China, being the world's largest exporter, has now certain environmental commitments such as to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. These commitments of China has raised a reasonable concern regarding the expected reduction in the production and export of pollution intensive goods in the future. Besides China, the most efficient countries in the region to produce these goods are most of the member countries from ASEAN. The current study therefore aims to analyze if in the future, China reduces the production and export of these goods, whether the selected ASEAN countries can be the next choice for the export of pollution intensive goods. Based on the data availability for the period 1990-2019, this study considers five selected ASEAN countries (ASEAN-5). The results are based on the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Modeling (ECM). The aggregate analysis of five pollution intensive goods (pulp and paper (341), industrial chemicals (351), non-metallic minerals products (369), iron and steel (371) and non-ferrous metals (372)) suggests that Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow can significantly increase the export of pollution intensive goods only in case of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. However, there is no significant effect of FDI on the export of pollution intensive goods in case of Philippines and Singapore. The disaggregate analyses of the five pollution intensive goods suggest that in each of the ASEAN-5 countries, FDI inflow can significantly increase the export of pollution intensive goods in some of these industries rather than in all of them. In nutshell, it is concluded that ASEAN-5 countries can be a potential choice for the export of pollution intensive goods in some of the pollution intensive industries but not in all of them.
Empirical studies pertaining to the effects of fiscal policy instruments on environmental quality have provided mixed evidence. We consider the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy instruments on environmental quality for the top ten Asian carbon emitters over the period 1981-2018. We go beyond the literature and claim that the effects could be asymmetric. More specifically, we found that a positive shock in government expenditure will worsen environmental quality in Malaysia, UAE, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran, India, and China, and improve it in Japan. On the other hand, we found that cutting government expenditure will improve environmental quality in these economies and will worsen only in Japan. Moreover, a higher government income tax revenue uniquely increases the government's spending that increases the carbon emissions in Malaysia, UAE, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran, India, and China, and decrease in Japan. The negative shock of government revenue has adverse results on carbon emissions in these economies. However, short-run asymmetric effects translate to long-run effects in most Asian economies.