METHODS: Between June 2015 and August 2016, 50 HIV-positive TGW were recruited in Lima, Peru. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with viral suppression (<200 copies/mL) among the TGW.

RESULTS: Among TGW, 85% achieved viral suppression. Approximately half (54%) reported anal sex with more than five partners in the past 6 months, 38% reported sex work, 68% had not disclosed their HIV status to one or more of their partners, and 38% reported condomless sex with their last partner. The prevalence of alcohol use disorders was high (54%), and 38% reported use of drugs in the past year. Moderate-to-severe drug use significantly reduced odds of achieving viral suppression (adjusted odds ratio 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.98).

METHODS: We adapted a dynamic model of HIV transmission among MSM/TW in Lima to incorporate stimulant use and increased HIV risk, suicide and CVD mortality. Among 6% to 24% of MSM/TW using stimulants (mostly cocaine), we modelled an increased risk of unprotected anal sex (RR = 1.35 [95%CI: 1.17 to 1.57]) obtained from local data, and increased risk of suicide (SMR = 6.26 [95%CI: 2.84 to 13.80]) and CVD (SMR = 1.83 [95%CI: 0.39 to 8.57]) mortality associated with cocaine use based on a global systematic review. We estimated the proportion of health harms occurring among MSM/TW who use stimulants in the next year (01-2020/01-2021). We also investigated the 10-year impact (01-2020/01-2030) of: (1) PrEP prioritization for stimulant-using MSM/TW compared to random allocation, and (2) integrating PrEP with a theoretical intervention halving stimulant-associated risk.

RESULTS: MSM/TW in Lima will experience high HIV incidence, suicide mortality and CVD mortality (1.6/100 py, and 0.018/100 py, 0.13/100 py respectively) in 2020. Despite stimulant using MSM/TW comprising an estimated 9.5% (95%CI: 7.8 to 11.5) of all MSM/TW, in the next year, 11% 95%CI (i.e. 2.5% to 97.5% percentile) 10% to 13%) of new HIV infections, 39% (95%CI: 18% to 60%) of suicides and 15% (95%CI: 3% to 44%) of CVD deaths could occur among this group. Scaling up PrEP among all stimulant using MSM/TW could prevent 19% (95%CI: 11% to 31%) more HIV infections over 10 years compared to random allocation. Integrating PrEP and an intervention to halve stimulant-associated risks could reduce new HIV infections by 20% (95%CI: 10% to 37%), suicide deaths by 14% (95%CI: 5% to 27%) and CVD deaths by 3% (95%CI: 0% to 16%) over a decade.