METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 866 patients from the Gulf Left Main Registry who presented between 2015 and 2019. The study outcome was hospital all-cause mortality. Various machine learning models [logistic regression, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, naïve Bayes, multilayer perception, boosting] were used to predict mortality, and their performance was measured using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC).
RESULTS: Nonsurvivors had significantly greater EuroSCORE II values (1.84 (10.08-3.67) vs. 4.75 (2.54-9.53) %, P <0.001 for survivors and nonsurvivors, respectively). The EuroSCORE II score significantly predicted hospital mortality (OR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.09-1.18), P <0.001), with an AUC of 0.736. RF achieved the best ML performance (accuracy=98, precision=100, recall=97, and F1 score=98). Explainable artificial intelligence using SHAP demonstrated the most important features as follows: preoperative lactate level, emergency surgery, chronic kidney disease (CKD), NSTEMI, nonsmoking status, and sex. QLattice identified lactate and CKD as the most important factors for predicting hospital mortality this patient group.
CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the potential of ML, particularly the Random Forest, to accurately predict hospital mortality in patients undergoing CABG for LMCA disease and its superiority over traditional methods. The key risk factors identified, including preoperative lactate levels, emergency surgery, chronic kidney disease, NSTEMI, nonsmoking status, and sex, provide valuable insights for risk stratification and informed decision-making in this high-risk patient population. Additionally, incorporating newly identified risk factors into future risk-scoring systems can further improve mortality prediction accuracy.
METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with AMICS presenting to multiple centers across the Gulf region between January 2020 and December 2022. Patients were grouped according to SCAI-Cardiogenic Shock Working Group classification: group 1 (SCAI shock stages B/C) and group 2 (SCAI shock stages D/E). Primary end points were survival at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Both univariate and multivariate statistical methods were employed in the analysis.
RESULTS: A total of 1513 patients from the Gulf Cardiogenic Shock registry, were included with 31.1% in group 1 and 68.9% in group 2. The median follow-up was 6 months. Survival rates in group 1 were 87%, 72%, 56%, and 48% at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months, respectively, whereas group 2 exhibited survival rates of 66%, 29%, 14%, and 4%, respectively, over the same periods. Survival progressively declined with advancing SCAI shock stages, with stage B having the highest survival rates and stage E the lowest (P < .001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified higher SCAI stages as strong predictors of increased mortality, with patients in group 2 having a more than 3-fold higher risk of mortality compared to those in group 1 (hazard ratio, 3.13; 95% CI, 2.40-4.07; P < .001). Additionally, lower left ventricular ejection fraction, advanced age, and the presence of tachyarrhythmias were associated with increased mortality risk.
CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to validate SCAI-Cardiogenic Shock Working Group stages in a large cohort of patients with AMICS. The SCAI shock staging classification was significantly associated with higher short- and long-term mortality in this cohort, with patients in more advanced stages (D/E) experiencing markedly worse survival outcomes. These findings underscore the utility of SCAI staging in stratifying long-term risk among AMICS patients in the Gulf region. Identification of cardiogenic shock patients at SCAI stages D and E with early hemodynamic monitoring and treating them aggressively with newer mechanical circulatory support in the early stages may improve patient survival.
METHODS: Data from the Gulf Cardiogenic Shock (Gulf-CS) registry-a multicenter registry of CS-AMI patients from six Gulf countries-were analyzed to compare in-hospital and long-term outcomes for patients with and without RVD. RVD was defined by echocardiographic criteria: TAPSE <17 mm, S' wave <12 cm/s, and TAPSE/PASP ratio < 0.34. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression models were used to identify in-hospital and follow-up mortality predictors.
RESULTS: Among 1,513 CS-AMI patients, RVD was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality (55.87% vs. 42.89%, p < 0.001) and lower survival at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months (58%, 35%, 18%, and 6% vs. 73%, 53%, 38%, and 30%; p < 0.001). Predictors of in-hospital mortality included advanced SCAI shock stage, cardiac arrest, age, NSTEMI, number of vessels affected, and elevated creatinine, while follow-up mortality was associated with advanced SCAI stage, reduced LVEF, elevated BUN, history of CABG and comorbidities including COPD and prior CVA.
CONCLUSION: RVD is a significant independent predictor of both in-hospital and long-term mortality in CS-AMI, highlighting the need for early RVD assessment and specific interventions. This study's findings support the integration of RV-focused management strategies to improve survival outcomes in this high-risk population.
METHODS: The Gulf-CS registry included 1,513 patients with AMI-CS diagnosed between January 2020 and December 2022.
RESULTS: The incidence of AMI-CS was 4.1% (1513/37379). The median age was 60 years. The most common presentation was ST-elevation MI (73.83%). In-hospital mortality was 45.5%. Majority of patients were in SCAI stage D and E (68.94%). Factors associated with hospital mortality were previous coronary artery bypass graft (OR:2.49; 95%CI: 1.321-4.693), cerebrovascular accident (OR:1.621, 95%CI: 1.032-2.547), chronic kidney disease (OR:1.572; 95%CI1.158-2.136), non-ST-elevation MI (OR:1.744; 95%CI: 1.058-2.873), cardiac arrest (OR:5.702; 95%CI: 3.640-8.933), SCAI stage D and E (OR:19.146; 95CI%: 9.902-37.017), prolonged QRS (OR:10.012; 95%CI: 1.006-1.019), right ventricular dysfunction (OR:1.679; 95%CI: 1.267-2.226) and ventricular septal rupture (OR:6.008; 95%CI: 2.256-15.998). Forty percent had invasive hemodynamic monitoring, 90.02% underwent revascularization, and 45.80% received mechanical circulatory support (41.31% had Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump and 14.21% had Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/Impella devices). Survival at 12 months was 51.49% (95% CI: 46.44- 56.29%).
CONCLUSIONS: The study highlighted the significant burden of AMI-CS in this region, with high in-hospital mortality. The study identified several key risk factors associated with increased hospital mortality. Despite the utilization of invasive hemodynamic monitoring, revascularization, and mechanical circulatory support in a substantial proportion of patients, the 12-month survival rate remained relatively low.