This paper presents a method that able to predict the paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). The method uses shorter heart rate variability (HRV) signals when compared to existing methods, and achieves good prediction accuracy. PAF is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the health risk of a patient, and the development of an accurate predictor of the onset of PAF is clinical important because it increases the possibility to electrically stabilize and prevent the onset of atrial arrhythmias with different pacing techniques. We propose a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III for optimizing the baseline PAF prediction system, that consists of the stages of pre-processing, HRV feature extraction, and support vector machine (SVM) model. The pre-processing stage comprises of heart rate correction, interpolation, and signal detrending. After that, time-domain, frequency-domain, non-linear HRV features are extracted from the pre-processed data in feature extraction stage. Then, these features are used as input to the SVM for predicting the PAF event. The proposed optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters and settings of various HRV feature extraction algorithms, select the best feature subsets, and tune the SVM parameters simultaneously for maximum prediction performance. The proposed method achieves an accuracy rate of 87.7%, which significantly outperforms most of the previous works. This accuracy rate is achieved even with the HRV signal length being reduced from the typical 30 min to just 5 min (a reduction of 83%). Furthermore, another significant result is the sensitivity rate, which is considered more important that other performance metrics in this paper, can be improved with the trade-off of lower specificity.
This paper proposes a method that predicts the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), using heart rate variability (HRV) segments that are shorter than those applied in existing methods, while maintaining good prediction accuracy. PAF is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the health risk of a patient, and the development of an accurate predictor of the onset of PAF is clinical important because it increases the possibility to stabilize (electrically) and prevent the onset of atrial arrhythmias with different pacing techniques. We investigate the effect of HRV features extracted from different lengths of HRV segments prior to PAF onset with the proposed PAF prediction method. The pre-processing stage of the predictor includes QRS detection, HRV quantification and ectopic beat correction. Time-domain, frequency-domain, non-linear and bispectrum features are then extracted from the quantified HRV. In the feature selection, the HRV feature set and classifier parameters are optimized simultaneously using an optimization procedure based on genetic algorithm (GA). Both full feature set and statistically significant feature subset are optimized by GA respectively. For the statistically significant feature subset, Mann-Whitney U test is used to filter non-statistical significance features that cannot pass the statistical test at 20% significant level. The final stage of our predictor is the classifier that is based on support vector machine (SVM). A 10-fold cross-validation is applied in performance evaluation, and the proposed method achieves 79.3% prediction accuracy using 15-minutes HRV segment. This accuracy is comparable to that achieved by existing methods that use 30-minutes HRV segments, most of which achieves accuracy of around 80%. More importantly, our method significantly outperforms those that applied segments shorter than 30 minutes.