Affiliations 

  • 1 Universiti Malaysia Terengganu
MyJurnal

Abstract

A wide range of studies have been conducted on deep learning to forecast time series data. However, very few researches have discussed the optimal number of hidden layers and nodes in each hidden layer of the architecture. It is crucial to study the number of hidden layers and nodes in each hidden layer as it controls the performance of the architecture. Apart from that, in the presence of the activation function, diverse computation between the hidden layers and output layer can take place. Therefore, in this study, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) architecture is developed using the Python software to forecast time series data. Then, the developed architecture is applied on the Apple Inc. stock price due to its volatile characteristic. Using historical prices, the accuracy of the forecast is measured by the different activation functions, number of hidden layers and size of data. The Keras deep learning library, which can be found in the Python software, is used to develop the MLP architecture to forecast the Apple Inc. stock price. The developed model is then applied on different cases, namely different sizes of data, different activation functions, different numbers of hidden layers of up to nine layers, and different numbers of nodes in each hidden layer. Then, the metrics mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are employed to test the accuracy of the forecast. It is found that the architecture with rectified linear unit (ReLU) outperformed in every hidden layer and each case with the highest accuracy. To conclude, the optimal number of hidden layers differs in every case as there are other influencing factors.