Assessing the spatial scale of synchrony in forest tree population dynamics

Chisholm RA 1 , Fung T 1 , Anderson-Teixeira KJ 2 , Bourg NA 2 , Brockelman WY 3 , Bunyavejchewin S 4 Show all authors , Chang-Yang CH 5 , Chen YY 6 , Chuyong GB 7 , Condit R 8 , Dattaraja HS 9 , Davies SJ 10 , Ediriweera S 11 , Ewango CEN 12 , Fernando ES 13 , Gunatilleke IAUN 14 , Gunatilleke CVS 14 , Hao Z 15 , Howe RW 16 , Kenfack D 17 , Yao TL 18 , Makana JR 19 , McMahon SM 20 , Mi X 21 , Bt Mohamad M 22 , Myers JA 23 , Nathalang A 3 , Pérez ÁJ 24 , Phumsathan S 25 , Pongpattananurak N 4 , Ren H 21 , Rodriguez LJV 26 , Sukumar R 9 , Sun IF 6 , Suresh HS 9 , Thomas DW 27 , Thompson J 28 , Uriarte M 29 , Valencia R 24 , Wang X 30 , Wolf AT 16 , Zimmerman JK 31

Affiliations 

  • 1 Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117558, Singapore
  • 2 Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian's National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA
  • 3 National Biobank of Thailand, National Science and Technology Development Agency, Science Park, Paholyothin Road, Khlong Luang, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
  • 4 Department of Forest Biology, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
  • 5 Department of Biological Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 80424
  • 6 Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, National Dong Hwa University, Hualien 97401
  • 7 Department of Plant Science, University of Buea, Buea PO Box 63, Cameroon
  • 8 Retired
  • 9 Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India
  • 10 Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC 20013, USA
  • 11 Department of Science and Technology, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Uva Wellassa University, Badulla 90000, Sri Lanka
  • 12 Faculty of Sustainable Management of Renewable Resources, University of Kisangani, Kisangani R408, Democratic Republic of Congo
  • 13 Department of Forest Biological Sciences, The University of the Philippines - Los Baños, Laguna 4031, Philippines
  • 14 Department of Botany, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya 20400, Sri Lanka
  • 15 State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, Liaoning 110164
  • 16 Department of Natural and Applied Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, Green Bay, WI 54311, USA
  • 17 Department of Botany, MRC-166, Smithsonian Institution, PO Box 37012, Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA
  • 18 Forestry and Environment Division, Forest Research Institute Malaysia, Kepong, Selangor 52109, Malaysia
  • 19 Faculty of Sciences, University of Kisangani, Kisangani R408, Democratic Republic of Congo
  • 20 Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037-0028, USA
  • 21 Zhejiang Qianjiangyuan Forest Biodiversity National Observation and Research Station, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093
  • 22 International Affairs Division, Forest Department Sarawak, Tkt 13, Bangunan Baitulmakmur 2, Medan Raya, Petra Jaya, Kuching, Sarawak 93050, Malaysia
  • 23 Department of Biology, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO 63130, USA
  • 24 Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Apartado, Quito 17-01-2184, Ecuador
  • 25 Thai Long-term Forest Ecological Research Project, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
  • 26 Institute of Biology, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines
  • 27 Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
  • 28 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK
  • 29 Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
  • 30 State Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silvicuture, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, Liaoning 110164
  • 31 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR 00925, USA
Proc Biol Sci, 2024 Nov;291(2035):20240486.
PMID: 39564678 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2024.0486

Abstract

Populations of forest trees exhibit large temporal fluctuations, but little is known about the synchrony of these fluctuations across space, including their sign, magnitude, causes and characteristic scales. These have important implications for metapopulation persistence and theoretical community ecology. Using data from permanent forest plots spanning local, regional and global spatial scales, we measured spatial synchrony in tree population growth rates over sub-decadal and decadal timescales and explored the relationship of synchrony to geographical distance. Synchrony was high at local scales of less than 1 km, with estimated Pearson correlations of approximately 0.6-0.8 between species' population growth rates across pairs of quadrats. Synchrony decayed by approximately 17-44% with each order of magnitude increase in distance but was still detectably positive at distances of 100 km and beyond. Dispersal cannot explain observed large-scale synchrony because typical seed dispersal distances (<100 m) are far too short to couple the dynamics of distant forests on decadal timescales. We attribute the observed synchrony in forest dynamics primarily to the effect of spatially synchronous environmental drivers (the Moran effect), in particular climate, although pests, pathogens and anthropogenic drivers may play a role for some species.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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