with a maximum six-month interval. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop predictive models for flare and PAD, which were tested in an independent validation subset.

RESULTS: Among 3,811 patients over 2.8 (interquartile range 1.0-5.3) years of follow-up, 2,142 (56.2%) experienced flare and 1,786 (46.9%) had PAD, with 368 (9.7%) experiencing PAD but not flare. The most common flare features were nephritis and arthritis, whereas PAD was most commonly characterized by renal or mucocutaneous activity. After adjusting for prednisone dose and use of antimalarials and immunosuppressants, low gross domestic product in country of residence, smoking, arthritis, nephritis, and low complement levels were predictive for flare, whereas being in a low disease activity state for ≥50% of follow-up time (LLDAS50) was a protective factor. Renal activity and higher time-adjusted mean SLEDAI-2K were predictive of PAD, whereas LLDAS50 was protective. The models developed gave 72.1% and 83.8% correct classification of flare and PAD, respectively, in the validation cohort.

METHODS: We analysed data from 2930 patients with SLE across 13 countries, collected over 38 754 clinic visits between 2013 and 2020. Clinic visit records were converted to panel data with 1-year intervals. The time-adjusted mean disease activity, termed AMS, was calculated. The yearly change in [Formula: see text], denoted as [Formula: see text], was regressed onto [Formula: see text] and other potential predictors using random-effects models. Some variables were split into a person-mean component to assess between-patient differences and a demeaned component to assess within-patient variability.

RESULTS: Overall, variability in SLE disease activity exhibited stabilisation over time. A significant inverse relationship emerged between a patient's disease activity in a given year and variability in disease activity in the subsequent year: a 1-point increase in person-mean disease activity was associated with a 0.27-point decrease (95% CI -0.29 to -0.26, p<0.001) in subsequent variability. Additionally, a 1-point increase in within-patient disease activity variability was associated with a 0.56-point decrease (95% CI -0.57 to -0.55, p<0.001) in the subsequent year. Furthermore, each 1-point increase in the annual average time-adjusted mean Physician Global Assessment was associated with a 0.08-point decrease (90% CI -0.13 to -0.03, p=0.002) in disease activity variability for the following year. Prednisolone dose and the duration of activity in specific organ systems exhibited negative and positive associations, respectively, with disease activity variability in the subsequent year. Patients from less affluent countries displayed greater disease activity variability compared with those from wealthier nations.

METHODS: Data from the Asia-Pacific Lupus Collaboration cohort were analyzed (2013-2021). Mucocutaneous activity (MC-A) items were rash, alopecia, and mucosal ulcers; were defined by the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000; and were persistent if present for at least six months. Mucocutaneous damage (MC-D) items were chronic skin ulceration, scarring alopecia, and skin/panniculum scarring and were defined by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index. HRQoL was measured by 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) surveys. Multivariate logistic generalized estimating equation models were used to determine correlates of MC-A at each visit. Time-varying covariate survival models were used to determine predictors of MC-D.