Complex engineering systems are usually designed to last for many years. Such systems will face many uncertainties in the future. Hence the design and deployment of these systems should not be based on a single scenario, but should incorporate flexibility. Flexibility can be incorporated in system architectures in the form of options that can be exercised in the future when new information is available. Incorporating flexibility comes, however, at a cost. To evaluate if this cost is worth the investment a real options analysis can be carried out. This approach is demonstrated through analysis of a case study of a previously developed static system-of-systems for maritime domain protection in the Straits of Malacca. This article presents a framework for dynamic strategic planning of engineering systems using real options analysis and demonstrates that flexibility adds considerable value over a static design. In addition to this it is shown that Monte Carlo analysis and genetic algorithms can be successfully combined to find solutions in a case with a very large number of possible futures and system designs.
Water quality in Singapore's coastal area was evaluated with microbial indicators, pathogenic vibrios, chemical tracers and physico-chemical parameters. Sampling sites were grouped into two clusters (coastal sites at (i) northern and (ii) southern part of Singapore). The coastal sites located at northern part of Singapore along the Johor Straits exhibited greater pollution. Principal component analysis revealed that sampling sites at Johor Straits have greater loading on carbamazepine, while turbidity poses greater influence on sampling sites at Singapore Straits. Detection of pathogenic vibrios was also more prominent at Johor Straits than the Singapore Straits. This study examined the spatial variations in Singapore's coastal water quality and provided the baseline information for health risk assessment and future pollution management.