MATERIAL AND METHODS: A validated database was used to generate data related to countries with declared lockdown. Simple regression analysis was conducted to assess the rate of change in infection and death rates. Subsequently, a k-means and hierarchical cluster analysis was done to identify the countries that performed similarly. Sweden and South Korea were included as counties without lockdown in a second-phase cluster analysis.
RESULTS: There was a significant 61% and 43% reduction in infection rates 1-week post lockdown in the overall and India cohorts, respectively, supporting its effectiveness. Countries with higher baseline infections and deaths (Spain, Germany, Italy, UK, and France-cluster 1) fared poorly compared to those who declared lockdown early on (Belgium, Austria, New Zealand, India, Hungary, Poland and Malaysia-cluster 2). Sweden and South Korea, countries without lock-down, fared as good as the countries in cluster 2.
CONCLUSION: Lockdown has proven to be an effective strategy is slowing down the SARS-CoV-2 disease progression (infection rate and death) exponentially. The success story of non-lock-down countries (Sweden and South Korea) need to be explored in detail, to identify the variables responsible for the positive results.