METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus to identify articles reporting epidemiological models in snakebite envenoming from database inception to 31st December 2023. A narrative synthesis was performed to summarise types of models, methodologies, input parameters, model outputs, and associating factors.
RESULTS: Thirty-nine modelling studies were included from 2426 retrieved articles, comprising statistical models (76.9%) and mathematical models (23.1%). Most of the studies were conducted in South Asia, (35.9%) and Latin America (35.9%), and only a few (5.1%) were a global burden estimation. The eligible studies constructed 42 epidemiological models, of which 33 were statistical models that included regression, (60.6%) geostatistical (21.2%), and time series, (18.2%) while 9 mathematical models comprised compartmental, (44.4%) agent-based, (22.2%) transmission dynamics, (11.1%) network, (11.1%) and a simple mathematical model (11.1%). The outputs of the models varied across the study objectives. Statistical models analysed the relationship between incidence, (83.3%) mortality, (33.3%) morbidity (16.7%) and prevalence (10.0%) and their associating factors (environmental, [80%] socio-demographic [33.3%] and therapeutic [10.0%]). Mathematical models estimated incidence, (100%) mortality (33.3%), and morbidity (22.2%). Five mathematical modelling studies considered associating factors, including environmental (60%) and socio-demographic factors (40%).
CONCLUSION: Mathematical and statistical models are crucial for estimating the burden of snakebite envenoming, offering insights into risk prediction and resource allocation. Current challenges include low-quality data and methodological heterogeneity. Modelling studies are needed, and their continued improvement is vital for meeting WHO goals. Future research should emphasise standardised methodologies, high-quality community data, and stakeholder engagement to create accurate, applicable models for prevention and resource optimization in high-burden regions, including Africa and Asia.