METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation.
RESULTS: Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL.
CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.
METHODS: Treatment modification was defined as a change of two antiretrovirals, a drug class change or treatment interruption (TI), all for >14 days. We assessed factors associated with CD4 changes and undetectable viral load (UVL <1,000 copies/ml) at 1 year after second-line failure using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Survival time was analysed using competing risk regression.
RESULTS: Of the 328 patients who failed second-line ART in our cohorts, 208 (63%) had a subsequent treatment modification. Compared with those who continued the failing regimen, the average CD4 cell increase was higher in patients who had a modification without TI (difference =77.5, 95% CI 35.3, 119.7) while no difference was observed among those with TI (difference =-5.3, 95% CI -67.3, 56.8). Compared with those who continued the failing regimen, the odds of achieving UVL was lower in patients with TI (OR=0.18, 95% CI 0.06, 0.60) and similar among those who had a modification without TI (OR=1.97, 95% CI 0.95, 4.10), with proportions of UVL 60%, 22% and 75%, respectively. Survival time was not affected by treatment modifications.
CONCLUSIONS: CD4 cell improvements were observed in those who had treatment modification without TI compared with those on the failing regimen. When no other options are available, maintaining the same failing ART combination provided better VL control than interrupting treatment.
METHODS: Treatment modification was defined as a change of two antiretrovirals, a drug class change or treatment interruption (TI), all for >14 days. We assessed factors associated with CD4 changes and undetectable viral load (UVL <1,000 copies/ml) at 1 year after second-line failure using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Survival time was analysed using competing risk regression.
RESULTS: Of the 328 patients who failed second-line ART in our cohorts, 208 (63%) had a subsequent treatment modification. Compared with those who continued the failing regimen, the average CD4 cell increase was higher in patients who had a modification without TI (difference =77.5, 95% CI 35.3, 119.7) while no difference was observed among those with TI (difference =-5.3, 95% CI -67.3, 56.8). Compared with those who continued the failing regimen, the odds of achieving UVL was lower in patients with TI (OR=0.18, 95% CI 0.06, 0.60) and similar among those who had a modification without TI (OR=1.97, 95% CI 0.95, 4.10), with proportions of UVL 60%, 22% and 75%, respectively. Survival time was not affected by treatment modifications.
CONCLUSIONS: CD4 cell improvements were observed in those who had treatment modification without TI compared with those on the failing regimen. When no other options are available, maintaining the same failing ART combination provided better VL control than interrupting treatment.