Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a life-threatening soft tissue infection that rapidly progresses and requires urgent surgery and medical therapy. If treatment is delayed, the likelihood of an unfavorable outcome, including death, is significantly increased. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel scoring model for predicting mortality in patients with NF. The proposed system is hereafter referred to as the Mortality in Necrotizing Fasciitis (MNF) scoring system. A total of 1503 patients with NF were recruited from 3 provincial hospitals in Thailand during January 2009 to December 2012. Patients were randomly allocated into either the derivation cohort (n = 1192) or the validation cohort (n = 311). Clinical risk factors used to develop the MNF scoring system were determined by logistic regression. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores, the sum of which reflected the total MNF score. The following 6 clinical predictors were included: female gender; age > 60 years; white blood cell (WBC) ≤5000/mm3; WBC ≥ 35,000/mm3; creatinine ≥ 1.6 mg/dL, and pulse rate > 130/min. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) analysis showed the MNF scoring system to have moderate power for predicting mortality in patients with NF (AuROC: 76.18%) with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2: 1.01; P = .798). The positive likelihood ratios of mortality in patients with low-risk scores (≤2.5) and high-risk scores (≥7) were 11.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.16-20.71) and 14.71 (95%CI: 7.39-29.28), sequentially. When used to the validation cohort, the MNF scoring system presented good performance with an AuROC of 74.25%. The proposed MNF scoring system, which includes 6 commonly available and easy-to-use parameters, was shown to be an effective tool for predicting mortality in patients with NF. This validated instrument will help clinicians identify at-risk patients so that early investigations and interventions can be performed that will reduce the mortality rate among patients with NF.
Necrotizing fasciitis is a limb- and life-threatening rapidly spreading infection affecting the deep fascia with secondary necrosis of the subcutaneous tissue. It requires immediate medical attention and emergency surgery to prevent morbidity and death. This study was undertaken to determine its co-morbidity and risk factors affecting the outcome of its surgical treatment. This is a retrospective review of 36 cases of necrotizing fasciitis of the lower limb treated in our center between 1998 and 2002. Only 19% of the cases were correctly diagnosed upon admission and 48.6% were initially diagnosed as 'cellulitis'. Diabetes mellitus was the most common co-morbid. Pseudomonas, Staphylococcus, Streptococcus and Enterobactericae were the common pathogens isolated. Ten patients (27.8%) had major amputation as part of radical debridement. The overall mortality rate was 36% with laboratory parameters: high serum urea and creatinine, and low haemoglobin levels were predictors for higher mortality. Poor white cell response which is common in diabetic patients and a delay in surgical debridement were. notable attributes to a higher mortality. Necrotizing fasciitis is a serious infection associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A poor white blood cell response, high serum urea and creatinine, and low haemoglobin level were the predictors for mortality. Early diagnosis and prompt treatment are of paramount importance in the treatment of this infection.