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Fulltext Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD)

Bijker R, Kumarasamy N, Kiertiburanakul S, Pujari S, Lam W, Chaiwarith R, et al.

Antivir Ther, 2019;24(4):271-279.
PMID: 30833516 DOI: 10.3851/IMP3298

BACKGROUND: We aimed to project the 10-year future incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and model several intervention scenarios based on a multi-site Asian HIV-positive cohort.
METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation.
RESULTS: Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL.
CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.
Fulltext Factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA: application for the use of abacavir and rilpivirine as the first-line regimen for HIV-infected patients in resource-limited settings

Kiertiburanakul S, Boettiger D, Ng OT, Van Kinh N, Merati TP, Avihingsanon A, et al.

AIDS Res Ther, 2017;14:27.
PMID: 28484509 DOI: 10.1186/s12981-017-0151-1

BACKGROUND: Abacavir and rilpivirine are alternative antiretroviral drugs for treatment-naïve HIV-infected patients. However, both drugs are only recommended for the patients who have pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL. In resource-limited settings, pre-treatment HIV RNA is not routinely performed and not widely available. The aims of this study are to determine factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL and to construct a model to predict this outcome.
METHODS: HIV-infected adults enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database were eligible if they had an HIV RNA measurement documented at the time of ART initiation. The dataset was randomly split into a derivation data set (75% of patients) and a validation data set (25%). Factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL were evaluated by logistic regression adjusted for study site. A prediction model and prediction scores were created.
RESULTS: A total of 2592 patients were enrolled for the analysis. Median [interquartile range (IQR)] age was 35.8 (29.9-42.5) years; CD4 count was 147 (50-248) cells/mm3; and pre-treatment HIV RNA was 100,000 (34,045-301,075) copies/mL. Factors associated with pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL were age <30 years [OR 1.40 vs. 41-50 years; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.80, p = 0.01], body mass index >30 kg/m2(OR 2.4 vs. <18.5 kg/m2; 95% CI 1.1-5.1, p = 0.02), anemia (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.40-2.10, p 350 cells/mm3(OR 3.9 vs. <100 cells/mm3; 95% CI 2.0-4.1, p 2000 cells/mm3(OR 1.7 vs. <1000 cells/mm3; 95% CI 1.3-2.3, p p 25 yielded the sensitivity of 46.7%, specificity of 79.1%, positive predictive value of 67.7%, and negative predictive value of 61.2% for prediction of pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL among derivation patients.
CONCLUSION: A model prediction for pre-treatment HIV RNA <100,000 copies/mL produced an area under the ROC curve of 0.70. A larger sample size for prediction model development as well as for model validation is warranted.
Fulltext Late Presentation into Care of HIV Disease and Its Associated Factors in Asia: Results of TAHOD

Jeong SJ, Italiano C, Chaiwarith R, Ng OT, Vanar S, Jiamsakul A, et al.

AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses, 2016 Mar;32(3):255-61.
PMID: 26414065 DOI: 10.1089/AID.2015.0058

Many HIV-infected individuals do not enter health care until late in the infection course. Despite encouraging earlier testing, this situation has continued for several years. We investigated the prevalence of late presenters and factors associated with late presentation among HIV-infected patients in an Asian regional cohort. This cohort study included HIV-infected patients with their first positive HIV test during 2003-2012 and CD4 count and clinical status data within 3 months of that test. Factors associated with late presentation into care (CD4 count <200 cells/μl or an AIDS-defining event within ±3 months of first positive HIV test) were analyzed in a random effects logistic regression model. Among 3,744 patients, 2,681 (72%) were late presenters. In the multivariable model, older patients were more likely to be late presenters than younger (≤30 years) patients [31-40, 41-50, and ≥51 years: odds ratio (OR) = 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-1.88; OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.58-2.56; and OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.23-2.31, respectively; all p ≤ 0.001]. Injecting drug users (IDU) were more likely (OR = 2.15, 95% CI 1.42-3.27, p < 0.001) and those with homosexual HIV exposure were less likely (OR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.35-0.58, p < 0.001) to be late presenters compared to those with heterosexual HIV exposure. Females were less likely to be late presenters (OR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.36-0.53, p < 0.001). The year of first positive HIV test was not associated with late presentation. Efforts to reduce the patients who first seek HIV care at the late stage are needed. The identified risk factors associated with late presentation should be utilized in formulating targeted public health intervention to improve earlier entry into HIV care.
Fulltext Early suboptimal ART adherence was associated with missed clinical visits in HIV-infected patients in Asia

Jiamsakul A, Kerr SJ, Kiertiburanakul S, Azwa I, Zhang F, Chaiwarith R, et al.

AIDS Care, 2018 12;30(12):1560-1566.
PMID: 30021450 DOI: 10.1080/09540121.2018.1499859

Missed clinic visits can lead to poorer treatment outcomes in HIV-infected patients. Suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence has been linked to subsequent missed visits. Knowing the determinants of missed visits in Asian patients will allow for appropriate counselling and intervention strategies to ensure continuous engagement in care. A missed visit was defined as having no assessments within six months. Repeated measures logistic regression was used to analyse factors associated with missed visits. A total of 7100 patients were included from 12 countries in Asia with 2676 (37.7%) having at least one missed visit. Patients with early suboptimal self-reported adherence <95% were more likely to have a missed visit compared to those with adherence ≥95% (OR = 2.55, 95% CI(1.81-3.61)). Other factors associated with having a missed visit were homosexual (OR = 1.45, 95%CI(1.27-1.66)) and other modes of HIV exposure (OR = 1.48, 95%CI(1.27-1.74)) compared to heterosexual exposure; using PI-based (OR = 1.33, 95%CI(1.15-1.53) and other ART combinations (OR = 1.79, 95%CI(1.39-2.32)) compared to NRTI+NNRTI combinations; and being hepatitis C co-infected (OR = 1.27, 95%CI(1.06-1.52)). Patients aged >30 years (31-40 years OR = 0.81, 95%CI(0.73-0.89); 41-50 years OR = 0.73, 95%CI(0.64-0.83); and >50 years OR = 0.77, 95%CI(0.64-0.93)); female sex (OR = 0.81, 95%CI(0.72-0.90)); and being from upper middle (OR = 0.78, 95%CI(0.70-0.80)) or high-income countries (OR = 0.42, 95%CI(0.35-0.51)), were less likely to have missed visits. Almost 40% of our patients had a missed clinic visit. Early ART adherence was an indicator of subsequent clinic visits. Intensive counselling and adherence support should be provided at ART initiation in order to optimise long-term clinic attendance and maximise treatment outcomes.