Time series modelling and forecasting plays an important role in various domains. The objective of this paper is to construct a simple average ensemble method to forecast the number of cases for infectious diseases like dengue and typhoid and compare it by applying models for forecasting. In this paper we have also evaluated the correlation between the number of typhoid and dengue cases with the ecological variables. The monthly data of dengue and typhoid cases from 2014 to 2017 were taken from integrated diseases surveillance programme, Government of India. This data was analysed by three models namely support vector regression, neural network and linear regression. The proposed simple average ensemble model was constructed by ensemble of three applied regression models i.e. SVR, NN and LR. We combine the regression models based upon the error metrics such as Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error. It was found that proposed ensemble method performed better in terms of forecast measures. The finding demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms as compared to already available applied models on the basis of forecast accuracy.
This study was carried out to compare the rate and extent of absorption of a generic salbutamol in oral dosage form (Brethmol, 4 mg) with the proprietary equivalent product (Ventolin, 4 mg), in healthy adult subjects, under fasting conditions. The study was a single dose, randomized, two way crossover study with a four-week washout period. It involved 22 healthy volunteers who received a single dose (4 mg) of the test and the reference products after an overnight fast of at least 10 hours. Blood samples were collected at pre-dose and a serial of 14 samples were collected from each of the subject from 1 h until 48 h post-dose. Plasma concentrations of salbutamol were analyzed using GCMS method. The mean AUC(0-yen) values were 91.26 and 96.45 h.ng/ml for reference and test product, respectively. The mean C(max) values were 12.26 and 12.38 ng/ml and the mean t(max) values were 2.80 and 2.33 hours for reference and test product, respectively. Analysis of variance showed that the 90% confidence intervals on the relative difference of the ratio for the AUC(0-yen) and the C(max) for the test and reference products were contained within the bioequivalence limit (80 - 125%) (C(max): 89.8 - 110.5% and AUC(0-yen): 91.6 - 121.5%). There was no statistically significant difference for the t(max) between the test and reference formulations (p = 0.30). The test formulation was found to be bioequivalent to the reference formulation with regard to AUC(0-yen) and C(max). There was no statistically significant difference in Brethmol and Ventolin t(max). In conclusion, Brethmol and Ventolin are bioequivalent in healthy subjects.