Dengue is a globally known infection in which the virus is transmitted by
mosquitoes and can lead to death. Selangor has been reported to have the
highest incidence of dengue infections among the communities in Malaysia.
There is currently a new pandemic, COVID-19, which occurred worldwide,
including Selangor, which led to this study on the pattern of dengue cases
during COVID-19. The aim of this study is to develop the best model to
predict the future value of dengue cases in Selangor. In order to meet the
objectives, the ARIMA method and the Holt-Winters method were used to
evaluate dengue case data collected in Selangor. The best model was chosen
by evaluating the Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) measurement errors.
Then, the forecasted number of dengue cases was calculated using the best
model generated. The best model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor is the
Additive Holt-Winters model since it showed the lowest values of all
measurement errors compared to the Multiplicative Holt-Winters and
ARIMA (1,1,0) models.