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Fulltext Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America

Kyaw MH, Spinardi JR, Jagun O, Franco Villalobos C, Kapetanakis V, Sharf-Williams R, et al.

BMJ Open, 2024 Jan 31;14(1):e081019.
PMID: 38296298 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-081019

OBJECTIVES: Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies.
DESIGN: In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed.
SETTING: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 cases and influenza cases.
RESULTS: No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period.
CONCLUSIONS: These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.
Fulltext Narrative Review of the Evolution of COVID-19 Vaccination Recommendations in Countries in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, and Asia

Spinardi J, Dantas AC, Carballo C, Thakkar K, Akoury NA, Kyaw MH, et al.

Infect Dis Ther, 2023 May;12(5):1237-1264.
PMID: 37097556 DOI: 10.1007/s40121-023-00804-2

The rapid rollout of vaccines to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic over the past 2 years has resulted in the use of various vaccine platforms and regional differences in COVID-19 vaccine implementation strategies. The aim of this narrative review was to summarize evolving COVID-19 vaccine recommendations in countries in Latin America, Asia, and Africa and the Middle East across various vaccine platforms, age groups, and specific subpopulations. Nuances in primary and booster vaccination schedules were evaluated, and the preliminary impact of such diverse vaccination strategies are discussed, including key vaccine effectiveness data in the era of Omicron-lineage variants. Primary vaccination rates for included Latin American countries were 71-94% for adults and between 41% and 98% for adolescents and children; rates for first booster in adults were 36-85%. Primary vaccination rates for adults in the included Asian countries ranged from 64% in the Philippines to 98% in Malaysia, with corresponding booster rates varying from 9% in India to 78% in Singapore; for adolescents and children, primary vaccination rates ranged from 29% in the Philippines to 93% in Malaysia. Across included African and Middle Eastern countries, primary vaccination rates in adults varied widely from 32% in South Africa to 99% in the United Arab Emirates; booster rates ranged from 5% in South Africa to 60% in Bahrain. Evidence from the regions studied indicates preference of using an mRNA vaccine as a booster on the basis of safety and effectiveness of observed real-world data, especially during circulation of Omicron lineages. Vaccination against COVID-19 remains of paramount importance to reduce the burden of disease; strategies to overcome vaccine inequity, fatigue, hesitancy, and misinformation and to ensure adequate access and supply are also important.
Fulltext Modeling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine in Malaysia

Thakkar K, Spinardi J, Kyaw MH, Yang J, Mendoza CF, Dass M, et al.

Expert Rev Vaccines, 2023;22(1):714-725.
PMID: 37548520 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2023.2245465

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case numbers have increased following the emergence of the Omicron variant. This study estimated the impact of introducing and increasing the coverage of an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine in Malaysia.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A combined cohort Markov decision tree model was used to compare booster vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine versus no booster vaccination in Malaysia. The model utilized age-specific data from January 2021 to March 2022 derived from published sources. The outcomes of interest included case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths, medical costs, and productivity losses. The population was stratified into high-risk and standard-risk subpopulations, and the study evaluated the benefits of increased coverage in different age and risk groups.
RESULTS: Vaccinating only high-risk individuals and those aged ≥ 65 years was estimated to avert 274,313 cases, 33229 hospitalizations, 2,434 deaths, Malaysian ringgit (MYR) 576 million in direct medical costs, and MYR 579 million in indirect costs. Expanding vaccination coverage in the standard-risk population to 75% was estimated to avert more deaths (31%), hospitalizations (155%), infections (206%), direct costs (206%), and indirect costs (281%).
CONCLUSIONS: These findings support broader population Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccination in Malaysia with potential for significant health and economic gains.
Fulltext Incidence and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Ismail NF, Rahman AE, Kulkarni D, Zhu F, Wang X, Del Carmen Morales G, et al.

J Glob Health, 2023 Nov 24;13:06051.
PMID: 37994839 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.13.06051

BACKGROUND: With the emergence of new variants and sub-lineages of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), reinfections can significantly impact herd immunity, vaccination policies, and decisions on other public health measures. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise the global evidence on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in the pre-Omicron era.
METHODS: We searched five global databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, Global Health, WHO COVID-19) on 12 May 2022 and 28 July 2023 and three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, CQvip) on 16 October 2022 for articles reporting incidence and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection before the period of Omicron (B.1.1.529) predominance. We assessed risk of bias using Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools and conducted meta-analyses with random effects models to estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among initially infected cases and hospitalisation and mortality proportions among reinfected ones.
RESULTS: We identified 7593 studies and extracted data from 64 included ones representing 21 countries. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was 1.16% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.33) based on 11 639 247 initially infected cases, with ≥45 days between the two infections. Healthcare providers (2.28%; 95% CI = 1.37-3.40) had a significantly higher risk of reinfection than the general population (1.00%; 95% CI = 0.81-1.20), while young adults aged 18 to 35 years (1.01%; 95% CI = 0.8-1.25) had a higher reinfection burden than other age groups (children <18 years old: 0.57%; 95% CI = 0.39-0.79, older adults aged 36-65 years old: 0.53%; 95% CI = 0.41-0.65, elderly >65 years old: 0.37%; 95% CI = 0.15-0.66). Among the reinfected cases, 8.12% (95% CI = 5.30-11.39) were hospitalised, 1.31% (95% CI = 0.29-2.83) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 0.71% (95% CI = 0.02-2.01) died.
CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest a relatively low risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era, but the risk of hospitalisation was relatively high among the reinfected cases. Considering the possibility of underdiagnosis, the reinfection burden may be underestimated.
REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42023449712.
Fulltext Epidemiology and clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents in the pre-Omicron era: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Kulkarni D, Ismail NF, Zhu F, Wang X, Del Carmen Morales G, Srivastava A, et al.

J Glob Health, 2024 Mar 01;14:05003.
PMID: 38419461 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.05003

METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, CQvip, and the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 global literature databases for primary studies recruiting children aged ≤18 years with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed either by molecular or antigen tests. We used the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools to appraise the study quality and conducted meta-analyses using the random effects model for all outcomes except for race/ethnicity as risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
RESULTS: We included 237 studies, each reporting at least one of the study outcomes. Based on data from 117 studies, the pooled SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate was 9.30% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.15-11.73). Having a comorbidity was identified as a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection (risk ratio (RR) = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.04-1.71) based on data from 49 studies. Most cases in this review presented with mild disease (n = 50; 52.47% (95% CI = 44.03-60.84)). However, 20.70% of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections were hospitalised (67 studies), 7.19% required oxygen support (57 studies), 4.26% required intensive care (93 studies), and 2.92% required assisted ventilation (63 studies). The case fatality ratio (n = 119) was 0.87% (95% CI = 0.54-1.28), which included in-hospital and out-of-hospital deaths.
CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed that children were at risk for SARS-CoV-2 infections and severe outcomes in the pre-Omicron era. These findings underscore the need for effective vaccination strategies for the paediatric population to protect against the acute and long-term sequelae of COVID-19.
REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42022327680.