BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular risk-prediction models are used in clinical practice to identify and treat high-risk populations, and to communicate risk effectively. We assessed the validity and utility of four cardiovascular risk-prediction models in an Asian population of a middle-income country.
METHODS:Data from a national population-based survey of 14,863 participants aged 40 to 65 years, with a follow-up duration of 73,277 person-years was used. The Framingham Risk Score (FRS), SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation)-high and -low cardiovascular-risk regions and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) models were assessed. The outcome of interest was 5-year cardiovascular mortality. Discrimination was assessed for all models and calibration for the SCORE models.
RESULTS:Cardiovascular risk factors were highly prevalent; smoking 20%, obesity 32%, hypertension 55%, diabetes mellitus 18% and hypercholesterolemia 34%. The FRS and SCORE models showed good agreement in risk stratification. The FRS, SCORE-high and -low models showed good discrimination for cardiovascular mortality, areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.768, 0.774 and 0.775 respectively. The WHO/ISH model showed poor discrimination, AUC=0.613. Calibration of the SCORE-high model was graphically and statistically acceptable for men (χ(2) goodness-of-fit, p=0.097). The SCORE-low model was statistically acceptable for men (χ(2) goodness-of-fit, p=0.067). Both SCORE-models underestimated risk in women (p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS:The FRS and SCORE-high models, but not the WHO/ISH model can be used to identify high cardiovascular risk in the Malaysian population. The SCORE-high model predicts risk accurately in men but underestimated it in women.
KEYWORDS:Cardiovascular disease prevention; Mortality; Risk prediction; Risk score; Validation
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and its clustering. The findings are to help shape the Malaysian future healthcare planning for cardiovascular disease prevention and management.
METHODS: Data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey was used. The survey was conducted via a face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire. A total of 37,906 eligible participants aged 18 years and older was identified, of whom 34,505 (91%) participated. Focus was on hypertension, hyperglycaemia (diabetes and impaired fasting glucose), hypercholesterolaemia and central obesity.
RESULTS: Overall, 63% (95% confidence limits 62, 65%) of the participants had at least one cardiovascular risk factor, 33% (32, 35%) had two or more and 14% (12, 15%) had three risk factors or more. The prevalence of hypertension, hyperglycaemia, hypercholesterolaemia and central obesity were 38%, 15%, 24% and 37%, respectively. Women were more likely to have a higher number of cardiovascular risk factors for most age groups; adjusted odds ratios ranging from 1.1 (0.91, 1.32) to 1.26 (1.12, 1.43) for the presence of one risk factor and 1.07 (0.91, 1.32) to 2.00 (1.78, 2.25) for two or more risk factors.
CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular risk-factor clustering provides a clear impression of the true burden of cardiovascular disease risk in the population. Women displayed higher prevalence and a younger age shift in clustering was seen. These findings signal the presence of a cardiovascular epidemic in an upcoming middle-income country and provide evidence that drastic measures have to be taken to safeguard the health of the nation.
Study name: National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS-2006)
INTRODUCTION: Malaysia participated in the second phase of the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) in 2011. GATS, a new component of the Global Tobacco Surveillance System, is a nationally representative household survey of adults 15 years old or above. The objectives of GATS Malaysia were to (i) systematically monitor tobacco use among adults and track key indicators of tobacco control and (ii) track the implementation of some of the Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC)-recommended demand related policies.
METHODS: GATS Malaysia 2011 was a nationwide cross-sectional survey using multistage stratified sampling to select 5112 nationally representative households. One individual aged 15 years or older was randomly chosen from each selected household and interviewed using handheld device. GATS Core Questionnaire with optional questions was pre-tested and uploaded into handheld devices after repeated quality control processes. Data collectors were trained through a centralized training. Manuals and picture book were prepared to aid in the training of data collectors and during data collection. Field-level data were aggregated on a daily basis and analysed twice a week. Quality controls were instituted to ensure collection of high quality data. Sample weighting and analysis were conducted with the assistance of researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA.
RESULTS: GATS Malaysia received a total response rate of 85.3% from 5112 adults surveyed. Majority of the respondents were 25-44 years old and Malays.
CONCLUSIONS: The robust methodology used in the GATS Malaysia provides national estimates for tobacco used classified by socio-demographic characteristics and reliable data on various dimensions of tobacco control.
Study name: Global Adults Tobacco Survey (GATS-2011)