MyMedR

Displaying all 4 publications

Abstract:

Sort:

Fulltext Male-female differences in the number of reported incident dengue fever cases in six Asian countries

Anker M, Arima Y

Western Pac Surveill Response J, 2011 Apr;2(2):17-23.
PMID: 23908884 DOI: 10.5365/WPSAR.2011.2.1.002

INTRODUCTION: Demographic factors, such as age and sex, are associated with the likelihood of exposure to Aedes aegypti, the vector for dengue. However, dengue data disaggregated by both sex and age are not routinely reported or analysed by national surveillance systems. This study analysed the reported number of incident dengue cases by age and sex for six countries in Asia.
METHODS: Data for the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Singapore and Sri Lanka were obtained from DengueNet; the number of male and female dengue cases was available for four age groups (
Fulltext Epidemiologic update of dengue in the Western Pacific Region, 2010

Arima Y, Matsui T

Western Pac Surveill Response J, 2011 Apr;2(2):4-8.
PMID: 23908882 DOI: 10.5365/WPSAR.2011.2.2.005

Dengue is an emerging vectorborne infectious disease that is a major public health concern in the Asia Pacific region. Official dengue surveillance data for 2010 provided by ministries of health were summarized as part of routine activities of the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific. Based on reported data, dengue has continued to show an increasing trend in the Western Pacific Region. In 2010, countries and areas reported a total of 353 907 dengue cases, of which 1073 died, for a case fatality ratio of 0.30%. More than 1000 cases were reported each from Australia (North Queensland), Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Viet Nam. With the exception of Australia, the number of reported cases in 2010 was greater than that reported in 2009 for these countries. The elevated number of cases reported in 2010 in some countries, such as the Philippines, is likely due to several factors, such as enhanced reporting and continued epidemic activity. However, increases in reported number of cases in other areas, such as Singapore and Malaysia, appear to indicate sustained epidemic activity in those countries. The continued epidemic dengue activity in the Region highlights the need for timely and routine regional sharing of information.
Fulltext Epidemiologic update on the dengue situation in the Western Pacific Region, 2011

Arima Y, Edelstein ZR, Han HK, Matsui T

Western Pac Surveill Response J, 2013 May 14;4(2):47-54.
PMID: 24015372 DOI: 10.5365/WPSAR.2012.3.4.019

Dengue is an emerging vectorborne infectious disease that is a major public health concern in the Asia and the Pacific. Official dengue surveillance data for 2011 provided by ministries of health were summarized as part of routine activities of the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific. Based on officially reported surveillance data, dengue continued to show sustained activity in the Western Pacific Region. In 2011, Member States reported a total of 244,855 cases of which 839 died for a case fatality rate of 0.34%. More than 1000 cases were reported each from Cambodia, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Marshall Islands, Singapore and Viet Nam. Cambodia, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands reported higher activity relative to 2010. There continues to be great variability among the dengue-endemic countries and areas in the Region in the number of cases and serotype distribution. The continued high notification rate and complex dengue epidemiology in the Region highlight the need for information-sharing on a routine and timely basis.
Fulltext Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Arima Y, Fujimoto T, Shimizu H, Rogier van Doorn H, et al.

J R Soc Interface, 2018 09 12;15(146).
PMID: 30209044 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0507

Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease have been documented in Japan since 1963. This disease is primarily caused by the two closely related serotypes of Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Here, we analyse Japanese virologic and syndromic surveillance time-series data from 1982 to 2015. As in some other countries in the Asia Pacific region, EV-A71 in Japan has a 3 year cyclical component, whereas CV-A16 is predominantly annual. We observe empirical signatures of an inhibitory interaction between the serotypes; virologic lines of evidence suggest they may indeed interact immunologically. We fit the time series to mechanistic epidemiological models: as a first-order effect, we find the data consistent with single-serotype susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics. We then extend the modelling to incorporate an inhibitory interaction between serotypes. Our results suggest the existence of a transient cross-protection and possible asymmetry in its strength such that CV-A16 serves as a stronger forcing on EV-A71. Allowing for asymmetry yields accurate out-of-sample predictions and the directionality of this effect is consistent with the virologic literature. Confirmation of these hypothesized interactions would have important implications for understanding enterovirus epidemiology and informing vaccine development. Our results highlight the general implication that even subtle interactions could have qualitative impacts on epidemic dynamics and predictability.