METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
METHODS: COVID-19 samples that tested positive by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and with cycle threshold values <30 were obtained throughout Malaysia. Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 complete genomes was performed using Illumina, Oxford Nanopore, or Ion Torrent platforms. A total of 6163 SARS-CoV-2 complete genome sequences were generated over the surveillance period. All sequences were submitted to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database.
RESULTS: From June 2021 to January 2022, Malaysia experienced the fourth wave of COVID-19 dominated by the Delta variant of concern, including the original B.1.617.2 lineage and descendant AY lineages. The B.1.617.2 lineage was identified as the early dominant circulating strain throughout the country but over time, was displaced by AY.59 and AY.79 lineages in Peninsular (west) Malaysia, and the AY.23 lineage in east Malaysia. In December 2021, pilgrims returning from Saudi Arabia facilitated the introduction and spread of the BA.1 lineage (Omicron variant of concern) in the country.
CONCLUSION: The changing trends of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages were identified, with differences observed between west and east Malaysia. This initiative highlighted the importance of leveraging research expertise in the country to facilitate pandemic response and preparedness.