Affiliations 

  • 1 School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
  • 2 Laboratory de Mathematiques de Besancon, University of Franche-Comte, France
PMID: 38620099 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113722

Abstract

The global impact of COVID-19 has led to the development of numerous mathematical models to understand and control the pandemic. However, these models have not fully captured how the disease's dynamics are influenced by both within-host and between-host factors. To address this, a new mathematical model is proposed that links these dynamics and incorporates immune response. The model is compartmentalized with a fractional derivative in the sense of Caputo-Fabrizio, and its properties are studied to show a unique solution. Parameter estimation is carried out by fitting real-life data, and sensitivity analysis is conducted using various methods. The model is then numerically implemented to demonstrate how the dynamics within infected hosts drive human-to-human transmission, and various intervention strategies are compared based on the percentage of averted deaths. The simulations suggest that a combination of medication to boost the immune system, prevent infected cells from producing the virus, and adherence to COVID-19 protocols is necessary to control the spread of the virus since no single intervention strategy is sufficient.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.