METHODS: We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak data of the number of confirmed cases in all countries as of October 19, 2020. The IRT-based predictive model was built to determine the pandemic IP for each country. A model building scheme was demonstrated to fit the number of cumulative infected cases. Model parameters were estimated using the Solver add-in tool in Microsoft Excel. The absolute advantage coefficient (AAC) was computed to track the IP at the minimum of incremental points on a given ogive curve. The time-to-event analysis (a.k.a. survival analysis) was performed to compare the difference in IPs among continents using the area under the curve (AUC) and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). An online comparative dashboard was created on Google Maps to present the epidemic prediction for each country.
RESULTS: The top 3 countries that were hit severely by COVID-19 were France, Malaysia, and Nepal, with IP days at 263, 262, and 262, respectively. The top 3 continents that were hit most based on IP days were Europe, South America, and North America, with their AUCs and 95% CIs at 0.73 (0.61-0.86), 0.58 (0.31-0.84), and 0.54 (0.44-0.64), respectively. An online time-event result was demonstrated and shown on Google Maps, comparing the IP probabilities across continents.
CONCLUSION: An IRT modeling scheme fitting the epidemic data was used to predict the length of IP days. Europe, particularly France, was hit seriously by COVID-19 based on the IP days. The IRT model incorporated with AAC is recommended to determine the pandemic IP.
METHODOLOGY: A mutlinational study was conducted from April-June 2020 involving researchers from 12 countries (Japan, Austria, U.S., Taiwan, India, Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand). Steps in this research consisted of carrying out open-ended questionnaires, qualitative analyses in NVivo, and a multinational meeting to reflect, exchange, and validate results. Lastly, a commuinty response model was synthesized from multinational experiences.
RESULTS: Effective communication is key in promoting collective action for preventing virus transmission. Health literacy, habits and social norms in different populations are core components of public health interventions. To enable people to stay home while sustaining livelihoods, economic and social support are essential. Countries could benefit from previous pandemic experience in their community response. Whilst contact tracing and isolation are crucial intervention components, issues of privacy and human rights need to be considered.
CONCLUSIONS: Understanding community responses to containment policies will help in ending current and future pandemics in the world.