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Selecting a probability distribution for extreme rainfall series in Malaysia

Zalina MD, Desa MN, Nguyen VT, Kassim AH

Water Sci Technol, 2002;45(2):63-8.
PMID: 11890166

This paper discusses the comparative assessment of eight candidate distributions in providing accurate and reliable maximum rainfall estimates for Malaysia. The models considered were the Gamma, Generalised Normal, Generalised Pareto, Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel, Log Pearson Type III, Pearson Type III and Wakeby. Annual maximum rainfall series for one-hour resolution from a network of seventeen automatic gauging stations located throughout Peninsular Malaysia were selected for this study. The length of rainfall records varies from twenty-three to twenty-eight years. Model parameters were estimated using the L-moment method. The quantitative assessment of the descriptive ability of each model was based on the Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient test combined with root mean squared error, relative root mean squared error and maximum absolute deviation. Bootstrap resampling was employed to investigate the extrapolative ability of each distribution. On the basis of these comparisons, it can be concluded that the GEV distribution is the most appropriate distribution for describing the annual maximum rainfall series in Malaysia.
Fulltext Stochasticity of bacterial attachment and its predictability by the extended derjaguin-landau-verwey-overbeek theory

Chia TW, Nguyen VT, McMeekin T, Fegan N, Dykes GA

Appl Environ Microbiol, 2011 Jun;77(11):3757-64.
PMID: 21478319 DOI: 10.1128/AEM.01415-10

Bacterial attachment onto materials has been suggested to be stochastic by some authors but nonstochastic and based on surface properties by others. We investigated this by attaching pairwise combinations of two Salmonella enterica serovar Sofia (S. Sofia) strains (with different physicochemical and attachment properties) with one strain each of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium, S. enterica serovar Infantis, or S. enterica serovar Virchow (all with similar physicochemical and attachment abilities) in ratios of 0.428, 1, and 2.333 onto glass, stainless steel, Teflon, and polysulfone. Attached bacterial cells were recovered and counted. If the ratio of attached cells of each Salmonella serovar pair recovered was the same as the initial inoculum ratio, the attachment process was deemed stochastic. Experimental outcomes from the study were compared to those predicted by the extended Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (XDLVO) theory. Significant differences (P < 0.05) between the initial and the attached ratios for serovar pairs containing S. Sofia S1296a for all different ratios were apparent for all materials. For S. Sofia S1635-containing pairs, 7 out of 12 combinations of serovar pairs and materials had attachment ratios not significantly different (P > 0.05) from the initial ratio of 0.428. Five out of 12 and 10 out of 12 samples had attachment ratios not significantly different (P > 0.05) from the initial ratios of 1 and 2.333, respectively. These results demonstrate that bacterial attachment to different materials is likely to be nonstochastic only when the key physicochemical properties of the bacteria were significantly different (P < 0.05) from each other. XDLVO theory could successfully predict the attachment of some individual isolates to particular materials but could not be used to predict the likelihood of stochasticity in pairwise attachment experiments.
Fulltext Treatment of dementia and mild cognitive impairment with or without cerebrovascular disease: Expert consensus on the use of Ginkgo biloba extract, EGb 761®

Kandiah N, Ong PA, Yuda T, Ng LL, Mamun K, Merchant RA, et al.

CNS Neurosci Ther, 2019 02;25(2):288-298.
PMID: 30648358 DOI: 10.1111/cns.13095

BACKGROUND: The Ginkgo biloba special extract, EGb 761® has been widely used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders, including Alzheimer's disease (AD).
METHODS: To guide clinical practice in the Asian region, the Asian Clinical Expert Group on Neurocognitive Disorders compiled evidence-based consensus recommendations regarding the use of EGb 761® in neurocognitive disorders with/without cerebrovascular disease.
RESULTS: Key randomized trials and robust meta-analyses have demonstrated significant improvement in cognitive function, neuropsychiatric symptoms, activities of daily living (ADL) and quality of life with EGb 761® versus placebo in patients with mild-to-moderate dementia. In those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), EGb 761® has also demonstrated significant symptomatic improvement versus placebo. World Federation of Societies of Biological Psychiatry guidelines list EGb 761® with the same strength of evidence as acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) antagonists e.g. memantine (Grade 3 recommendation; Level B evidence). Only EGb 761® had Level B evidence in improving cognition, behaviour, and ADL in both AD and vascular dementia patients. Safety analyses show EGb 761® to have a positive risk-benefit profile. While concerns have been raised regarding a possible increased bleeding risk, several randomized trials and two meta-analyses have not supported this association.
CONCLUSIONS: The Expert Group foresee an important role for EGb 761® , used alone or as an add-on therapy, in the treatment of MCI and dementias, particularly when patients do not derive benefit from acetylcholinesterase inhibitors or NMDA antagonists. EGb 761® should be used in alignment with local clinical practice guidelines.

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