OBJECTIVES: This study examined the incidence of CVD and mortality in Malaysia and the Philippines and estimated the population-level risks attributable to common risk factors for each outcome.
METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 20,272 participants from Malaysia and the Philippines. The mean follow-up was 8.2 years. The incidences of CVD and mortality rates were calculated for the overall cohort and in key subgroups. For each outcome, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to compare risks associated with 12 modifiable risk factors.
RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 51.8 years (59% women). Leading causes of mortality were CVD (37.9%) and cancer (12.4%). The incidence of CVD (per 1,000 person-years) was higher in the Philippines (11.0) than Malaysia (8.3), and CVD contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the Philippines (58% vs 36%). By contrast, all-cause mortality rates were higher in Malaysia (14.1) than in the Philippines (10.9). Approximately 78% of the PAF for CVD and 68% of the PAF for all-cause mortality were attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors. For CVD, the largest PAF was from hypertension (24.2%), whereas for all-cause mortality, the largest PAF was from low education (18.4%).
CONCLUSIONS: CVD and cancer account for one-half of adult mortality in Malaysia and the Philippines. Hypertension was the largest population driver of CVD, whereas low education was associated with the largest burden of overall mortality.
METHODS: The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 21 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years. Height was measured in a standardized manner, without shoes, to the nearest 0.1 cm. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years (interquartile range 8.3-12.0), we assessed the risk of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events and cancer.
RESULTS: A total of 154 610 participants, enrolled since January 2003, with known height and vital status, were included in this analysis. Follow-up event data until March 2021 were used; 11 487 (7.4%) participants died, whereas 9291 (6.0%) participants had a major cardiovascular event and 5873 (3.8%) participants had a new diagnosis of cancer. After adjustment, taller individuals had lower hazards of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) per 10-cm increase in height 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.96] and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00), whereas the hazard of cancer was higher in taller participants (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28). The interaction p-values between height and country-income level for all three outcomes were <0.001, suggesting that the association with height varied by country-income level for these outcomes. In low-income countries, height was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.92) and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93). There was no association of height with these outcomes in middle- and high-income countries. The respective HRs for cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries were 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.32), 1.12 (95% CI 1.04-1.22) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.14-1.26).
CONCLUSIONS: Unlike high- and middle-income countries, tall stature has a strong inverse association with all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events in low-income countries. Improved childhood physical development and advances in population-wide cardiovascular treatments in high- and middle-income countries may contribute to this gap. From a life-course perspective, we hypothesize that optimizing maternal and child health in low-income countries may improve rates of premature mortality and cardiovascular events in these countries, at a population level.