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  1. Chow JY, Bansal S, Dickens BSL, Ma P, Hoffmann A, Cheong YL, et al.
    EBioMedicine, 2024 Dec;110:105456.
    PMID: 39615459 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105456
    BACKGROUND: Dengue remains a global health challenge with limited treatment options, highlighting the need for effective vector control strategies. The introduction of Wolbachia pipientis into Aedes aegypti populations has shown success in reducing dengue transmission across global field trials. However, the spillover effectiveness of the technology on untreated areas is not well-known. This study estimates the spillover protective effectiveness (PE) of Wolbachia-mediated introgression on dengue.

    METHODS: We used the synthetic control method (SCM) under assumption of partial interference to evaluate the direct and spillover PEs of Wolbachia-mediated introgression in a long-running operational trial of the intervention in Malaysia. Synthetic controls (SCs), which comprise of a weighted sum of non-spillover controls, were constructed for each directly-treated and spillover site in the pre-intervention period to account for historical imbalances in dengue risk and risk trajectories. SCs were compared to directly/spillover-treated sites to estimate the impact of Wolbachia-introgression on dengue incidence across each site, calendar year and intervention time. Robustness checks, including visual inspections, root-mean-square error (RMSE) calculations, in-space and in-time placebo checks, and permutation tests, were used to inspect the model's ability in attributing dengue incidence reductions to the Wolbachia interventions.

    FINDINGS: The direct and spillover PEs of Wolbachia on dengue incidence were expressed as a percentage reduction of dengue incidence, or the absolute case reductions, by comparing SCs to actual intervention/spillover sites. Findings indicate a direct reduction in dengue incidence by 64.35% (95% CI: 63.50-66.71, p Hoffmann et al. (2024) study was funded by the Wellcome Trust Awards 226166, 108508, 202888 and the Ministry of Health Malaysia NMRR-16-297-28898.

  2. Hudson LN, Newbold T, Contu S, Hill SL, Lysenko I, De Palma A, et al.
    Ecol Evol, 2017 Jan;7(1):145-188.
    PMID: 28070282 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2579
    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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